An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations Norman D. Geddes Michele Atkinson Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc. SBP08 April 1-2, 2008 Phoenix, AZ

The DIME Doctrine Integrated consideration of all activities in the Theater Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic Planning of tactical operations Reduce counter-productive activities Requirement for an Effects Model to support DIME during planning Usable by soldiers at the Brigade staff level Adaptable to other theaters

Nation-States A State operates within a political, military, economic, social and informational infrastructure (“PMESII”) The conditions of the PMESII both constrain and motivate the behaviors of groups within the State There are many types of groups within a State Government branches and agencies Non-governmental organizations Voluntary citizen groups, such as Political groups, Religious groups, Criminal groups, Commercial groups and Tribal or ethnic groups The alignment of the groups is critical to the formation of a stable Nation-State

Group model of intentions and beliefs Groups of interest Specifically focused on groups that are influenced by or perform DIME activities Groups of interest are purposeful Groups are sustained by goals and methods held in common by the members Goals and methods are constrained by the PMESII Groups of interest have common beliefs Groups may differ widely in their belief structures Groups have beliefs about the PMESII and about other groups

Representing intentions Each group has its own planning and acting structure Represented by a Plan Goal Graph (PGG) A knowledge base describing how the group will choose goals and make plans for achieving them A PGG Instance Graph the represents the current state of the groups planning and execution of activities towards its goals Healthcare Roadways Airways Rail Government Project Provide Modern Infrastructure Housing Education Information and Communications Transportation Energy Food Supply Roadway Built Roadways Operated Business Project Humanitarian Project

Representing beliefs Each group has its own belief structure Represented by a Concept Graph A knowledge base that provides the recipes for composing beliefs from observations A Concept Instance Graph that represents what the group believes at the moment Regional Rail Status National Rail Status National Airways Status National Roadway Status Regional Airway Status Local Rail Segment Status Regional Roadway Status Local Road Segment Status Roadway Segment Report Airport Report ATC Equipment Report Rail Segment Report Rail Yard Report National Transportation Status Airport Status Rail Yard Status National Waterways Status

Example scenario From the book “Three Cups of Tea” Four group roles Three tribal villages, One humanitarian There is both direct and indirect conflict of intentions Villages are competing for the project Only material for one project

Humanitarian Plan Goal Graph Have Members Humanitarian Group Appealing Public Message Support Needs Assist Others Have Money Visible Information Events Donations Determine Needs Reduce Needs Perform Projects Provide Temporary Relief Project Completed Perform Building Project Have MaterialsHave Site Structure Completed

Humanitarian Concept Graph Regional Group Status National Organization Status Regional Educational Status National Roadway Status Nearest School Local Group Regional Roadway Status Local Road Segment Status Roadway Segment Report Project Status Report Person Location Report Member Report Conflict Report National Transportation Status Village Group Conflict National Education Status Group Location Project Materials Stockpile Materials Allocation School Person Location Person Member Associate Debt to Person Debt to Group Materials Allocation Report Debt Event

Tribal Plan Goal Graph Have Members Tribal Group Families Barter for Assistance Improve Tribal Needs Have Money Agriculture Commerce Create Debt Debt Repaid Purchase Assistance Honor as GuestPerform Favor

Model Operation Groups interact with the PMESII via Actions and Reports Typical time tick is one day The groups update their beliefs and their intentions each time tick User Interface Persistent Storage Initialization Prior Model Runs PMESII state data Message dispatching Group models

Summary Fine grain matching with historical events is promising Underlying tools for knowledge construction and group behavior generation appear adequate The next experiments will focus on scaling up to 100 and then 1000 groups We anticipate that 1000 groups will meet most tactical needs