Finis Milling &BakingNews MarketFAX MARKET UPDATE February 2005.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
2010 World & U.S. Wheat Situation 2010 Hard Red Spring & Durum Quality December 7, 2010 Jim Peterson Marketing Director North Dakota Wheat Commission
Advertisements

COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2012 RANDALL LOWRY LEIS FEEDS MILVERTON, FEB 1, 2012.
Market Perspective or.
U.S. Durum Wheat Availability and Quality Situation Neal Fisher, Administrator N.D. Wheat Commission 4023 State Street Bismarck, N.D, Phone:
Marketing Ag Commodities, Thoughts For The Rest Of 2013 Rodney Jones Oklahoma Farm Credit Professor of Finance t.
Marketing Ag Commodities, Grain and Cattle Considerations Rodney Jones Oklahoma Farm Credit Professor of Ag Finance.
April 2014 Dairy Commodity Market Situation & Outlook.
APEC 5010 Firm Marketing and Price Analysis Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University.
1 Understanding Basis Definition Influence factors Basics of basis Patterns and trends.
ADM Grain Market Outlook 2014 Agriculture Council of Arkansas Annual Meeting David Glidewell Mid-South Regional Manager December, 2014.
1 Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity Market Update By Jim Sullivan Informa Economics 2007 Agriculture Policy Roundtable Commodity.
Grain, Oilseed, and Biofuel Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University January 18,
Wheat. Kim’s web site for wheat market information agecon.okstate.edu/anderson.
Wheat. Kim’s web site for wheat market information agecon.okstate.edu/anderson.
Market Outlook! Rodney Jones OSU NW Area Extension Economist.
World Wheat Production, Exports, Consumption, and Ending Stocks Production Consumption Ending Stocks Exports 1960/61 – 2003/04 Source:USDA/WASDE: August.
Wheat. Kim’s web site for wheat market information agecon.okstate.edu/anderson.
1 Biodiesel: The implications for soybean and product markets International Oilseed Producer Dialogue IX June 16-17, 2006.
9 February PINOT GRIS Hard to find and very little available on the spot market. ‘Tied’ deals emerging in the domestic market place, reflecting.
Futures markets u Today’s price for products to be delivered in the future. u A mechanism of trading promises of future commodity deliveries among traders.
Seasonality and Its Effects on Crop Markets. Seasonality and Its Causes  Seasonality is the phenomenon that causes crop prices (including cash, futures,
Colorado Wheat & Rail Car Shortage Darrell L. Hanavan Executive Director Colorado Wheat (CWAC/CAWG/CWRF)
Wheat July 25, Wheat is not wheat Outlook Bold predictions 2012.
World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January.
The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment Bruce A. Babcock Center for Agricultural.
N.D. Wheat Commission Update Helping North Dakota wheat see the world.
Presented by: Mark Gold President Top Third Ag Marketing, LLC.
U.S. Wheat Associates Serving Wheat Producers North Dakota Wheat Commission County Representatives Meeting John Oades, Vice President U.S. Wheat Associates.
Producers Cooperative Oil Mill And Plains Oilseed Products Coop.
Global Wheat Outlook November 2009 Will Reid AWB.
Can agriculture survive cheap oil? BRIAN CLANCEY
Agricultural Economics Grain Market Outlook by Cory G. Walters University of Kentucky (859)
Outlook Presentation Updated Darrell Holaday Advanced Market Concepts/Country Futures Wamego KS AMC COUNTRY FUTURES.
APCA The State of Tennessee and U.S. Crop Agriculture as the New Farm Bill Approaches Daryll E. Ray University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis.
2007 Montana Agricultural Outlook George Haynes Vincent Smith David Buschena Department of Agricultural Economic & Economics and MSU Extension.
Agenda Current Weather Impacts US Supply and Demand Trends Canadian Supply and Demand Trends Big”4” Supply and Demand Trends Current and Historical Prices.
FUTURES: SPECULATION Types of speculators: –Short term Scalpers Day traders –Long term.
Soybean Outlook Cory Walters University of Kentucky Extension Section Crops Outlook AAEA, Pittsburgh July 24-26, 2011.
Dr. Thomas E. Elam President FarmEcon LLC February 10,
Wheat Market Outlook in
U.S. Oilseed Situation and Outlook Nick Piggott North Carolina State University Southern Regional Outlook Conference.
Econ 339X, Spring 2010 ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Futures markets u Today’s price for products to be delivered in the future. u A mechanism of trading promises of future commodity deliveries among traders.
Kurt M. Guidry Gilbert Durbin Professor LSU AgCenter Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness 2010 LSU AgCenter’s Outlook Conference Outlook.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness.
2015 HRS and Durum Crops Outlook
Capabilities and Trends in Thai Tapioca Production by Seree Denworalak President The Thai Tapioca Trade Association June 28,
Marketing Chapter #7. What is Marketing? u All the economic activities involved in preparing and positioning the product for the final consumer.
U.S. Grain and Oilseed Situation and Outlook Nick Piggott North Carolina State University South Carolina Ag Expo February 8th, 2001.
Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook 2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference September 25,2001 Kurt M. Guidry Associate Specialist.
Agricultural Commodity Outlook Gerald A. Bange Chairperson World Agricultural Outlook Board Office of the Chief Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Copyright © 2002 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota.
FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Turkey and Protein Sector Outlook Dr. Thomas.
January 2015 London ON © DePutter Marketing Seminar Part 2: Marketing your crops.
Agricultural Products: Steady and Unsteady Demand 2007 Agrifood Complex Outlook Conference September 19, 2007 David Stallings World Agricultural Outlook.
Bottlenecks and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier Summit Commodity Brokerage Service Stability Longevity Market Outlook & Risk Management Strategies Illinois Pork Producers Association.
Econ 338C, Spring 2009 ECON 338C: Topics in Grain Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Update of Market Fundamentals World & US Wheat Markets Note: slides 1 through 14 are exclusively USDA data (except 2016/17 projections); slides 15 and.
Market Outlook And Market Situation! Rodney Jones OSU NW Area Extension Economist.
Dr. Thomas E. Elam President FarmEcon LLC February 8, 2017
EU COP balance sheets 2014/2015 and forecasts 2015/16
Understanding Agricultural Futures
Will Developing Countries Replace U.S Agriculture?
Outlook for Feed Grain / Oilseed Markets
Crop Market News Kim Anderson
Crop Marketing Hancock County Grain Marketing Garner, Iowa
World Cotton Supply &Use Outlook Andrei Guitchounts, ICAC
2019 Corn-Ethanol Situation & Outlook
Marketing Strategies for Volatile Markets Frayne Olson, PhD Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist Director – Burdick Center for Cooperatives
Presentation transcript:

finis Milling &BakingNews MarketFAX MARKET UPDATE February 2005

2 PBI Market Summary Update February 10, 2005 Dear Valued Customer: In our December update we outlined some of the key events that had transpired through the end of The storage and transportation problems that were having a dramatic affect on the protein premiums (basis) are beginning to ease somewhat but, as illustrated in the charts (pages 8 & 9) are still at historically high values. This is due primarily to limited farmer selling, a lower futures board, low protein in the HRS crop, and quality problems in the HRW crop. The farmer has been reluctant to sell many bushels with the board continuing to move lower. Premiums have remained firm, and both Minneapolis and Kansas City have inverted. If this does not convince the farmer to sell, the next way to get more bushels sold is a futures rally. Record high premium levels have caused both markets to invert in an effort to induce more farmer selling.. Premiums in both the Kansas City and Minneapolis markets will be driven by quality, freight, export demand, and the willingness of the farmer to sell grain. 6 KEY FACTORS TO WATCH  HRW and HRS premiums (Pages 8, 9) continue to trade at near record highs for 04/05. This is due primarily to limited farmer selling, a lower futures board, low protein in the HRS crop, and quality problems in the HRW crop. Record high premium levels have caused both markets to invert in an effort to induce more farmer selling. New HRS demand has surfaced for later this year. In the most recent export report, 60,000 metric tons of HRS was reported sold to Egypt for opening Lakes time period. Deliverable stocks in Superior are relatively low at just over 11 million bushels, and if the Egypt sale is a sign of more business to come, we could see a significant rally in Minneapolis premiums and futures. The size of the commodity funds continues to grow. Over $118 billion invested in 2004, and we continue to see record net and gross shorts in both wheat and corn. Current gross short of 195,000 in corn, net 106,000, and gross short of 114,000 in wheat, net 56,000. The wheat market will be susceptible to short term spikes higher until the fund short is reduced.

3 Continued From Page 2 Winter wheat acreage (Pages 6 & 7) down 4% overall from last year with SRW acreage down 19%. Would expect SRW export and domestic demand to be reduced enough to avoid any serious problems, provided the growing conditions stay ideal. But Chicago futures could rally hard at the first sign of SRW production problems. The US continues to lose export business to aggressive world offers. In the most recent GASC tender, Argentina offered wheat at a $33/ton discount to US SRW, and EU offers should move down in February with the addition of export subsidies. Chinese wheat imports (Page 10) from the US for 05/06 could be much lower than originally expected. The Chinese government has imposed a 13% tax on wheat imports for 2005 and Chinese winter wheat acreage increased 4-5% this fall. In addition, China signed an agreement with the Canadian Wheat Board for 1 million metric tons of wheat in the 05/06 crop year. In summary, basis prices are beginning to trend downward as are the wheat futures, which in turn, is helping flour prices, these declines, primarily in the basis, are coming much slower than had been projected but should continue to do so nonetheless. The grain industry anticipates further declines going into the spring months barring any major weather problems. If this trend continues, it is our intent to average forward with the lower futures that would allow for some price relief from our current positions. The information we’ve provided is a reflection of where the grain markets are today and is not necessarily an indication of what the markets may or may not do going forward. Please feel free to contact Lauri Gritten our Vice President of Sales at or or your PBI customer service representative with any questions you may have. Sources: Horizon Flour Milling, LLC Milling & Baking News/MarketFAX Pizza Blends Inc.

4 Board vs. Basis

5 World Wheat Ending Stocks

6 US Planted Hard Red Winter Wheat Acres 1.5% reduction year on year

7 US Planted Soft Red Winter Wheat Acres 20% reduction year on year

8 DNS 14 Pro BS Mpls

9 HRW 12 Pro Basis KC cents/bu

10 Chinese Wheat Ending Stocks and Imports