'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration? Prof. Andrew Millington Dept. of Geography, TAMU

2 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one?

3 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Environmental migrants and refugees 175 million people live outside their country of birth million refugees from armed conflicts million refugees from natural disasters and famine Majority of environmental migrants/refugees have moved since 1980 Cross-border migrants currently mainly social and economic opportunists currently mainly social and economic opportunists economic migrants fastest growing group economic migrants fastest growing group Internally displaced persons currently mainly environmental and political refugees currently mainly environmental and political refugees

4 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Refugees and environmental refugees Conflicts and Disasters Traditional Refugees: Persecution, Human rights violations, Repression, Conflict Environmental Refugees: Natural disasters, Environmental degradation Environmental Refugees: Anthropogenic disasters

5 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Refugees and environmental refugees Similarities between traditional and environmental refugees Forced nature of migration Forced nature of migration Need for material assistance Need for material assistance Need for permission to re-locate Need for permission to re-locate Debate raging at present: Should environmental migrants be treated, and have same status as, traditional refugees as codified in International Law and guarded by the UN? Should environmental migrants be treated, and have same status as, traditional refugees as codified in International Law and guarded by the UN?

6 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Defining environmental refugees Originally identified and broadly defined by UN researcher El- Hinnawai (1985). “People who migrate from their usual residence due to changes in their ambient non-human environment” Diane Bates (2002) INVOLUNTARYCOMPELLEDVOLUNTARY ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEE ENVIRONMENTAL EMIGRANT MIGRANT

7 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 (Global) Environmental change Global environmental change Systemic change Systemic change Climate change Cumulative change Cumulative change Deforestation, desertification Regional and local environmental change Water pollution Water pollution

8 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Migrants from disasters FOR MORE INFO... Link> Montserrat Juicy Geography Rapid onset Natural or technological

9 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Migrants from expropriation FOR MORE INFO... Link>International Rivers Network Rapid onset Development or Ecocide

10 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Migrants from deterioration FOR MORE INFO... Link> UNEP GRID Slow onset Pollution or Depletion

11 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Internal Displacement FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau Afghanistan 200, 000 June 2005 Angola Aug 2005 Indonesia (Aceh) Dec 2004 Sri Lanka June 2005 Sudan Mar 2005 Internally displaced persons - IDPs

12 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Earthquakes and IDPs FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau Number Total deaths Total affected (mills)Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Earthquake data (Pop Ref Bureau)

13 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

14 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Environmentally-IDPs in the USA Hurricane Katrina “In…14 days the hurricane scattered as many as 1 million evacuees across the US…” “In…14 days the hurricane scattered as many as 1 million evacuees across the US…” “Many evacuees are putting down roots in new areas and saying they’ll never return.” “Many evacuees are putting down roots in new areas and saying they’ll never return.” “…the largest displacement of Americans in 150 years…as if the entire Dust Bowl occurred in 14 days” Peter Grier, Christian Science Monitor, Sept “…the largest displacement of Americans in 150 years…as if the entire Dust Bowl occurred in 14 days” Peter Grier, Christian Science Monitor, Sept

15 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Environmentally-IDPs in the USA

16 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 International environmental refugees: Haiti 20% (1.3 million) of population emigrated, to USA Political oppression Environmental basis High population growth High population growth 33% of land suitable for cultivated: 60% cultivated 33% of land suitable for cultivated: 60% cultivated 80% population chronically malnourished 80% population chronically malnourished Cost of Haitian migrants to Florida $250 million 17x USAID annual spent on environmental safeguards in entire Caribbean

17 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 International environmental migration: historical contexts

18 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Migration gradient Driven outright by environmental pressures Voluntary economic opportunists Poverty

19 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Where are today’s 25 million environmental migrants? Africa – 16 million Sahel (5 mill), Horn and Sudan (4 mill) Sahel (5 mill), Horn and Sudan (4 mill) China – 6 million Mexico – 1 million 135 million - threatened by severe desertification 550 million – nations with chronic water shortages

20 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 …and tomorrow’s environmental migrants? 37 million by 2010 Most in sub-Saharan Africa Most in sub-Saharan Africa Global change Drought – 50 million Drought – 50 million Sea Level Rise – 162 million Sea Level Rise – 162 million Bangladesh 26, Egypt 21, China 73, India 20, Small Island States million - threatened by severe desertification 1 billion – nations with chronic water shortages FOR MORE INFO... Link>Tearfund ‘Feeling the Heat’

21 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Tomorrow’s environmental migrants – Tomorrow’s world Asian migrants to Europe and North America? Caribbean and Latin American migrants to North America and Europe? Asian migrants to Australia and NZ? Internally displaced persons?

22 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration? Does global environmental change accelerate immigration? √ Majority of 25million environmental migrants since 1980 – 1995 ? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards X Most of IDPs, not immigrants Will global environmental change accelerate immigration? Will global environmental change accelerate immigration? √ Environmental migrants projected to double by 2010 ? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards X Many still IDPs, but more will migrate

23 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Responsibilities and Responses Analogies with the ‘polluter pays principle’ Increase the legal scope of refugee Better understanding of interplay of causes of migration Better targeting of aid monies Recognition of the value of refugees in a globalized economy

24 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006 Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one?