RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies Project duration- 1st September 2003 to 31st August 2005 Dr Ian Holman Institute of Water and Environment Cranfield University Silsoe Bedford

Overview  Introduction to RegIS1  Recommendations for future IA’s  RegIS2- rationale and framework  RegIS2 Interface tool  Conclusions

RegIS- from sectoral assessment….. Most studies: Climate change Sector Impact (effect) ??

…to Integrated Assessment? MODELS & INTERACTIONS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT AGRICULTURE Yields, profitability & land use COASTAL ZONE Sea level rise, flooding & erosion BIODIVERSITY Ecosystems, species & habitats WATER quantity, quality & flooding SCENARIOS Climate and socio-economic change GIS DATABASE Model inputs & outputs, landscape characteristics STAKEHOLDERS

RegIS: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies  1 st integrated assessment of climate change in UK  Considered socio-economic and climate change  4 sectors- coasts, agriculture, water & biodiversity  Interactions between sectors through linked models  Two contrasting regions- North West & East Anglia  5 km x 5 km

The RegIS Study Area Contrasting climate, landuse, landscape

Example results from RegIS1 FloodingAgriculture Scenarios Recharge + run-off Hydrology & groundwater resources Biodiversity

RegIS1 Long model run times No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’ >1Gb of model output per run Questions identified by RegIS team Model application by RegIS team But still successful!

Recommendations following RegIS Included (fully or partially) in RegIS2 Not included in RegIS2  Extreme weather events  More sectors  Uncertainty analysis  Closer integration of user needs  Twin-track modelling approach  National SE scenarios  “Integrated scenarios” of change  Continuous responses to changing circumstances  Risk-based

Rationale behind RegIS2 RegIS1 Long model run times No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’ >1Gb of model output per run Questions identified by RegIS team Model application by RegIS team But still successful! RegIS2 Faster model run times All models linked within an interface Limited targeted model output Questions identified by stakeholders Model application by the stakeholders …….

Key project objectives 1.To refine the RegIS risk assessment methodology into a form usable by Stakeholders; 2.To develop regional scenarios; 3.To identify, with stakeholders, critical impacts, interactions, adaptive responses, and interface design; 4.To develop a user friendly software tool, containing …scenarios,…the metamodels and the input data needed for Stakeholders to analyse impacts, interactions and adaptive responses.

 Based on the DPSIR methodology: Drivers-Pressure-State-Impacts-Response  Developed for planning sustainable development  Used successfully within the RegIS Methodological Framework  Allows facilitate explicit investigation of the interactions between:  the driving forces of environmental and climate change (drivers-pressure);  the sensitivity of impact indicators (state- impacts) and;  stakeholder adaptive strategies (responses).

DPSIR within RegIS2 Drivers: the underlying exogenous causes of change, e.g. climate/socio-economic change, national policy.  qualitative, narrative storylines, e.g. SRES Pressure: the variables that quantify drivers e.g. regional population, precipitation, etc.  regional, quantitative scenarios. State: variables that represent the sensitivity of the system to the pressure variables, e.g. river flows etc  meta-models to derive state variables Impact: a measure of whether the changes in the state variables have a negative or positive effect  derive impact indicators and translate these into impact classes reflecting value judgements. Response: planned (societal level) adaptation that acts on the socio-economic pressure variables  use REGIS2 interface

Drivers (storylines) Pressures (scenarios) State (metamodels) Impact (indicators) Response (user options) Planned adaptation Autonomous adaptation (feedbacks) REGIS2 IAM (based on DPSIR)

Simplified representation of RegIS2 Biodiversity Rural land use Water resources Urban development patterns Flooding Coastal model Fluvial flood model High river flows Water demand Water Availability STATE / IMPACT SES scenarios Climate variables SE variables Climate scenarios DRIVERSPRESSURES RESPONSES Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses Sensitivity, uncertainty and adaptive responses analyses

RegIS2 Interface  User friendly  intuitive  Robust  Fast run times  Allow investigation of adaptive responses, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis The intention: The reality……….

Interface v2.0 Pressures/ Responses Drivers State / Impact

Example results

Conclusions RegIS represented a significant step in local IA RegIS2 will not do everything! RegIS2 will build upon, and improve, on RegIS The RegIS2 tool will (hopefully) be used to explore our uncertain (climate and socio- economic) futures

RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies Dr Ian Holman Institute of Water and Environment Cranfield University Silsoe Bedford