Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

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Presentation transcript:

Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington

Outline The UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrological Forecast System –Hydrology Model –Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Recap of Water Year 2009 –ENSO conditions and 2008 Streamflow forecast reliability Water year 2010 –Warm ENSO “El Niño Travieso” or the Mischievous Boy –Land-surface conditions: Soil Moisture (SM) and Surface Water Equivalent (SWE) UW-West-wide Seasonal Hydrological Forecast System: Forecasting 2010 streamflow Summary

West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast

Soil Moisture State Snowpack State VIC

UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System NCDC COOP station obs. up to 3 months from current local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs soil moisture snowpack VIC Hydrologic model spin up SNOTEL Update streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff 25 th Day, Month years back index stn. real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap Hydrologic forecast simulation Month 12 INITIAL STATE Observed SWE Assimilation ensemble forecasts ESP traces CPC-based outlook NCEP CFS ensemble NSIPP-1 ensemble

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) ICsSpin-upForecast observed recent met data to generate “perfect” ICs ensemble of historical met data to generate ensemble forecast hydrologic state Applications: climate forecast

Streamflow forecast (ESP) Historical Streamflow (simulated) 1-yr […] Simulated Streamflow

Recap of WY 2008

ECMRWF ENSO anomaly Predicted Neutral (N) Observed La Niña (LN) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts _forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/

Oct 1st Jan 1stApr 1stJul 1st Soil Moisture and Snow (SWE) Evolution WY 2009

WY 2009 Streamflow Forecast

3.4 Range to 0.2 Ensemble Mean Historical Mean Ensemble Members Observed Extremes Observations WY 2009 Ensemble Mean N years Validation Plot for 2008 Forecast ( ) at MILNE for predicted Neutral

3.4 in 2009 ~ -1 Ensemble Mean Historical Mean Ensemble Members Observed Extremes Observations WY 2009 Ensemble Mean LN years Validation Plot for 2008 Forecast ( ) at MILNE based on the observed LN

Water Year 2010

WY 2008 ENSO Transition States WY 2009WY 2010 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts _forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMRWF ENSO anomaly Forecast of September 2009

April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The MILNE, ID from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.

The Mischievous Boy or “El Niño Travieso” visits the PNW NOAA, CFS Precipitation Forecast Oct-Nov-Dec Dec-Jan-Feb IRI-Multi-model Probability Precipitation Forecast

Historical Streamflows ( ) All Years Historical Mean Ensemble Members Observed Extremes Ensemble Mean EN years

WY 2010 Forecast

Initial Conditions (changes in weeks) SM Sept 25thSept 1stOct 11th SWE

Streamflow Forecast on MILNE All Years Ensemble Mean Historical Mean Ensemble Members Observed Extremes

3.4 Range to 1.8 Based on MILNE Climatology ESPs Ensemble Mean Historical Mean Ensemble Members Observed Extremes Ensemble Mean EN years

Forecast and Observed Streamflow Differences EN ensemble mean - Observed Average (%) 6 months 12 months MILNE

Streamflow Forecast

Summary Expected Neutral ENSO conditions at the beginning for the WY 2009 showed good agreement with respect to observed streamflows (simulated) during the Fall- Winter seasons; for streamflow forecast during Sumer of 2009 forecast streamflow was underestimated Recent increments in SM over parts of the Snake River Basin have improved the expected streamflows for WY However, a conspicuous warm phase of ENSO (EN) increase the likelihood of below normal streamflows over the SRB. Stations along the mid- and upper SRB showed streamflows 8 to 12% (in average) below historical averaged streamflows for the following 6 months

SWESM 2008 JanuaryJune January 2009

Soil Moisture and Snow Water Anomalies Oct 2008Jan 2009Jun 2009 Sep 2009

Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent Percentiles

SWE and SM Simulated FebruaryMarchApril Climatological

ESP Simulated Streamflow from Observations

Simulated Climatological SWE and SM for the 2008 and 2009 WY SWE SM

Based on MILNE Simulated Observations All Years Ensemble Mean Observed Mean Ensemble Members Observed Extremes Observations WY 2009 Ensemble Mean N years

UW Forecast System Less than 10% of the stations are around the Climatology the rest are below at the North of Columbia river basin Around 50% of the stations at the eastern portion of the basin with Stremflows around the climatology In the stations related with hydropower generation at 81% ofthe normal Dalles at 88% of the normal