Climate Change: Challenges for Fish and Wildlife Conservation Rick Kearney WildlifeProgram Coordinator Wildlife Program Coordinator U.S. Geological Survey May 21, 2008

Current Knowledge Future Challenges Information Needs Next Steps

Global average temperatures are increasing — Change is accelerating — Change varies in space and time Average precipitation increasing across most of the U.S. — Intensity of rainfall events increasing -- but so are the number of dry days — Increased occurrence and intensity of droughts Atmospheric Changes

Increase in ocean temperatures Increase in North Atlantic hurricane activity Increase in ocean acidity © IPCC, 2007 Ocean Changes: Global sea level rise mm/yr during 20th century mm/yr during Decline in quality and quantity of Arctic sea ice

Summer sea ice extent Source: NASA GSFC Arctic summer sea ice has shrunk 7.4% per decade since 1978 Change in Arctic Sea Ice:

Changes in precipitation and growing season > Changes in plant and animal communities Examples –Habitat loss; habitat fragmentation –Opportunities for invasive species –Increased distribution and prevalence of diseases –Ecological “disconnects” Ecological Effects:

Habitat Loss Lower soil moisture leads to more intense, frequent, and widespread wildfires Erosion on a burned slope after the Buffalo Creek Fire (Photo by John A. Moody) Sea level rise leads to shoreline erosion, wetland submergence, and salinity increase along low-lying coasts

Habitat Fragmentation As stream temperatures increase, the range of coldwater fish contracts From: Flebbe et al Projected Distribution of Wild Brook Trout Current Distribution of Wild Brook Trout

Invasive Species By 2004 only Juniper remains Jemez Mountains near Los Alamos, NM In 2002, Pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak

Plant and Animal Disease Warmer winters could reduce seasonal die-off of pathogens and their carriers - West Nile Virus - Lyme Disease Changes in climate will likely alter the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases - Yellow Fever - Rift Valley Fever

“Ecological Disconnects” Current Projected under doubling of CO 2 WARBLER WARBLER DISTRIBUTION (Burkett et al., 2005) As geographic ranges of plants and animals shift and timing of biological events change, some species will be decoupled from habitats or prey

Globally ~20% to ~30% of species will be at increasingly high risk of extinction by 2100 if global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2 ° - 3°C above pre-industrial levels Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) American Pika Edith’s Checkerspot Bull Trout Current conservation practices are generally poorly prepared to adapt to this level of change, and effective adaptation responses are likely to be costly to implement

Proactive management to help fish, wildlife, and plant populations adapt to changing conditions Models at scales appropriate for management What’s Needed? — Regional climate models — Models linking climate > ecological expression > population response

Basic information on fish and wildlife population / habitat relationships What’s Needed? Monitoring systems to measure ecological trends and to assess the effectiveness of management efforts

National Global Warming and Wildlife Science Center Collaboration involving government agencies, NGOs, academia, industry, and public Forum for joint research, monitoring, and development of adaptive management strategies Workshop in Fall of 2008 to identify priority needs and develop courses of action to meet them

Conclusion: Climate change presents a major challenge to management of fish and wildlife resources A new management paradigm is needed to meet this challenge The time for action is now!