ADNOC Petroleum Institute Quantitative Risk Assessment in Petroleum Engineering Vision/Mission: Internationally recognized and accredited graduate petroleum engineers for reservoir, well engineering, production and operations Focused programs for continuing education and training Industry based (part- and full-time) graduate studies Focused (client driven) technology development and consulting profile Example cases Extremely long ERD wells Complex multilateral and intelligent wells High temperature, high pressure reservoirs Water management and injection wells Field development and re-development options Infill drilling, sidetracking, slender well design and drilling WAG processes Underbalanced Drilling Water-based fluid/production chemistry Fluid monitoring, sampling and analysis Artificial lift Risk Register Results and Sensitivity Process Flowcharts Data Gathering Economic Modelling PU&MU DHSV's and Test Control Lines DHSV or Control Line Failure? Run Tbg below Tubing Hanger No 1.1 Run, Land and Lock Completion String Without GL Yes Change to Backup DHSV Drop Something? POOH and Fish Object. Re-run Completion Yes No Pressure Test String & Set Production Packer Bad Test? Run Upper Completion without Gas Lift No Previous Annulus Test Failed? Remove Plug and Pressure Test Annulus Bad Annulus Test? POOH, Set New Production Packer No Yes No Sting into Lower Completion PBR and Land TH RU WL, Run Plug in Nipple Yes Pressure Test String & Set Production Packer Bad Test? No Completion String Leakage POOH and Recomplete Well Yes Pick Up and Run BHA and Tbg to DHSV's 1 Run Upper Completion without Gas Lift Fail to pull? Pull XMT Bore Protector and Wash Tree and BOP Pull X-mas Tree and Re- run Inflow Test DHSV's Failure? Inflow Test Landing String LS Failure? Retrieve XMT Isolation Sleeve on WL Yes No Run, Land & Lock Compl. String without GL Yes No Overall Flowchart Wash and Scrape Run Shear PBR, POOH, Fix and Re-run Completion Disconnect THRT, Re-run Work Over Riser 1.1 Check WeatherWinterWait (Winter)Yes No Bad Weather? Wait (Summer) No Yes Bad Weather?Yes No GLV Installed Initially? Secure Well, Pull Upper Completion Initial Middle Completion Perforation, GP and Installation Initial Upper Completion with Gas Lift GLV Necessary? Overall Flowchart Drill Well Run X-mas Tree Set Subsea Template Install Lower Completion/ Screens Obtain Rig Slot, Re-entry No Produce Well Yes No Run Upper Completion without Gas Lift Clean Up and Prepare Production without Gas Lift Clean Up and Prepare Production with Gas Lift Produce Well Re-entry Middle Compl., Perf, GP and Installation Re-entry Upper Completion with Gas Lift Clean Up and Prepare Production with Gas Lift 9 Produce Well Insufficient Gas Rate? Obtain Rig Slot, Re-entry 3 Reestablish Flow from Gas Zone, CU and Prep. Prod. 10 Yes Produce Well Case A Case B Sensitivity Simulations Case A Sensitivity 100 % probability for re-entry in Case A. 12 % probability for insufficient gas lift rate in Case B. RankActivityRiskSensitivity Tornado Diagram Coefficient (6.1)Control line failure after landing (before locking) TH? G Bad Test of TH plug (w/o GL)? G Necessary to M&R PP? G BOP System Failure? G Gas Zone Not Producing? G GLV CL Failure after RIH to DHSV? G & 9Bad Pressure Test of Tree Cap (w/o GL)? G156 & G (5)Bad Test of Seals after Locating PBR? G WOR/STT/SSTT System Failure? G (7.2)&9Bad Landing String Test G42 & G Sensitivity Coefficients for Top Ten Risks Sensitivity Simulations Case B Total Cost MNOK Probability (-) QRA Model Spreadsheets Quantitative Quantitative Risk Assessment Process Ultra-long ERD 16” Hole Evaluation - Risk Cost Areas of Expertise: Specialist and generalist expertise in Reservoir, drilling, completions, production Wide international experience Screening options for improved drilling & production Detailed technical evaluations for improved oil recovery Specialized lab facilities Quantitative risk-based economic assessment ML Sidetrack Vendor Screening Well Completion Simulation