State of the Future Index 2002 Adding Trend Impact Analysis to SOFI

The Concept n A State of the Future Index would measure overall, whether the future seems to be improving or worsening n What variables should be included? n What weight should be accorded these variables? (relative importance) n How can the variables be made commensurate? (scaled against normative and dystopic) n How can the non linearity of weighting be accommodated? n How can the integrity of the components be preserved?

The Variables n Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) n Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries n GDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars) n Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Water (15 Most Populated Countries) n Mean Monthly Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere (ppm) n Annual population additions millions n Percent unemployed n Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above in low and middle income countries) n Annual AIDS deaths (millions) n Life Expectancy (World) n Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) n Debt to GNP Ratio: (%) Developing Countries n Forest Lands (Million Hectares) n People living on less than $2 per day (Billions, less China) n Terrorist Attacks, number of people killed or wounded n Violent Crime Rate, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population) n Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free n Net school Enrollment, secondary (% school age) n Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

Forecasting the Variables: 2001 n 1. Linearv= m*t + b n 2. Exponentialln(v)=m*t + b n 3. Power functionln(v)=m*ln(t) + b n 4. Logarithmicv= m*ln(t) + b n 5. Inverse v1/v=m*t + b n 6. Inverse tv=m/t + b n 7. S Shapedln{(v/L)/[1-(v/L)]}= m*t + b

Forecasting the Variables: 2002 n Begin with the best fit extrapolation n List future developments that affect the extrapolation n For each development: probability over time n For each development and variable: impact n Monte Carlo solution to produce a new band of forecasts

Probability and Impact Judgments: CO2 DevelopmentScoreMax ProbMax ImpMin Imp 16. Improved agriculture; reduction by 10% of waste of energy and material in agriculture Solar power, possibly from solar satellites, wind or other alternate sources provides 5% of global power Social marketing by governments to effectively promote health care and other public objectives Cars with low CO2: affordable cars that produce 1/3 the amount of CO2, dropping CO2 atmospheric pollution by 2% Decision making: effective systems for augmenting human intelligence and improve decision making (measurable improvement in 10% of decisions) Sustainability: environmental consciousness is pervasive, affects decisionmaking everywhere Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15% Further industrialization of China, India Miniaturization of machines and electronics; applied nanotechnology becoming at least 5% of the economy of advanced nations Novel protein for food replacing meat, widely accepted, inexpensive Rejection of free markets and return to communism in several transition economies Oil prices climb to 50 dollars per barrel Trade wars and protectionism become the norm Decision making: effective systems for augmenting human intelligence and improve decision making (measurable improvement in 10% of decisions). 0.00

Probability and Impact Judgments: CO2

. GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US) Infant Mortality; Deaths per 1,000 Live Births Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries Safe Water: Pct of Households w/ Access (15 Most Populated Countries)

. Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%)b Annual AIDS deaths (millions) Life Expectancy (World) Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)

. Forest Lands (Million Hectares) Terrorist Attacks, (Number Killed or Wounded) Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population) People Living on Less than $2 per day (Billions, less China)

. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) CO2 atmospheric, ppm Annual population additions (millions) Percent unemployed

. Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries) School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)

5. Biotech in agriculture: improved food availability as well as enhanced animal health, insect-and disease resistant plants, etc. 9. Social marketing by governments to effectively promote health care and other public objectives. 13. Convergence of information/ communication technologies (Including Internet) lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production. 16. Mad cow disease found in every country 17. Global political order: more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions (e.g. weapon of mass destruction, human rights) 22. Inexpensive very long-term contraceptives: wide availability and low cost 23 Mideast war settled 24. Sustainability: environmental consciousness is pervasive, affects decision making everywhere. 28, Anti-crime revolution: the public becoming fed up, reinstitution of the death penalty, harsher penalties, pushing the definition of "cruel and unusual".29. Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. 30. Global ethics: concern everywhere about human rights, concern in peace research and building, in sustainable development. 31. Economic uncertainty: growing uncertainty in world economy, resulting in unemployment swings of 10% from expectations 32. Internet use by dissidents, criminals, terrorists for communications 33. HIV placed into a dormant state through the use of inexpensive and widely available drugs. 34. The number of nuclear warheads diminished by half. The Most Important Developments

36. Elderly labor force: increased labor force participation among those older than age 65, due to improved education and health. 37. Further industrialization of China, India. 38. Non lethal weapons: use by military, police and terrorist of non-lethal weapons including aerosols that induce sleep and sticky foam. 39. Desalination: cost effective desalination eventually providing 20% of needed water 41. Mideast or Chinese- Taiwan wars of large proportions, accounting for more than 50,000 casualties over 4 years 45. Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises: money laundering equals 5-10 % global GNP. 50. Oil prices climb to 50 dollars per barrel 55. The reserves of natural resources continue to expand despite extraction through the introduction of more efficient extraction technologies. 56. UN reform (improved efficiency and accountability) and first steps to global governance (not government). 60. Improved prediction of food harvests and droughts leading to improved production 61. Continuation of sporadic, local starvations; reducing food availability, on average 1% in developing countries 68. Gangs prone to violence double in membership worldwide. 69. Announcements by terrorists of the anticipated use of WMD to cause panic. 75. Decision making: effective systems for augmenting human intelligence and improve decision making (measurable improvement in 10% of decisions). 76. Establishment of the International Criminal Court, with enforcement powers to punish those convicted of atrocious communal violence. 77. Identifying the genomic determinants of behavior The Most Important Developments (Con't)

The Process Used judgments of the Global Lookout Panel in 2001 about what the best (norm) and worst (dystopic) status was for each indicator in 2011 Also used judgments about the importance of reaching the norm and dystopic state. The criteria for assigning a high weight to a variable were: the number of people affected; the significance of the effect; whether some groups seem to be affected differentially; the time over which the effect will be felt; and whether the effect is reversible. The data were scaled by assigning the value of 100 for the most desirable (normative state in 10 years) and 0 for the least desirable values (dystopic state in 10 years). Data were weighted using an S-shaped function that allows the weight of a variable to vary with the value of the variable.

2002 State Of the Future Index

2002 State of the Future Index Illustrating Effect of Increasing the Probability of Global Depression