NADIR – Focus Area V: Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008 David FalconerUniversity of Alabama &

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Presentation transcript:

NADIR – Focus Area V: Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008 David FalconerUniversity of Alabama & NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL Tim Fuller-RowellUniversity of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO Dusan OdstrcilUniversity of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO Vic PizzoNOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO Jimmy RaederSpace Science Center, University of New Hampshire, New Hampshire, NH

Lead Times in Forecasting ObservationsLead time Heliospheric disturbances at L1~30-50 min Coronal eruptions ~1-3 days Solar active regions ~3-5 days

Larger Lead Time of Geoeffectivity Predictions DAY 1DAY 2DAY 3 DAY 4  Probabilities of the solar eruption (A%), interplanetary shock (B%), and ejecta (C%), and geo-effectivity (D%) before the actual eruption  Pre-computed scenarios ready if actual eruption happens EARTH ACTIVE REGION EARTH SHOCK EJECTA ACTIVE REGION

Photospheric Magnetic Field CME Probabilistic Model C AR =E26S10 P CME = 16% R CME = 47 0 V CME = slow C AR =E13S10 P CME = 15% R CME = 49 0 V CME = slow C AR =E00S10 P CME = 13% R CME = 51 0 V CME = slow C AR =W13S10 P CME = 17% R CME = 52 0 V CME = slow C AR =W26S10 P CME = 15% R CME = 50 0 V CME = slow

CME Probabilistic Model CME Initial Parameters C AR =E40S10 P CME = 16% R CME = 47 0 Run 1 V=1000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 2 V=1000 km/s R = 40 0 Run 3 V=1000 km/s R = 60 0 Run 4 V=1500 km/s R = 20 0 Run 5 V=1500 km/s R = 40 0 Run 6 V=1500 km/s R = 60 0 Run 7 V=2000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 8 V=2000 km/s R = 40 0 Run 9 V=2000 km/s R = 60 0

CME Initial Parameters ICME Propagation

RUN 7: V = 2000 km/s, R = 20 0 RUN 4: V = 1500 km/s, R = 20 0 RUN 1: V = 1000 km/s, R = 20 0 ICME Propagation Ensemble Study RUN 2: V = 1000 km/s, R = 40 0 RUN 3: V = 1000 km/s, R = 60 0 RUN 5: V = 1500 km/s, R = 40 0 RUN 6: V = 1500 km/s, R = 60 0 RUN 8: V = 2000 km/s, R = 40 0 RUN 9: V = 2000 km/s, R = 60 0

Ensemble Study Disturbances at Geospace

Ensemble Study All-Clear Conditions 12/0912/1112/1012/1212/1412/1512/13 SUN-EARTH Run 1 V=1000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 3 V=1000 km/s R = 60 0 Run 4 V=1500 km/s R = 20 0 Run 5 V=1500 km/s R = 40 0 Run 6 V=1500 km/s R = 60 0 Run 7 V=2000 km/s R = 20 0 Run 8 V=2000 km/s R = 40 0 Run 9 V=2000 km/s R = 60 0 EAST LIMB WEST LIMB 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% -100% Strength: Run 2 V=1000 km/s R = % - 25%

Ensemble Studies All-Clear Conditions 12/0912/1112/1012/1212/1412/1512/13 SUN-EARTH EAST LIMB WEST LIMB 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 25% -100% Strength: 0% - 25% :00 Run1Run2Run3 Run4Run5Run6 Run7Run8Run :00 Run1Run2Run3 Run4Run5Run6 Run7Run8Run :00 Run1Run2Run3 Run4Run5Run6 Run7Run8Run9

All-Clear Conditions Probabilistic Forecast 12/0912/1112/1012/12 12/14 12/1512/13 25% - 50 %0% - 25 %25% - 50 % Probability: Based on Observations of :00 UT 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 Date of Disturbance at Earth Date of Eruption at Sun

Eruption Observed Prediction of ICME Parameters Lead Time ~ 1-2 days

Computational System at Univ. New Hampshire Meerkat: cluster of 40 PlayStation 3 game consoles Cluster is controlled from a quad-processor head node OpenGGCM has beedn ported to the cluster; runs > 5 times faster than on Opteron 246 nodes Zaphod cluster ENLIL has been ported on quad-processor head node; runs > 5 times faster than on devmoels-01 at SWPC

Solar Wind Velocity – Messenger/Mercury Flyby

Solar Wind Predictions – Streams at Earth

ENLIL-OpenGGCM: Shock Interaction with Magnetosphere Work in progress..