The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, Modeling and Analysis Subsystem {SWG3.3 Chair, Chris Mooers/RSMAS-UM} In the next five years, produce operationally, real-time model-based analyses and forecasts (with generalized error bars and by downscaling from National Backbone basin-scale or global models) of fields of basic physical variables for the SECOORA domain as needed for a variety of societal applications, including R&D. In the next five years, produce operationally, real-time model-based analyses and forecasts (with generalized error bars and by downscaling from National Backbone basin-scale or global models) of fields of basic physical variables for the SECOORA domain as needed for a variety of societal applications, including R&D.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, Product Identification  A few quasi-operational, real-time, 3D nowcast/forecast systems (w/o data assimilation) for coastal ocean circulation presently exist in the SECOORA domain that estimate sea surface height, temperature, salinity, and current fields, plus Lagrangian particle trajectories.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, {CONTINUED}  These models have a horizontal resolution of a few km, a vertical resolution of ca. 4% of the depth, and a time resolution of a few minutes.  They are driven by tidal models, numerical weather predictions, realistic bottom topogrpahy, and operational basin-scale or global models for open boundary conditons.  They are designed to predict oceanic fronts, eddies, meandering jets, coastal upwelling/downwelling events, mixing events, etc.  These models have a horizontal resolution of a few km, a vertical resolution of ca. 4% of the depth, and a time resolution of a few minutes.  They are driven by tidal models, numerical weather predictions, realistic bottom topogrpahy, and operational basin-scale or global models for open boundary conditons.  They are designed to predict oceanic fronts, eddies, meandering jets, coastal upwelling/downwelling events, mixing events, etc.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, {CONTINUED}  There are also a few 2D numerical models that are used intermittently (viz., during severe storm passsges) to estimate sea surface heights (water levels), depth- averaged currents, tides, waves, and coastal inundation.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, Gap Analysis  In the next five years, there is a need to conduct additional model-observation comparisons to extend the data base of generalized error bars for a large suite of metrics.  There is a need to introduce data assimilation capabilities to the modeling efforts.  In the next five years, there is a need to conduct additional model-observation comparisons to extend the data base of generalized error bars for a large suite of metrics.  There is a need to introduce data assimilation capabilities to the modeling efforts.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, {CONTINUED}  “Forecasters” need to be identified: NWS/WFOs, Ocean Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS, USCG SAROPS, et al.  The “value-added industry” needs to be fostered.  CONOPS is missing.  “Forecasters” need to be identified: NWS/WFOs, Ocean Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS, USCG SAROPS, et al.  The “value-added industry” needs to be fostered.  CONOPS is missing.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, {CONTINUED}  Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) should be conducted to aid observing subsystem designs.  Sub-regional (including estuarine and coastal lagoon) nowcast/forecast systems should be nested in domain-wide models.  Ecosystem and sediment transport models should be introduced operationally.  Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) should be conducted to aid observing subsystem designs.  Sub-regional (including estuarine and coastal lagoon) nowcast/forecast systems should be nested in domain-wide models.  Ecosystem and sediment transport models should be introduced operationally.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, Operational Continuity  Redundant, distributed telecommunication and computational facilities are needed to ensure a storm-hardened, robust system.  The observing system needs to provide adequate observations for data assimilation and validation/verification.  A CONOPS is needed to link RCOOS and National Backbone operations.  Redundant, distributed telecommunication and computational facilities are needed to ensure a storm-hardened, robust system.  The observing system needs to provide adequate observations for data assimilation and validation/verification.  A CONOPS is needed to link RCOOS and National Backbone operations.

The SouthEast Coastal Ocean Observing SECOORA Meeting Regional Association (SECOORA) June 11-12, User Satisfaction  Regular reviews of product adequacy need to be conducted with various user groups on a regional basis.  There will also be a need to communicate with users on a national scale, including coordination with the National Backbone and the value-added industry.  “Users” should range from researchers to forecasters, from super users to end users.  Regular reviews of product adequacy need to be conducted with various user groups on a regional basis.  There will also be a need to communicate with users on a national scale, including coordination with the National Backbone and the value-added industry.  “Users” should range from researchers to forecasters, from super users to end users.