DRAFT – V5.0 Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025 Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere Interactions Ecological Forecasting “… to observe and understand Earth’s biosphere, to enable the prediction of ecological changes that affect the quality of life on Earth.”

DRAFT – V5.0 2 NASA’s Earth Science Vision NASA’s Earth Science Vision for 2025 calls for significant advances in our ecological forecasting capabilities *NASA’s Earth Science Vision for 2025 calls for significant advances in our ecological forecasting capabilities * What is an ecological forecast?What is an ecological forecast? An ecological forecast predicts the impacts of biological, chemical, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people... *See IGARSS ’01 Paper by Smith, Wickland, Crawford, Cihlar, and Schnase entitled Advancing our Biological and Ecological Predictive Capabilities.

DRAFT – V5.0 3 Ecosystem Goods and Services Ecosystems are the basis of a strong economyEcosystems are the basis of a strong economy Goods - Annually, US ecosystems provide:Goods - Annually, US ecosystems provide: –$3.9 Billion in commercial fishing revenues –$206 Billion from agriculture –20 Billion cubic feet of timber –The base of strong recreation and tourist industry Services - Ecosystems also provide:Services - Ecosystems also provide: –Clean air and water for every citizen –Detoxification and decomposition of toxins –Cycling and movement of carbon and nutrients –Drought and flood mitigation

DRAFT – V5.0 4 Ecosystem Goods and Services To sustain their delivery, we have to:To sustain their delivery, we have to: Understand how they are produced naturally … –Biogeochemical cycles –Trophic dynamics –Species interactions –Abiotic drivers –Abiotic-biotic interactions … and how they are affected by change

DRAFT – V5.0 5 Principal Scales of Change

DRAFT – V5.0 6 Interacting Drivers of Change