Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential for the PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave Workshop Jim Laver August 2-3,

CPC Contribution to Climate Services Mission: Assess and Predict short-term climate variabilityMission: Assess and Predict short-term climate variability “short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year; “short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year; and consider the longer term context and consider the longer term context Responsibilities & Scope:Responsibilities & Scope: Deliver operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions Make them consistent - globally, nationally and regionally Provide an historical context – with help from NCDC Improve them! Vision: Climate services as reliable and applicable asVision: Climate services as reliable and applicable as weather services weather services

Climate Products Global Environmental Monitoring: Global Environmental Monitoring: Where: atmosphere, oceans, land, ice Where: atmosphere, oceans, land, ice What: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SST What: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SST Alaska/Arctic parameters? Alaska/Arctic parameters? Climate Outlooks: Climate Outlooks: Where: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceans Where: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceans What: temperature & precipitation anomalies What: temperature & precipitation anomalies hazards, drought, hurricane season, El Niño/La Niña hazards, drought, hurricane season, El Niño/La Niña Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for AK? Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for AK?

First Order, Cooperative, Automated,…

CPC is interested in providing real-time monitoring products A historical climatology is required for proper historical context Focus has been on Temperature & Precipitation; Other Parameters??

Products – via CPC Home Page Includes: AO, NAO, PDO, AAO

U. S. Hazards Assessment – Dec 2003

Example: explanation of 8-14 day forecast map. A N N N N 50% chance A, 33% chance N, 17% chance B 27% chance A, 33% chance N, 40% chance B 33.3% chance A, 33.3% chance N, 33.3% chance B Week2 Outlook

CAS CDC Scripps CFS IRI OCN+skill mask OCN ECCA OFFICIAL Seasonal Outlook Tools

Improving Services & Products Through Partnerships National Weather Service: NCEP centers, regional offices, local offices (WFOs), river forecast centersNational Weather Service: NCEP centers, regional offices, local offices (WFOs), river forecast centers NOAA: research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami), applied research funding (Office of Global Programs)NOAA: research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami), applied research funding (Office of Global Programs) Inter-Agency: USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards), NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts), USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days)Inter-Agency: USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards), NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts), USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days) Academic & International: universities, international desks, bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization, Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)Academic & International: universities, international desks, bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization, Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)

Potential: Areas of Common Interest? NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal trends?NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal trends? Multi-model dynamical ensemblesMulti-model dynamical ensembles Reanalysis  Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,…Reanalysis  Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,… Assessment of economical benefits of long-range forecastsAssessment of economical benefits of long-range forecasts Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS)Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS) Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting”Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting” New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity, extremes, Week3, Week4, Winds, Waves, StormsNew product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity, extremes, Week3, Week4, Winds, Waves, Storms

Reprocessing and Reanalysis are Essential Given the continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound. Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System August 2003, Boulder, Colorado National/international coordination is essential to a successful program GEOSS must have an OACS!

The Domain: Regional Reanalysis Domain How does it complement the proposed Arctic Reanalysis?

The End (extra slides follow)

CPC CPC and NOAA’s Goals

Climate Forcing Climate & Ecosystems Observations & Analysis Regional Decision Support Predictions & Projections (includes CPC) Programs Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond OUTCOMES 1.A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions 2.Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and Relationship to 2005 NOAA Strategic Plan