Oil: Too little, too much, running out?
The “problem” is normally phrased in terms of supply and demand The world (especially Global North) is seriously addicted to petroleum Large & cheap deposits have been easily accessed But future sources cannot meet growing demand As production declines, prices will rise This will be very costly & could lead to conflicts & “oil wars”
The “solution” is not entirely clear Produce more energy: what kind, how, where? “Drill, baby, drill!” Assert military control over remaining resources “Ecological modernization” to reduce energy use Radical conservation through very high energy taxes Decentralization: everyone makes their own energy
How much oil is there?
Remaining U.S. sources are limited
U.S. oil production and reserves have been in decline since the mid-1970s
it takes 28 m 3 (1000 ft 3 ) of natural gas and from 2.5 to 4 barrels of water to produce one barrel of bitumen. Which is why Canadian tar sands are of such interest
Many would argue that we will find new petroleum & energy sources As production & supplies decline, prices will rise This will pull more costly oil sources into production Substitutes (e.g., ethanol) will penetrate the market Alternatives will become economically attractive We will never “run out of oil,” because demand will decline & it will be used for other purposes
Do we see oil prices rising?
Perhaps there is too much oil! Industrial society has had access to too much cheap oil We have a “right” to low- cost oil & energy No incentives to use it more carefully Strong incentives to sell as much as possible Disruption of earth’s carbon sequestration systems Unforeseeable consequences
What is the “true” price of gasoline (per bbl)? “Marginal Production cost”: $75 Ecosystem services: $55 Cumulative env. impact ($1/yr for 50 yrs.): $50 Cumulative social impacts ($2/yr/ for 50 yrs.): $100 Military protection: $25 Opportunity costs: $100 Producer profit: $60 Total: $465/bbl or $11/gal (Might be too low or too high by a factor of two) What is to be done?