Internet Video: The Next Wave of Massive Disruption to the U.S. Peering Ecosystem William B. Norton Co-Founder & Chief Technical Liaison Equinix, Inc. Stanford Networking Seminar 12:15PM, Thursday March 15, 2007 Room 104, Gates Building v0.1

Three minute Definition of “Internet Transit” and “Peering”

Def: Transit The Internet is a Network of Networks. An ISP sells access to the Internet, so… …must itself get attached to someone who is already attached to the Internet. Transit Provider B Transit Provider A $ meter 95 th percentile 1 ) Transit Provider sells metered access to the Global Internet

Def: Peering Transit Provider B Transit Provider A 2) Peering is a business relationship whereby two companies RECIPROCALLY exchange access to each others customers. Why Peer? 1.Reduce Transit Costs 2.Lower Latency 3.More Control over Traffic Peering ISPs & Peering WP..

On the Internet Everyone is a Publisher

Internet Operations White Papers 1)“Interconnection Strategies for ISPs” 2)“Internet Service Providers and Peering” 3)“A Business Case for Peering” 4)“The Art of Peering: The Peering Playbook” 5)“The Peering Simulation Game” 6)“Do ATM-based Internet Exchanges Make Sense Anymore?” 7)“Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem” 8)“The Asia Pacific Internet Peering Guidebook” 9)The Great (Public vs. Private) Debate” 10)“The Folly of Peering Traffic Ratios?” 11)“Video Internet: The Next Wave….” Internet makes anyone a publisher, similar effect now emerging for video

Massive Disruption in U.S. Peering Ecosystem  Short Videos YouTube – founded 2005 –Short video clips – 50 million view per day! –20Gbps of peering traffic Feb 2006 –$1M/month in Sept 2006! –Entering Peering Ecosystem –30 Other competitors  600Gbps peerable? DoveTail Video may dwarf current peered traffic –2010 – 80-90% Internet is Video –Inculcate video guys into peering ecosystem On the Internet Everyone is a Broadcaster Short video clips…Full TV shows… Source: Source:

Massive Disruption in U.S. Peering Ecosystem  Full Episodes “Desperate Housewives” – 210MB/hour –For 320x240 H.264 Video iTunes image 10,000,000 households 2,100,000,000 MB = 2.1 peta-Bytes How long will that take to download? Source: Gbps non-stop ! Just one show Try 250M*180 Channels*HDTV

The Research Question How does one distribute video across the Internet (and how much does it cost)?

Modeling Load SmallMediumLarge Transit CDN Transit/Peering P2P $ per video? Small =Distribute 10 videos every 5 minutes Medium =Distribute 100 videos every 5 minutes Large =Distribute 1000 videos every 5 minutes Transit =Metered pipe to the Internet CDN =Content Distribution Network Peering =free & reciprocal access to each others Customers P2P =PeerToPeer

Modeling the Video Service Provider Distribution Networks Four Models 1.Commodity Transit 2.CDN 3.Transit/Peering/DIY CDN 4.Peer2Peer Four Load Models A: Small Load B: Medium Load C: Large Load Naming of Models Goal : estimate cost : $/video downloaded …Generalized Model

Aggregation Switch(es) Aggregation Switch(es) Aggregation Switch(es) Model all Network Costs Server Servers Router(s) Transit Provider(s) or CDN(s) Transit Providers/CDN Staff Maintenance Contract Maintenance Contract Maintenance Contract $4K each 1Gbps Max Cap $10K each $30K-$150K each 15% CDN Transit $/Mbps Mbps Commit $35 $25 $10 Replace average load in model…

Demand Curve Modeling α = 10 videos/5 min=400Mbps ω =1.6Gbps ρ = 2.64Gbps α = 100 videos/5 min=4,000Mbps ω =16Gbps ρ = 26.4Gbps α = 1000 videos/5 min=40,000Mbps ω =160Gbps ρ = 264Gbps ρ=6.6xα 95 th % ω~ 4 x α α = average load ρ = peak load (6.6*α) ω =95th percentile (4*α)

Model 1C – Large Load Commodity Transit Server1 GigE Switch1 Upstream ISPs : Server24 8 * 10GE to upstreams each :::: Router1 10G Server262 Server263 Server264 : : GigE Switch14 : Router2 Router4 10G

Model 2C: CDN Large Load

Model 3C: Transit/Peering Large Load

Model 4C: P2P Large Load

Summary Per Video Cost Of delivery

Observation/Implications Internet Transit Supply ▼ Internet Transit Price ▲ Internet Transit Model  src/dst specific Bottlenecks –IX Power, Router Capacity, Peer’s Capacity, –Backbone Capacity, Last Mile bottleneck, 100G NIC? –Do I need to upgrade $$$$ gear to support my competitor (peer)? Geoff Huston: “P2P has won. Telco/Cable co trying to keep its 1998 biz plan relevant.”