Forecasting for AMMA John Methven, University of Reading Mat Evans, University of Leeds

Forecasting Tools (Dry Run) Reverse Domain Filling trajectories: - 3D domain centred on Niamey - vertical section along 13.5N (for ready made images) - vertical section along 2.0E finescale structure and orientation of air masses  finescale structure and orientation of air masses Accumulated emissions along trajectories (when in BL): - anthropogenic (NOx inventory) labelling polluted air masses - biogenic (isoprene inventory)  labelling polluted air masses ECMWF forecasts of: (0.35 degree resolution). BL height, convective precipitation (accumulated over 6 hours), T(2m), T_dew(2m), low-, mid-, high-level cloud (0.35 degree resolution). All from 12UT forecast for lead times T+00, 06, …, 120 hr.

African Easterly Wave passing Niamey 2 October 2005 Images from Gareth Berry (Albany) Northward displacement of easterly jet, encourages convection

ECMWF images (as posted at BADC) Northward displacement of moist air at surface in AEW

RDF3D trajectory reconstructions of theta-e X Y XY Red – high theta-e (moist)Green – low theta-e (dry) D A M

Biogenic emissions tracer X Y XY A M D

Origin of air masses XY A M D D A M

New forecast variables for summer ECMWF fields: soil temperature and moisture Emissions tracers 1. Biogenic tracer to include emissions model for isoprene based on vegetation map and ECMWF forecasts of T(2m) and photosynthetic radiation. 2. Soil NOx tracer. Many others possible to suit purpose.

Types of Forecast Products at BADC ECMWF forecast images. Images along NS/EW RDF sections (for download in Niamey). Images of TOMCAT model near-real time chemical analyses from Cambridge (CO, NOx, O3, …). Domain filling trajectory data (+IDL tool rdfplanner to draw maps, sections and trajs interactively – probably only from UK). Accumulated emissions tracers and closest approach diagnostics (faster to download than DF3D trajs but can still view 3D structure using rdfplanner – need reasonable internet). Plots of the day posted from Reading for flight planning discussion.

AMMA workspace at the BADC Quick look data from the BA146 - flight track, p, T, humidity, O3, CO in ~2-3 hours - other measurements as they are worked up. Flight plan briefs and mission scientist flight summaries. Anyone with an AMMA user account can upload data to the workspace.

Websites for ITOP-UK Forecast website, workspace and archive are hosted by the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) at: Need username and password – online application for access from the same page.