Two types of uncertainty analysis Uncertainty in the calibration. This is usually called a sensitivity analysis Uncertainty in the prediction. This is.

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Presentation transcript:

Two types of uncertainty analysis Uncertainty in the calibration. This is usually called a sensitivity analysis Uncertainty in the prediction. This is usually called an uncertainty analysis.

Sensitivity Analysis Z&B

Uncertainty in Prediction Z&B

PDF CDF Z&B

Monte Carlo Analysis Z&B

PDF CDF Z&B

Hydraulic conductivity Initial concentrations (plume configuration) Both Z&B

Reducing Uncertainty Hard data only Soft and hard data With inverse flow modeling Hypothetical example truth Z&B

“Truth lies at the bottom of a bottomless pit.” J. Facher, attorney for Beatrice, Woburn Trial “One more run…” “…knowledge competes with resolution…” L.N. Hughes, Federal Judge