Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah institute for public policy research BULGARIA AND BRITAIN: A CHANGING RELATIONSHIP Bulgarian Embassy, London, 28 February 2007 Irregular policies on regular migration? The UK’s response to Romanian and Bulgarian accession

A changing relationship Migration is central to UK Bulgaria relationship Dramatic rise in the movement of people Estimates suggest more than 100 times increase in migrants since 2001 Second most popular destination for migrants, most of whom go for short periods and few of whom actually work

Top 5 overseas property markets 2.Bulgaria 7,456 3.Cyprus5,261 4.France 3,356 5.Turkey 2,608 Source: Total listings on three websites ( and on 13 October Spain 23,834

Enlarging concerns On paper, free movement within the EU is a good thing Movement of people between UK and Bulgaria should be welcomed as part of European integration Instead, despite evidence of positive impacts, we have restrictive approach towards labour migration Understanding why these ‘irregular’ policies were adopted to manage such ‘regular’ flows is critical

Why the volte-face? Rising public anxieties about immigration The need for a ‘pause’ after A8 migration Anxiety over numbers Labour market impacts Impacts on public services Social cohesion being undermined Need to be in control of migration Other EU member policies

Rising net inflows

Rising EU25 inflows

Rising public anxieties Source: Ipsos MORI

A8: not so big news? Increase in the stock of migrants from A8 countries, A8 Migrants aged 16+ A8 migrants in employment A8 migrants’ share in total migrant employment A8 migrant’s share in total employment April-June ,40043,2001.7%0.15% April-June ,70075,1002.9%0.27% April-June ,300150,3005.4%0.53% April-June ,900246,9007.9%0.87% Source: Ruhs 2006 using LFS data, ONS

A8: evidence of circularity

Labour market impacts A8 labour migration: young, dynamic, filling hard-to-fill jobs Very little evidence of wage dampening; overall wage growth remains healthy No robust link to rising unemployment Evidence of a virtuous of high-growth, low inflation scenario Reduction in illegal working Some evidence of under-employment

Public Services and Social Cohesion No ‘benefit shopping’ Filling important public sector roles Overall positive reception Some anecdotal concerns of competition for resources (public services and work) Migrants are moving to areas that have not traditionally experienced migration

Implications Contradictions between ‘open’ access to the UK and ‘closed’ access to the labour market May be implicitly promoting irregular working, driving down wages and fuelling vulnerability and criminality Still open to media frenzy around impact of A2 migrants UK Government may still end up looking ‘out of control’ Endorse perceptions and discrimination about Romanians and Bulgarians Undermines the principle and benefits of free movement

Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah institute for public policy research BULGARIA AND BRITAIN: A CHANGING RELATIONSHIP Bulgarian Embassy, London, 28 February 2007 Irregular policies on regular migration? The UK’s response to Romanian and Bulgarian accession