How well can we predict the unpredictable climate? Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec. 2004 Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The syllabus says: Atmosphere and change  Describe the functioning of the atmospheric system in terms of the energy balance between solar and long- wave.
Advertisements

Accelerating Change in the Arctic? Perspectives from Observations and Global Climate Models David Lawrence NCAR With contributions from Marika Holland,
Slide 1 Predicting the Climate of Europe: the THOR project Laurent Mortier – University of Paris for Detlef Quadfasel (co-ordinator), University of Hamburg.
1 Changing Earth’s Climate. `The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate ' Intergovernmental Panel.
1.Sea Ice and Snow cover -Evidences As they melt mountain glaciers leave behind the an altered landscape with low albedo. a. shrinking glacial are around.
MET 112 Global Climate Change - Lecture 11 Future Predictions Craig Clements San Jose State University.
Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GE 101 – Spring 2006 Boston University Myneni L28:
Climate Change and its consequences Bill Menke October 4, 2005.
The Ocean General Circulation (satellite)
What role does the Ocean play in Global Climate Change?
MET MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 13 Climate Change Impacts: Present and Future II Dr. Craig Clements.
IPY Satellite Data Legacy Vision: Use the full international constellation of remote sensing satellites to acquire spaceborne ‘snapshots’ of processes.
Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.
Ocean Circulation By: Samantha Hampton In Partnership With: Dr. Zafer Top.
Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.
Brief Climate Discussion William F. Ryan Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania State University.
4. Models of the climate system. Earth’s Climate System Sun IceOceanLand Sub-surface Earth Atmosphere Climate model components.
Part 7 Ocean Acidification, Weather and Melting Permafrost.
Climate change risk in an unknowable future Ed Mathez American Museum of Natural History 18 November 2011.
The Science of Climate Change Why We Believe It and What Might Happen Dave Stainforth, University of Exeter Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
{ Lesson 4: Impacts of climate change – globally & locally Section 10.2 & 10.3.
US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.
The cryosphere. Glaciers (5.3.2) Snow Cover (5.3.3) Greenland Ice Sheet (5.3.4) Arctic Sea Ice (5.3.5) Mountain Permafrost (5.3.6) Components of the Cryosphere.
Martin Sommerkorn WWF International Arctic Programme.
Mark C. Serreze Julienne Stroeve, Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, Marika Holland, Stephanie Renfrow, Matt Savoie Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental.
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Authors: Wieslaw Maslowski, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Matthew Higgins, and Andrew Roberts Brian Rosa – Atmospheric Sciences.
STUDI Land Surface Change & Arctic Land Warming Department of Geography Jianmin Wang The Ohio State University 04/06/
European capacity building initiativeecbi Climate Change: an Introduction ecbi Workshops 2007 Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant european.
Planet Earth is warming … Greenhouse Warming in 21 st Century Evidence that rising CO2 levels are changing climate Fresh water resources More intense.
Introduction to Climate Change Science. Weather versus Climate Weather refers to the conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time, such as.
Dr. Don Perovich January 11, 2007 NOAA/NSTA Web Seminar The Ocean’s Role in Weather and Climate.
CLIMATE SYSTEM AND WEATHER. WEATHER Weather refers to: The state of the atmosphere in a particular place and time. Weather occurs over short time periods.
Modern Climate Change Darryn Waugh OES Summer Course, July 2015.
Prof. David G. Vaughan British Antarctic Survey Sea-level rise: another face of climate change.
Lecture 5 The Climate System and the Biosphere. One significant way the ocean can influence climate is through formation of sea ice. Sea ice is much more.
Physics of Planetary Climate Cors221: Physics in Everyday Life Fall 2010 Module 3 Lecture 9: Consequences of Global Warming.
Understanding the Science of Climate Change Susquehanna University January 9, 2015
Climate & Climate Change Ch. 21 Part 2. Here’s what you researched & presented as a evidence to support the statement that climate is changing… 1.snow.
The realities of climate change S. Mulkey June 2006 Stephen Mulkey, PhD Director, Research & Outreach/Extension School of Natural Resources and Environment.
Climate Model Simulations of Extreme Cold-Air Outbreaks (CAOs) Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin-Madison John Walsh International.
Global Climate Change The Evidence and Human Influence Principle Evidence CO 2 and Temperature.
Stockholm Seminar 8th June 2010 KVA Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm Environment Institute Anthropogenic global environmental.
Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 The Influences of Changes.
Greenhouse Effect None Like it Hot. Three primary gases which absorb infrared (IR) energy:
The realities of climate change The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. IPCC 2nd Assessment Report,
An Overview of the Observations of Sea Level Change R. Steven Nerem University of Colorado Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences Colorado Center.
1.Abrupt climate change 2.Greenhouse gases in the past 3.Climate change simulation Atlas Week 2008 Climate Change: How Physics Lays the Basis.
Your “Do Now”5/25 Take ½ sheet of paper Write down 5 things you remember from the visit by the GVSU scientists yesterday.
Are Humans Causing Global Warming? How do we know? What is the Evidence?
The Changing Arctic: Recent Events & Global Implications Martin O. Jeffries National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Division of Arctic Sciences.
GREENHOUSE EFFECT. What Is Greenhouse Effect??? an atmospheric heating phenomenon, caused by short-wave solar radiation being readily transmitted inward.
Evidence of Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change.
Observations of on-going Arctic change Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA PMEL, J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins, J. Calder.
What science is needed for adaptation? “effective adaptation requires a sound physically- based understanding of climate change, often at levels of detail.
IPY/NSTA Web Seminar: Arctic and Antarctic Living Systems LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP Thursday, December 20, 2007.
How it happens and how it affects us.
Global Environmental Change Climate Change, Global Warming… …what’s going on?
Insolation INcoming SOLar radiATION Strength is dependent on 1.Angle of insolation 2.Duration of insolation 3.Type of surface receiving the insolation.
Climate Change Ch. 12 Study Guide. 1. Identify 2 physical features and explain how they influence the climate. Latitude Elevation.
Copernicus services 1 6 services use Earth Observation data to deliver … Sentinels Contributing missions in-situ …added-value products.
Global Warming The heat is on!. What do you know about global warming? Did you know: Did you know: –the earth on average has warmed up? –some places have.
© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change Fact or Fiction? Graham Butler – Met Office PWS Advisor South Tyneside 4 th December 2009.
Bochum University of Applied Sciences
Ocean Currents What causes them?
Warm Up #1 How do you think tornadoes form?
Global Warming Hurts Humans
Climate change WORLD AT RISK.
Fig. 10.
Lesson 4: Impacts of climate change – globally & locally
Interactions between the Oceans and the Atmosphere
Presentation transcript:

How well can we predict the unpredictable climate? Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute How well can we predict the unpredictable climate? Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute

Content of this presentation The overall climate picture –Uncertainty - the ”loaded dice” and can we insure against the risk? –Lack of knowledge and IPY

We are the first generation that influences global climate and the last generation to escape the consequences Norwegian Glacier Museum, 1991

Natural climate changes _ CO 2 level in 2004

CO 2 leads CH 4 which leads temp. Source: EPICA team. Nature, 10 June 2004

Source: Meteorologisk Institute, Oslo, November 2004

Predicting the unpredictable climate The greenhouse effect is certain - without it no humans! Uncertainties for the future include: Balance between natural and human effects, including variations in output of the sun. Feedbacks, including clouds, albedo, snow and ice, vegetation, carbon storage, atmosphere/ocean interaction Averages can be predicted – not single events. This is the ”loaded dice”

Comparing observed and projected changes Winter (D,J,F) 1990’s -2090’s Winter (D,J,F)

Southern Europe July/August temperatures, as deviation from mean. * below is 2003 summer Observed (black) and climate models (colour) Source: Stott, Stone, Allen. Nature, 2. Dec. 2004

Daily mortality, B-W, Germany Per people. Note 2003 heatwave Source: Schär and Jendritzky, Nature 2 December B-W = Baden-Wurttemberg, Sozialministerium

The Greenland Ice Sheet Satellite Data Documents the Changes

Insuring against climate change? Association of British Insurers in October 2004: ”Global economic losses caused by natural weather catastrophies have increased 10-fold over past 40 years.” ”Damage now increasing 2-4%/year from changing climate.” Mainly floods, storms,avalanches Sea level now rising 2 mm/year, Holland sinks 2 cm/year The Pentagon weather nightmare (“Abrupt climate change”) “The day after tomorrow”

Understanding and Projecting the Changes in the Oceanic Conveyor Belt is a Critical Question for Science

Note Downward Trend beginning in late 1970’s Nine (9) Models Source: Cubasch et al. 2001

Observations so far show no weakening of the ocean transport

International Polar Year An intense burst of activity combining, ground observations and satellites, to give a data set for improving climate models and predictions A permanent legacy of improved Arctic cooperation Arctic/Antarctic ocean teleconnections – thermohaline circulation and the climate of lower latitudes