1 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Eastern Canada: a summary of some results of recent research __________________________________________________________ Presented by: Andy Bootsma, Agro-climatologist Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre (ECORC) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), Ottawa, Ontario Presented at: Workshop on “Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region: The Potential Impacts and What We Can Do”. Kellogg Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA, March 22, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

2 Research projects on impacts of climate change (supported in part by Gov’t of Canada Climate Change Action Fund) _________________________________________________________________________ 3 projects (AAFC scientists + collaborators) : Impacts on agricultural production in Atlantic region (Bootsma et al.) Crop yields and yield variability for selected regions in Canada using EPIC (De Jong et al.) Risk of winter injury in eastern Canada (Bélanger et al.)

3 Impacts on agriculture in Atlantic region Crop Heat Units – corn and soybeans ‘Effective’ growing degree-days – barley (GDD > 5  C adjusted for start/stop dates, daylength) Water deficits (PE – P)

4 Major areas of agriculture in Atlantic region Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

5 Change in Crop Heat Units Average Crop Heat Units

6 Change in EGDD EGDD

7 Change in Deficit Water Deficit

8 Potential impact on grain corn Relationship between average CHU and average yield from hybrid trial locations in eastern Canada.

9 Potential impact on grain corn Relationship between average CHU and average yields based on farm statistics in eastern Canada.

10 Potential impacts on soybeans Relationship between average CHU and average yields from variety trial locations in eastern Canada.

11 Potential impacts on soybeans Relationship between average CHU and average yields from farm statistics in eastern Canada.

12 Potential impacts on 6-row barley Relationship between EGDD and average yields from variety trial locations in eastern Canada.

13 Potential impacts on barley Relationship between EGDD and yields from farm statistics in eastern Canada.

14 Some conclusions Corn and soybean yields and acreage likely to increase significantly with climate warming. Barley yields not likely to change significantly; acreage likely to decrease as a result. Change in water deficits not likely to impact average yields significantly.

15 Production scenario Yield (bu/acre) Area (acres) Production (‘000 bu) Corn Present90 5, By ,0008,400 Soybeans Present34 8, By ,0002,200 Barley Present55136,0007,500 By ,0003,600

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model (CGCM1) Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Simulation Mean Temperature Change Spring - MAM 2050s Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

17 CGCM1 Global Coupled Model, Greenhouse Gas With Aerosol Simulation Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

18 Comparisons with other GCM’s – summer period, S. Ont. CGCM1 Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

19 Comparison with other GCM’s –annual period, S.Ont. Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group CGCM1 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Average corn yields vs CHU – USA Locations 1 = Illinois 2 = Nebraska 3 = Indiana 4 = Iowa 5 = Ohio 6 = Missouri i = irrigated (based on average yield of top 10 hybrids in field trials, 4 to 8 yrs data, ) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

21 Increase in CHU for locations in Ontario near Great Lakes Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

22 Heat units (CHU) available for corn Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

23 Change in Water Deficits (PE – P) for future periods

24 Average seasonal water deficits (PE – P) (inches) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

1 = Illinois 2 = Nebraska 3 = Indiana 4 = Iowa 5 = Ohio 6 = Missouri (based on average yield of top 10 hybrids in field trials, 4 to 8 yrs data, ) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

26 Crop Yield and Yield Variability from EPIC model ________________________________________________________________________________________________ EPIC = Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (Williams et al.) Simulated annual yields for baseline ( ) period and 2xCO 2 climate scenario ( ) barley, spring wheat, canola, corn, soybeans, potatoes and winter wheat 29 locations across Canada (not all crops at all locations)

Location of climate stations and GCM grid points Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

28 Changes in monthly mean temperature and precipitation as a result of the 2xCO2 scenario. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

29 Summary of Results Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

30 Summary of Results for S. Ontario/S. Manitoba Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

31 Impacts on Risk of Winter Damage to Perennial Crops in Eastern Canada G. Bélanger, P. Rochette, Y. Castonguay, A. Bootsma, D. Mongrain ______________________________________________________ Forage crops and fruit trees Developed suite of climatic indices (imperfect) Indices for Forage Crops: - fall hardening: Tsum < 42 ° F during hardening - loss of hardiness in winter: Tsum > 32 ° F accumulation rate during cold period - cold stress during winter: days with snow cover – period Tmin < 5 ° F - soil heaving/smothering: rain during period Tmin < 5 ° F

32 Indices for Fruit Trees Fall hardening: daylength at first frost Winter cold: Tsum < 5 ° F Cold intensity: Lowest Tmin Winter dehardening: Tsum > 32 ° F after Jan 1 to last date of Tmin < 5 ° F Spring frost damage: Tsum > 32 ° F, Jan 1 to last 32 ° F Tsum > 42 ° F, Jan 1 to last 28 ° F

33 Climatic Stations in Eastern Canada Compared indices for period to ,

34 Some results/conclusions for locations in Ontario near Great Lakes for period Results for Forage crops: reduced hardening in fall due to warm temperatures during hardening phase loss of hardiness during winter due to periods of mild temperatures less protection from snow cover during cold period in colder regions Moreheaving/smothering in cold areas, less in milder areas of S. Ontario Overall, expect increased risk of damage in most areas of eastern Canada – some areas near G. Lakes less certain

35 Results for fruit trees improved fall hardening due to shorter daylength at first autumn frost less cold stress in winter due to fewer T < 5 ° F in winter; higher T min) more de-hardening in cold areas due to warm temperatures during winter; less in milder regions by lakes due to short cold period) less bud damage due to spring frosts in cold regions as GDD from Jan 1 to last spring frost decrease; more in mild areas (assumes chilling requirement for dormancy before Jan 1is met; otherwise bud burst will be delayed and reduce the risk)

36 Results for fruit trees (cont’d) Overall conclusions: New varieties/species may be possible in current regions Northward extension of commercial production possible More stable production in currently marginal areas due to lower risks of spring frost damage

37 Results of all 3 studies available in Adobe pdf format from A. Bootsma at: Atlantic study available at: Thank you for your attention!

38 Some gaps and needs Need results for multiple GCM experiments Improved downscaling procedures Include change in climate variability Procedures to update results with new GCM’s Improved and more impact models Include soils, management scenarios

39 Some future plans (CCAF projects) Ste-Foy & Swift Current RC’s + collaborators: –Impacts on forage (timothy) yield and quality (east &west) –Risk of winter damage – alfalfa (prairies) –Economics of forage production (prairies) ECORC/PFRA + collaborators: –Impacts on LSRS using multiple GCM outputs –Expand to entire country –Refinement of LSRS climate criteria ECORC + collaborators: –Daily scenarios at 0.5° lat./long. Grid –Multiple GCM outputs –Several downscaling methods –Focus on agricultural areas