Ashok Swain

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 Both Physical and Economic Water Scarcity (a) Uneven water availability (between and within regions) (b) Disparity in economic, institutional and technological strength  Increasing water demand (population growth, urbanization, waste)  Water pollution (gradually becoming serious concern in developing South)

 Construction of large dams and reservoirs  Diversion and linking of river systems  Exploitation of ground water  Desalination  Water trade

 China: (45%)  USA: (14%)  India: (9%)  Japan: (6%)  Spain: (3%)  Canada: 793 (2%)  South Korea: 765 (2%)  France: 569 (1%)  Brazil: 594 (1%)  Turkey: 625 (1%)  Others: (16%)

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 While the world's population tripled in the 20th century, the use of renewable water resources has grown six-fold  1.1 billion people live without clean drinking water  2.6 billion people lack adequate sanitation  1.8 million people die every year from diarrhoeal diseases  children die every day from water borne diseases

 263 international river systems (covers 45% + earth’s land surface and supports 60% + world population)  145 countries have some share in international river system (92 of them have 50%+ of their territories in these basins)  21 countries receive 50% + of their surface freshwater supply from upstream countries  No magic formula in governing International Rivers.

Percentage within international basinsNumber of countries % % % % % % % % % %11

CountryImport component of water (%) Turkmenistan98 Egypt97 Hungary95 Mauritania95 Botswana94 Bulgaria91 Uzbekistan91 Netherlands89 Cambodia82 Syria80 Congo80

 Early 1990s: Researchers and Policy Makers claiming onset of ‘water wars’-Asia, Africa and Middle East  Agreements were signed: Lower Mekong, Ganges, Nile, Zambezi and many more.  ‘Water War’ discussion was replaced by ‘Water Peace’  1997 The UN Watercourse Convention

 Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses’ adopted in UNGA on 21 May The Assembly adopted the draft resolution by a recorded vote of 103 in favour to 3 against (Turkey, China and Burundi) with 27 abstentions…but not yet ratified. 17 have ratified 18 more needed. Even if it gets ratified, it will be no Magic Wand

1. No War Yet: Sharing of International rivers have caused tensions between riparian nations but has not led to armed conflict. 2. Agreements have Worked: River water sharing institutions and agreements have been resilient over time, even between otherwise hostile riparian nations. 3. Internal Violent Water Conflicts: Decreased water supply has encouraged ethnic strife, urban riots and affected the internal stability. 4. Threat to Human Security: Threat of the global water crisis to human security: food supply, health, migration etc.

 Changes in Rain/snow fall pattern and shifting of Rain/snow belt (increased precipitation in high latitudes and part of the tropics, while projected decrease for sub-tropics and lower latitude regions)  Changes in time period of snow melting and spring runoff  High Risks of Flooding and Drought  Increased Alteration of the River Course  Changes in agricultural water withdrawal pattern  Sea Water Intrusion to Freshwater System

 Worsening of Existing River conflicts (The Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, Mekong and the Indus) These rivers are going to receive decreased runoff in the face of increased demand  Creation of New Water Conflicts (In Central & West Africa and South America) In Central and West Africa, rivers like Congo and Volta are projected to receive increased runoff. Same may be the case with Amazon and La Plata basin. That will ask for increasing intervention to control and also may encourage outside actors to intervene. In many cases, international rivers act as boundary between two countries and the increasing alteration of their path due to massive change in the runoff structure can lead to territorial conflicts.

Global Climate Change and Melting Glaciers  Melting Glaciers  Growing Glacial lakes  Increased Glacial lake Outburst Floods

Climate Change and the Glaciers Mountain Glacier Changes Since 1970 *Positive numbers indicate glacial thinning Source: globalwarmingart.comglobalwarmingart.com

BASINS of CONCERN Increasing Scarcity

Country name Area of cty in basin (sq. kms) Percent area of cty in basin (%) Pakistan597, India381, China76, Afghanistan72, Chinese control, claimed by India 9, Indian control, claimed by China 1, Nepal Source: WWF Total Area of Basin (sq. kms) : 1,138,800

The Mekong River Basin

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BASINS of CONCERN Problem of Plenty

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 Existing water sharing arrangement may come under Threat due to decreased runoff and also change in runoff pattern  Destruction of Hydro-projects, high floods and glacier lake outbursts  Problems in Planing Water Development Projects  Doubts over its Suitability to act as International Boundary  Climate Change, Water Supply Uncertainties and large- scale Population Migration is another big Issue.

 Water is highly subsidized in developing countries  States are still the main players of water supply and financing (75%) while non-state sector (11%) and aid (14%)  Non-state sector manages water systems for only 7% of Global Population. However, it is expected to double by 2015 Water Tariff Sectors:  Household Sector  The Industry Sector  The Agricultural Sector

1. Capital Cost 2. Operation and Maintenance Cost 3. Opportunity Cost 4. Resource Cost 5. Long Run Marginal Cost 6. Social Cost 7. Environmental Cost

 Agenda 21 of the Rio Summit recognized the multi-sectoral nature of water resources development and called for cooperation among those states for integrated approaches to the development, management and use of the trans-boundary freshwater resources.  Water is identified as a central issue in the Millennium Development Goals, adopted by heads of state gathered at the UN Millennium Summit in September  World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) held in Johannesburg in September 2002 (Rio +10) calls for a number of immediate actions for the promotion of integrated water management.

 Addresses basin’s unique culture and history; economic disparity; ecological sensitivities  Flexible to cope with short-term emergencies  Continuously evolving process  Helps to swiftly adjudicate water related disputes  provides platform to facilitate water and benefit sharing negotiations

 Merging Development and Regional Peace agendas in letter and spirit  Not the ‘Diplomats only’ approach  Engagement at the highest political level  Global, regional and local (institutional) initiatives and policies, which are flexible and enforceable  Including Civil Society (local, regional and international) in Policy formulation and policy implementation