Forest simulation models in Slovenia: main developments and challenges WG1 COST ACTION FP0603: Forest models for research and decision support in sustainable forest management 1st Workshop and Management Committee Meeting. Institute of Silviculture, BOKU. 8-9 of May 2008 Vienna, Austria by Tom Levanič, Slovenian Forestry Institute

Main features of Slovenia forests Forest cover (total/share): 1.2 mio hectares / 60% (surface is increasing !!!) Growing stock, annual growth and cuts (data 2003): 286 mio m3 (248 m3/ha) / 7,29 mio m3 (6.1 m3/ha) / 2.72 mio m3 (39%) Main species: Beech, Silver fir, Norway spruce, Oaks, Mapel, Ash, Pines Main non-wood products and services: Fungi Hunting Different forest functions – water and air quality, recreation,... Main risks: Forest fires, insect outbreaks, increasing drought periods, agriculture (in lowlands) Management and silvicultural characteristics: Sustainable and multipurpose management in accrodance with princples of environmental protection and natural values Permanent and optimal functioning of forests as ecosystems Implementation of all their functions on a permanent basis

Basic modelling Use of databases, GIS systems and if-then relationship, included are DEM, different layers (soil type, vegetation cards, stand maps,…) Modelling of windthrows in two alpine sites – spatio-temporal analysis We do not use models of “black box” type.

Mechanistic models Forest water balance simulation models WATBAL (Starr M., METLA, University of Helsinki, Finland) - monthly soil water balance model for forest stands BROOK90 (Federer R., USDA Forest Service) - simulation model for evaporation, soil water and streamflow Models for simulation of carbon and water fluxes in forest ecosystems GOTILWA (Gracia C./Sabate S./Sanches A., CREAF, Barcelona, simulates growth processes and how are they influenced by climate, stand structure, management techniques, soil properties and climate change CASTANEA (Davi, H./Dufrene, E./Granier, A./Le Dantec, V., INRA, France) - modeling carbon and water cycles in forests Forest modelling approaches and trends

Models for predicting risk of hazards: Predictive model of fire risk in the natural environment (Kobler and Ogrinc, 2007) Daily updated forecasting model of fire occurence in natural environment (i.e., forest, shrubs, grassland) Geographical scope: entire Slovenia Resolution: temporal: daily spatial: 1 sq. km. Set-up: logistic model, based on empyrical data of past occurences of forest fires in relation to weather (daily metheorological data), vegetation status (MODIS satellite data), relief (DTM), proximity to settlements and traffic infrastructure Model has been integrated into a web-based GIS decision support system (eGIS-UJME) at the Administration for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief

Example prediction of fire risk for April 8, 2003

Data bases/archives on forest simulation models All forest districts are connected into one huge information system. All infromation are kept on a central server running Oracle. Beside this – huge amount of data is collected on a national level at the SFI – monitoring data (Level I and II), national inventory data.... SILVA.SI – combined data on stand structure for the last 35 years – this enables us different spatio-temporal analyses; unfortunately, available only to SFS

Research highlight Describe a country research hihlight/finding in the context of modelling which can be relevant for other countries

Brown bear habitat in Slovenia (Kobler and Adamič, 2000)

Optimal Locations for Ecoducts on the Vrhnika – Senožeče highway (Kobler and Adamič, 2000)

Future challenges Describe the main challenges modelers and modelling face in your country so that can respond effectively to management or scientific questions/problems in your country ?

Innovative references List a maximum of 5 references, the most innovative ones in your country and that provide added value to other countries. DEBELJAK, Marko, DŽEROSKI, Sašo, JERINA, Klemen, KOBLER, Andrej, ADAMIČ, Miha. Habitat suitability modeling for red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) in South-Western Slovenia with classification trees. Ecol. model.. [Print ed.], 2001, vol. 138, str [COBISS.SI-ID ] tipologija > KOBLER, Andrej. Prostorski model požarne ogroženosti gozdov = Spatial model of forest fire danger. Zb. gozd. lesar., 2001, št. 66, str [COBISS.SI-ID ] JERINA, Klemen, DEBELJAK, Marko, DŽEROSKI, Sašo, KOBLER, Andrej, ADAMIČ, Miha. Modeling the brown bear population in Slovenia : a tool in the conservation management of a threatened species. Ecol. model.. [Print ed.], str [COBISS.SI-ID ] tipologija > KOBLER, Andrej, CUNDER, Tomaž, PIRNAT, Janez. Modelling spontaneous afforestation in Postojna area, Slovenia. J. Nat. Conserv., 2005, vol. 13, str , ilustr. [COBISS.SI-ID ] KOBLER, Andrej, DŽEROSKI, Sašo, KERAMITSOGLOU, Iphigenia. Habitat mapping using machine learning-extended kernel-based reclassification of an Ikonos satelite image. Ecol. model.. [Print ed.], 2006, vol. 191, no. 1, str , ilustr. [COBISS.SI-ID ] tipologija >

Assessment of traditional cultural landscape visual quality loss due to spontaneous afforestation of abandoned lands Kobler (2002)

Modelling Spontaneous Afforestation of Abandoned Farmland in Postojna area (Kobler and Cunder, 2005)