Group Status and Party Coalitions Last time: participation in politics Groups and politics

Who votes? Turnout: pct of eligible electorate votes for president (avg 56 pct since 1948) –roll-off: about 5 pct fewer votes are cast in congressional races than in presidential ones in the same election –drop-off: pct turnout in House elections in midterm years (avg: 39 pct since 1946) U.S. turnout in national elections is much lower than in most representative democracies –US holds many more elections than most, with differing ballot composition –primary elections, SMD plurality elections and gerrymandering all affect competitiveness of general elections –barriers to participation are relatively high (physical and psychological)

The Calculus of Voting Vote iff EU(voting) > EU(not voting) –Preferences (net candidate differentials) matter. Turnout biased toward partisan identifiers, but preferences are unimodally distributed –Perceived closeness matters to decision- theoretic “rational turnout.” Most elections are not expected to be close –Values/Attitudes matter. Those who think the voting act is per se important drive up turnout. But civic engagement is correlated with stronger party identification

Rational Choice Models of Voting Decision-theoretic: assume my choices affect no one else’s decisions. –Predicts low turnout unless the “citizen duty” term is large relative to costs; in which case people vote because they like to vote Minimax regret: Vote for your preferred candidate unless there is zero chance that failing to vote for that candidate could lead to your candidate not winning by one vote. –Predicts ~100 pct turnout. Strategic (game theoretic) model: multi-player Prisoners’ dilemma. –Existence of a mixed-strategy equilibrium with low turnout. Cooperative game-theoretic models and repeat-play games open the possibility of either binding contracts among co-partisans or reputation- type games with higher-turnout equilibria. –Key is mobilization: actions to assure members of a coalition that their votes would not be wasted. –voting is low cost, low benefit. Voters can easily be motivated to go to the polls via actual or psychic benefits (network or group effects, for example).

Turnout demographics Mobility matters –registration laws require re-registration when you move. Depresses turnout among the young and among renters relative to older, more economically established citizens Education/Income are predictors of economic establishment. Race/ethnicity may be a proxy for SES or age

Turnout demographics Age: –Under 25: avg prez. turnout 40 pct –Over 65: avg pct Education: High school degree, 52.5 pct in 2000; college grad 75.4 pct Marital status: married, 67.7 pct; divorced, 53.5, never married, 44 pct Mobility: less than 1 year at current address, 45.9 pct; 5+ years, 72.4 pct

Brady and Sniderman Do individuals need to know a lot in order to figure out the “lay of the land” in politics? Do they even need to be able to articulate what they know? No. Emotional attachments are sufficient Strong evidence of “group” thinking