International Tourism – A General Overview World Tourism Organization www.world-tourism.org

International Tourism Market Size International Tourist Arrivals 689 million (2001 figure) Total Receipts:US$477 billion Per Arrival: US$ 680 (2000 figure)

International tourist arrivals by region

International Tourism stalls in 2001

World’s Top five tourism destinations

First decrease in 2 decades echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel Lebanon Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia Asian Financial Crisis

World Tourism in 2001 characterized by: 11 September attacks on the United States and the following response

World Tourism in 2001 characterized by: Global economic downturn affecting all major economies at same time

Economic downturn already manifest before 11 September

Sharp contrast to 2000 2000 exceptional year for tourism: overall positive conditions strong world economy relative calm political situation many big events: millennium celebration, Holy Year, Olympic Games, European championship soccer, Expo 2000 Hannover pent-up demand (in particular long-haul) after Kosovo conflict in 1999 and ‘millennium fear’

Impact of the 11 September attacks

▲Destinations / segments relatively less affected or that even benefited ▲ more domestic than international ▲ travel by car, coach, train ▲ rural tourism ▲ ski resorts ▲ camping ▲ bed and breakfast

What is the Current Situation? January – February 2002 – staggered recovery Long haul - slower as a whole But package bookings in UK and Germany - good BA, Hong Kong, Europe, USA Light at end of tunnel

Redistribution during Recovery ▼ Worst hit: national airlines/cruises/MICE/upmarket city hotels/large T.O. ▲ Quiet beneficiary: country inns,specialised tour operators, budget airlines, sports and culture tourism

What has changed? ▲ cost ▲ duration ▲ booking habits ▲ motivation ▲ product/promotion

Short-term forecast Pick up late 2002 and early 2003 Vigorous revival in 2003

Most likely scenario 2002: Mirror image of 2001 Observed evolution 2001 Expected evolution 2002 Source: WTO

Short-term forecast The bright spots: Republic of Korea China

Tourist Arrivals by Receiving Region, 1950- 2020

Tourism 2020 Vision - Forecasts Tourist arrivals (Million) Tourism receipts (US$ Billion) 2,000 1,561 565 455

World’s Top Destinations 2020 Tourist arrivals (Million) Market share (%) %growth rate p.a. 1995-2020 Country 1 China 2 France 3 United States 4 Spain 5 Hong Kong (China) 6 United Kingdom 7 Italy 8 Mexico 9 Russian Fed. 10 Czech Rep. 130 106 102 74 57 54 53 49 48 44 8.3 6.8 6.6 4.7 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7 7.8 2.3 3.5 2.6 7.1 3.4 2.1 3.6 8.5 4.0