The Energy Challenge Farrokh Najmabadi Prof. of Electrical Engineering Director of Center for Energy Research UC San Diego 2009 TAST Conference Costa Mesa, CA October 3, 2009

Energy Challenge Scale of the Challenge Technical means to meet the Challenge and Can they provide a solution? Economic instruments and the political challenge

Energy and Well Being Most of the data is from IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

World uses a lot of energy! World Primary Energy consumption is 14 TW (2004) Equivalent to ~0.5 EJ or 11.2 Billion Ton of Oil Equivalent pa World energy [electricity] market ~ $4.5 trillion [$1.5 trillion] pa World energy use is expected to grow 50% by 2030. Growth is necessary in developing countries to lift billions of people out of poverty 80% of world energy is from burning fossil fuels Use is very unevenly distributed (average 2.4 kW per person) USA - 10,500 Watts California - 7,300 Watts UK - 5,200 Watts China - 1,650 Watts (growing 10% pa) India - 700 Watts Bangladesh - 210 Watts

Energy use increases with Economic Development Australia Russia Brazil China India S. Korea Mexico Ireland Greece France UK Japan Malaysia 10kW With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate)

Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use. HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)

1.6 billion people (over 25% of the world’s population) lack electricity: Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Deaths per year (1000s) caused by indoor air pollution (biomass 85% + coal 15%); total is 1.5 million – over half children under five Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use. HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita) Typical goals: HDI of 0.9 at 3 toe/cap for developing countries. For all developing countries to reach this point, world energy use would double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1 billion expected in 2030.

World Primary Energy Demand is expect to grow substantially World Energy Demand (Mtoe) 0.5 EJ Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios. World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030

’04 – ’30 Annual Growth Rate (%) Energy supply will be dominated by fossil fuels for the foreseeable future ’04 – ’30 Annual Growth Rate (%) 6.5 1.3 2.0 0.7 2.0 1.3 1.8 Total 1.6 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference Case (Business as Usual)

Conclusions on Energy Need Large increase in energy use expected, and needed to lift billions of people out of poverty Seems (IEA World Energy Outlook) that it will require increased use of fossil fuels Pollution and global warming* Will run out sooner or later There is an urgent need to reduce energy use (or at least curb growth), and seek cleaner ways of producing energy on a large scale IEA: “Achieving a truly sustainable energy system will call for radical breakthroughs that alter how we produce and use energy” *Ambitious goal for 2050 - limit CO2 to twice pre-industrial level. To do this while meeting expected growth in power consumption would need 50% more CO2-free power than today’s total power US DoE “The technology to generate this amount of emission-free power does not exist”

Different Energy Sources affect different economic sectors

Many sources contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases It is more important to consider Emissions instead of Energy end-use.

Technical means to meet the energy need and their issues (Seeking a significant fraction of world’s 14 TW consumption)

Technologies to meet the energy challenge do not exist Improved efficiency and Conservation Huge scope but demand has always risen faster due to long turn-over time. Renewables Intermittency, cost, environmental impact. Carbon sequestration Requires handling large amounts of C (Emissions to 2050 =2000Gt CO2) Nuclear (Fission) fuel cycle and waste disposal Fusion Probably a large contributor in the 2nd half of the century

Energy Efficiency Production: e.g. world average power plant efficiency ~ 30% → 45% (state of the art) would save 4% of anthropic carbon dioxide use of flared gas in Africa could produce 20 GW (= half Africa’s current electricity) Distribution: typically 10% of electricity lost (→ 50% due to ‘non-technical losses’ in some countries: need better metering) Use: e.g., better insulated homes, more efficient transport Huge scope but demand is rising faster due to long turn-over time. Energy Efficiency and Conservation should not be confused

Buildings Consumes ~ 50% of energy (Constructing, maintaining, occupying buildings) Improvements in design could have a big impact (e.g. could cut energy used to heat homes by up to factor of three) Issue: turn over of housing stock ~ 100 years Tools: better information, regulation, financial instruments Source: Foster and Partners. Swiss Re Tower uses 50% less energy than a conventional office building (natural ventilation & lighting…)

Transportation Road transport is growing rapidly e.g. IEA estimates 700 million light vehicles today → 1,400 million in 2030 (China: 9M → 100M) For the world’s per capita petrol consumption to equal that in the USA, total gas consumption would have to increase almost ten fold! Huge scope for more efficient (lighter) cars There have been huge improvements in efficiency of the cars but it has been used to provide heavier cars, lower emissions, traffic, … 20 years turn-over time After the end of oil? Syn-fuels coal & gas, bio material → oil, hydrogen, electric…

What carbon “beyond petroleum”? Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass ↑ 1000 Annual US Carbon (Mt C) 15% of Transportation Fuels

Carbon/CO2 capture and storage (‘sequestration’) Possible in principle from coal or gas power stations (35% of total of CO2 from fossil fuels) and from some industrial plants (not from cars, domestic) – needs to last well beyond end of fossil fuel era (and not leak too much) Downsides not proven on large scale (from coal: 3Mt captured in 2003 vs. 9,593 Mt produced), but can build ‘capture ready’ plants now would increase cost by (2-3)c/kWhr; needs CO2 cost above $25/tonne to be viable decrease efficiency by ~10% (i.e. 45% → 35%)

Potential of Renewables Solar - 85,000 TW reaches earth’s surface  25,000 TW on land, if capture [PV] 0.5% at 15% efficiency  19 TW ~ 1.35x current total use but: cost, location, intermitency → storage? [note – lose (conversion efficiency)2] Wind - 200 TW input  no more than a few TW available (bottom of atmosphere) Biomass - 40 TW from all current growth (farms + forests etc) absorbing CO2 [average solar → biomass efficiency ~ 0.2%] Hydro – 1.5 TWe max, 1 TWe useful, 0.3 TWe already in use Geothermal - total flux out of earth* ~ 10 TW → maximum useful 0.1 TW (well exploited where sensible: 10 GW installed) ; more available by ‘mining’ up to 100 GW? Waves - 1 TW available in principle on continental shelves, 0.1 TW in shallow water

Wind turbines are a developed technology Boeing 747-400 Offshore GE 3.6 MW 104 meter rotor diameter Offshore design requirements considered from the outset: Crane system for all components Simplified installation Helicopter platform

Photovoltaic Plants in the U.S.

Nuclear Power (Fission) Recent performance impressive – construction on time and budget, excellent safety record, cost looks OK New generation of reactors (AP1000, EPR) – fewer components, passive safety, less waste, lower down time and lower costs Constraints on expansion Snail’s pace of planning permission Evolving regulatory climate (i.e., Licensed to build but not to operate) Concerns about safety Concerns about waste Proliferation risk New generation of reactors to maximize fuel utilization (or breed) and minimize (or “burn”) waste.

Economical Energy Production is essential (US energy sales = 10% of GDP)

UK Royal Academy of Engineering study of generating costs: Nuclear base cost assumes 7.5% discount rate.

impact of CO2 cost on levelised Cost of Electricity Solar PV ~$250 $0.35/gal or 5 p/l

Meeting the Challenge: No silver bullet exists!

Energy Challenge: A Summary Large increases in energy use is expected. IEA world Energy Outlook indicates that it will require increased use of fossil fuels Air pollution & Climate Change Will run out sooner or later Limiting CO2 to 550ppm by 2050 is an ambitious goal. USDOE: “The technology to generate this amount of emission-free power does not exist.” IEA report: “Achieving a truly sustainable energy system will call for radical breakthroughs that alter how we produce and use energy.” Public funding of energy research is down 50% since 1980 (in real term). World energy R&D expenditure is 0.25% of energy market of $4.5 trillion.

Most of public energy expenditures is in the form of subsidies Energy Subsides (€28B) and R&D (€2B) in the EU Coal 44.5% Oil and gas 30% Fusion 1.5% Fission 6% Renewables 18% Source : EEA, Energy subsidies in the European Union: A brief overview, 2004. Fusion and fission are displayed separately using the IEA government-R&D data base and EURATOM 6th framework programme data Slide from C. Llewellyn Smith, UKAEA

Need a few good engineers! Energy debate is dominated by activists and lobbyists. Left: “Energy challenge can be readily met by conservation and renewables alone.” Right: “Limiting greenhouse emissions are so costly that it will wreck the economy.” or “Uncertainty in the CO2 impact justifies inaction.” Scientists and engineers are NOT involved in the debate Most proposals by activist and hyped by popular media either violate physical laws, or are beyond current technology, or would not make any sizeable impact. No carbon-neutral commercial energy technology is available today. Solution CANNOT be legislated. Subsidies do not work! Energy market is huge (T$ annual sale) Time-scale for developing and fielding energy technologies are long! We need to launch an aggressive Energy R&D program 5% tax on energy sale = $75 B per year!

Thank you! Any Questions?