Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro- Meteorological Operations Operational Aspects of the COMET Collaborative.

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Presentation transcript:

Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro- Meteorological Operations Operational Aspects of the COMET Collaborative Project

Participants Stony Brook University: –Brian Colle, Mike Erickson NWS New York City: –Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson Vaz, Adrienne Leptich NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly: –Al Cope NWS Eastern Region Headquarters –Josh Watson NWS MARFC: –Joe Ostrowski

Objective Integrate data from the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES) 1.Into AWIPS. 2.Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) application.

Why ? Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic hydrology on small, fast responding basins.

How?? Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the Web. Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to integrate into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor.

Data Web AWIPS GFE

Web NEUS/nwp_graphics.html

nwp_graphics.html

Precip Plumes

AWIPS 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data Available ~11 UTC 36 Hour Forecast Volume Browser: –Members –Means/Standard Deviation –Probability of Exceedence

AWIPS

AWIPS – QPF Members

AWIPS - Mean

AWIPS – Temperature Members

AWIPS – Wind Members

AWIPS - Concerns Installation Instructions are Available. Still needs some “clean-up.” New “build” issues. Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.

SSHP Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP 1.Deterministically: From the AWIPS GFE 2.Stochastically: From the Stony Brook EPS

Accessing SSHP

1. GFE QPF - Deterministic

Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for use with SSHP Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed

In SSHP Basins: –Lodi - Saddle R. –Gardiner – Wallkill R. –HoHoKus – Hohokus Brook –Springfield – Rahway R. –Beacon Falls – Naugatuck R. –Southbury – Pomperaug R. –Yantic – Yantic R.

2. EPS into SSHP (under development) Experimenting with the Lodi Basin. Stony Brook University is producing hourly resolution basin averaged precipitation. –RR2 Product (ftp’ed): Mean Worst Case scenario Individual member data

Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour 32 Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin

Worst case Mean Average GFE QPF SBU Ensemble Members

Selecting Basin QPF in SSHP

Example Worse Case in SSHP

Future Work Automate the FTP of Data Train Staff Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble hydrographs

The Future in SSHP

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