SPACE WEATHER RESEARCH IN THE UNITED STATES Presented at WSEF2002, Adelaide, Australia Dr. Paul Bellaire Program Manager, Space Sciences Air Force Office of Scientific Research Air Force Research Laboratory Click on Image to Begin Animation Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

2 Caused by the Solar Eruption and Geomagnetic Storm of March 1989 Lost Imagery & Data on GOES-7 7 Commercial Satellites Required 177 Manual Operator Interventions Worldwide HF Radio Blackouts; Satellite Control Interference Permanent Loss of 50% of Command Circuitry on Japanese Comm. Satellite Memory Upsets on TDRSS & INTELSAT 9-Hour Canadian Power Outage Affected 6 Million People LORAN Navigation Problems & Compass Alignment Errors Examples of Space Weather Effects 2

3 What is Space Weather (SPWX)? Conditions On The Sun And In The Solar Wind, Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, And Thermosphere That Can Influence The Performance And Reliability Of Space-Borne And Ground-Based Technological Systems, As Well As Endanger Human Life And Health - US National Space Weather Program (NSWP) Terms Of Reference, 1998 ALTITUDE(KM) — 10,000 — — 1,000 — — 100 — — 10 — PHENOMENARELEVANCE MANNED SPACECRAFT & SATELLITE OPERATIONSNAVIGATIONCOMMUNICATIONSAVIONICS AIRCREW & PASSENGER RADIATION EXPOSURE WIRELESS NETWORKS POWER GRIDS H+ e- O+ IONOSPHERE SOLAR ACTIVITY (HELIOSPHERE) SOLAR ACTIVITY (HELIOSPHERE) DOMAIN MAGNETOSPHERE THERMOSPHERE ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION ENERGETIC CHARGED PARTICLES GEOMAGNETIC STORMS CHARGED PARTICLE CURRENTS ELECTRON DENSITY SCINTILLATION NEUTRAL DENSITY AURORA SOLAR RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE GROUND INDUCED CURRENTS Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends 3

4 US National Space Weather Program Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

5 US Government Basic Research Partnerships in Space Weather NOAA SEC Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

6 NASA Space Weather Research: Living With a Star Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends 6

7 The CCMC: An Innovative Multi-agency Collaboration US academic and government researchers now have a new Space Weather Modeling facility at Goddard Space Flight Center, Maryland  The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) for space weather is an innovative multi-agency collaboration aimed at improving operational space weather forecasting  First modeling transition made to space operations in late Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

8 The CCMC: Initial Transition Products Simulation of the solar wind shock event of 6 Nov 2001 using the Michigan “BATSRUS” model Click on image to begin animation Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

9 NSF Science & Technology Center for Space Weather Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

10 NSF Space Weather Research in Solar & Heliospheric Physics Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends 10

11 NSF Space Weather Research in Magnetospheric Physics Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends 11

12 NSF Space Weather Research in Aeronomy & Ionospheric Physics Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

13 Joint AFOSR-NSF research in astronomy and ionospheric physics with the Advanced Electro- Optical System (AEOS) telescope at AF Maui Optical & Supercomputing (AMOS) site in Hawaii  The Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) telescope helps the USAF develop space technologies  Using lidars, radars, and all-sky imagers with the AEOS telescope, researchers study the physics & dynamics of the atmosphere at the edge of space AEOS: A Collaboration With the NSF Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

14 AEOS Research at the Edge of Space – Maui MALT MALT = “Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere”  MALT uses lidar technology and the AEOS telescope to obtain profiles of winds, temperatures, and densities near 100km altitude  MALT enhances current global observing systems and provides data for improved forecasting of upper atmospheric turbulence and space weather, as well as for basic research in ionospheric physics  Lidar Illuminating a Leonid Meteor Trail Time Lapse of Lidar Beam Slewing at a New Mexico Observatory Turbulence at the Mesopause Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

15 Preliminary MALT Research Results Click on each image to begin animation Sodium Density Temperature Winds Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

16 Two New Multidisciplinary University Research Initiatives (MURIs) Started in 2001 PI: Dr. George Fisher UC Berkeley 9-University Team PI: Dr. Tamas Gombosi University of Michigan 6-University Team “Understanding Magnetic Eruptions On the Sun and Their Interplanetary Consequences” “Comprehensive Solar-Terrestrial Environment Model (COSTEM) for Space Weather Predictions” Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

Early MURI Results New Spacecraft Managed by Berkeley Team MURI WILL LEVERAGE SOLAR PHYSICS OBSERVATIONS WITH RHESSI RHESSI will offer solar physicists several firsts: (1) the first ever X-ray and gamma-ray images of flares from 100 keV to 20 MeV; (2) the first ever nuclear gamma-ray line spectroscopy of solar flares; (3) RHESSI will image flares in X-rays with an angular resolution of 2 arcseconds, a factor of three better than previously possible; and (4) RHESSI will measure X-ray and gamma-ray spectra with less than 1 keV energy resolution, a factor of better than previously possible with scintillation counters. 17

MODELS WILL BE COMPARED TO GROUND- & SPACE-BASED DATA The left panel shows a twisted magnetic field loop configuration, computed using anelastic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar magnetic flux, emerging through the photosphere and corona (red box). The expanded blue loops at the top of the figure and the four gray-scale panels show computed coronal field line morphology emerging. The red-green-yellow figure on the right shows modeled field lines (black) and coronal holes (red for positive polarity and green for negative). As an active region emerges, the coronal hole extends further toward low latitudes. Some previous open areas (red & green) become closed (yellow), and field line connections change. 18 Early MURI Results New Solar Physics Simulations by Berkeley Team

GENERATION OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) BY FLUX-ROPE ERUPTION At t=0, the Gibson-Low (1998) analytic expression for an erupting flux rope is superimposed on a 3D quiet solar wind solution. The interaction of the flux eruption with the background solar wind is calculated with BATSRUS. At t=4hr, the CME expanded to ~25 solar radii (25 R s ) and propagated with superalfvenic speed in the background plasma. By this time, the driving plasma “piston” formed a shock, a magnetic loop, and a density cavity. Early MURI Results Adaptive Mesh MHD Modeling at Michigan t=0 t=4hr “Flux Rope” 19

SIMULATION OF A CME Click on image to begin animation 20 Early MURI Results Adaptive Mesh MHD Modeling at Michigan

21 GAIM is Based on First Principles Physics Exploits Multiple Data Sources – GPS, UV, In-situ Satellite Measurements, Digisondes, CIT, Occultation 3-D Time-Dependent Parameters in Ionosphere – NO +, O 2 +, N 2 +, O +, T e, T i Uses an Adaptive Grid System – Global, Regional, & Localized; km Incorporates a Plasmasphere Model – H + Modeled for Altitudes 1600 – 30,000 km 1999 MURI Approaching Maturity USU-USC Global Assimilating Ionospheric Model (GAIM) Computerized Ionospheric Tomography (CIT) Adaptive Model Grid

22 An International Collaboration: SMEI ( Solar Mass Ejection Imager ) SMEI will image the entire sky in white light once per spacecraft orbit, using baffled camera components with charge couple device (CCD) sensors. By tracking CMEs from the Sun to Earth, SMEI will make possible accurate 24- to 72-hour forecasts of geomagnetic storms SMEI will be launched into a sun-synchronous (830 km) orbit as part of the USAF Space Test Program's Coriolis Mission in 2003 SMEI DESIGN Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

23 COSMIC: A Multi-agency and International Collaboration COSMIC = “Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate,” a U.S.- Taiwan joint project to build 6 microsatellites for radio occultation observations, with launch in 2005  COSMIC will provide more than 3,000 GPS radio signal occultation limb soundings per day, globally and in all weather  COSMIC will enhance current global observing systems and provide much needed data for improved forecasting of space weather, and for basic research in ionospheric physics, meteorology, and climatology  Partners include the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and Taiwan’s National Space Program Office (NSPO)  Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends 23

24 World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER) ADELAIDE CITY SKYLINE WISER, with HQ at Adelaide University in South Australia, is an international network of Centers of Excellence. WISER is dedicated to promote collaboration in cutting-edge space environment research and in training of first-rate space scientists. Emphasis is placed on theoretical and computational studies of space plasmas and atmospheres, space data analysis, space weather forecasting, and monitoring the impact of space weather on the Earth's environment and technology. Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends

25 Future US Space Weather Activity Continue reaching out to foreign partners and leveraging the space weather research programs of Europe, Asia, and the Pacific Rim  The European Space Agency is following US footsteps in space weather forecasting, large investments are being made  NASA is developing an international component to their Living With a Star program, particularly with ESA  Australia, Japan, Russia, Chile, Peru, Brazil, and other countries are taking the lead in space research around the Pacific, with Australia hosting the “World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER)” Support the development of the US Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST), the replacement for the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak, Arizona and Sacramento Peak, New Mexico Expand space weather observation facilities at AEOS on Maui and at other sites worldwide, to include advanced lidars, all-sky cameras, Fabry-Perot interferometers, adaptive optics, and new radars Leverage the NSF’s Center for Adaptive Optics, the new NSF Space Weather Science and Technology Center, and new ground-based and space-based observation systems to ensure the development of next generation optical sensors and space environment models Justification Description of SPWX Partnering & Research Results Future Trends