Hydrologic outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil.

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Presentation transcript:

Hydrologic outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2008 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 2, 2007, Olympia, WA

Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Discussion and 2008 Outlook

Introduction UW Seasonal Forecast System PI: Dennis Lettenmaier, UW Sponsors: NOAA CPPA program, UW CSES

Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting ICs* Spin-upForecast obs recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast hydrologic state IC = initial conditions ENSO subset … 1999 ESP Can adjust IC by assimilating snow or other observations

Streamflow Forecast Results: West-wide at a Glance

Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Hydrologic Analyses

Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Discussion and 2008 Outlook

Average annual water cycle The PNW hydrologic cycle PNW * Where we are now on average  soil moisture near annual low  runoff near low  nearly all water year precipitation yet to come  snow season not really underway  evaporation not a factor

The PNW hydrologic cycle Note that there is variability in soil moisture now… current

Recap WY2007, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

Recap WY2007, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

Recap WY2007, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

Recap WY2007, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

Recap WY2007, Snow Obs & Simulation Observed SWE

Recap WY2007, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

Winter : seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

Slides Since Apr 1, 2007:  late summer precip was low  one heat outbreak (in July)  soil moistures have dropped  entering new water year with a deficit

Oct 1 Soil Moisture Comparison with Last Year THIS YEARLAST YEAR

La Nina versus Normal conditions: Oct, Nov, Dec oct nov dec precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

La Nina versus Normal conditions: Jan, Feb, Mar jan feb mar precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

La Nina versus Normal conditions: Apr, May, Jun apr may jun precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

La Nina versus Normal conditions: Jul, Aug, Sep jul aug sep precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

Forecast initialized Sep 23 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow Dalles: 92 / 101 ESPESP: La Nina

Forecast initialized Sep 23 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Priest Rapids: 95 / 103

Forecast initialized Sep 23 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Snake: 82 / 96

 low soil moisture depresses flows through June  La Nina compensates, especially in June & July

Forecast initialized Sep 23 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Upper Snake: 85 / 97

Forecast initialized Sep 23 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Waneta: 91 / 101

Forecast initialized Sep 23 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Arrow: 99 / 106

Forecast initialized Sep 23 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Mica Dam: 99 / 106

 no soil-moisture hangover  La Nina yields higher flows in June – Sept.  but lower flows in Apr-May Mica: 99 / 106

Summary current soil moisture deficits in eastern half of basin La Nina tendencies toward wetter and colder climate hydrologic outlook  Columbia R. (The Dalles): near normal about + 5% to north about - 5% to east or southeast (Snake)  wide uncertainty ranges about these forecast averages early season forecast

questions?

This Year’s forecast initialization

Continental US Forecast for Soil Moisture

Slides

1. Introduct