A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS at Albany.

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Presentation transcript:

A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS at Albany NROW X November 5-6, 2008

Motivation CSTAR III examines sensible weather with warm season cutoff lows Storm-scale environment important to understand mesoscale substructure of convection with cutoffs New technology being utilized in short- fuse operations

Outline Brief Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview Radar Analysis 1.) GR2Analyst 2.) Four Dimensional Storm Cell Investigator (FSI) 3.) Traditional Radar Graphics

Background Numerous large hail reports with significant agricultural damage to orchards across upstate NY Short wave trough and cold front ahead of Cutoff focuses convection Cold pool anomalies (steep lapse rates) coupled with sufficient shear and instability allowed multicellular and isolated supercells to impact region

Moderate Risk: Albany Forecast Area 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook

16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 500 hPa Heights, Temps and Winds

16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 300 hPa Isotachs, Streamlines, Divergence and Winds

1200 UTC KALB Sounding SBCAPE = 644 J kg -1 DCAPE = 305 J kg km Shear = 49 kts WBZ HGT = 9.7 kft hPa LR = 5.6°C km -1

1800 UTC LAPS hPa Lapse rates hPa lapse rates were also around 7 °C km -1

0.5º GFS Lapse Rate Anomalies 16 June 2008/1800 UTC Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide

1800 UTC LAPS SBCAPE and MSLP Light blue shade to green shade J kg -1

0.5º GFS 16 June 2008/1800 UTC Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide

1800 UTC Albany Sounding -20 ºC height =20.2kft

1745 UTC Satellite and Lightning Significant clearing and destabilization occurred across eastern NY

NWS at Albany Forecast Area

GR2Analyst

FSI – Future of Radar Analysis (AWIPS) Improved vertical cross-sections (Dynamic) Constant Altitude Planned Position Indicator (CAPPI) for cross-sections with 8-bit data plotted at constant altitudes 3D Visualizations – 8-bit radar data from elevation scans, vertical cross-sections and CAPPI’s are plotted as 2D textures in a 3D space Virtual volume scans – No volume scan is incomplete

FSI PPICAPPI Vertical Cross- section 3D Flier

UTC 0.5° Base REF Loop Thanks to ITO Vasil Koleci for assistance with loop !!!

1855 UTC FSI 50 dBZ up to 27 kft

KBGM vs. KENX VIL VIL: kg m -2 VIL: kg m -2

1855 UTC Cross-Section -20°C WER

1855 UTC : Golf Ball Hail (1.75”) in Colonie and 2” hail in Guilderland !!!

1900 UTC 0.5° Base REF Height of 50 dBZ isosurface = 30 kft

1909 UTC: Hail reports kept coming in (CESTM too) !!! 50 dBZ to 30 kft

1946 UTC: FSI 65 dBZ to 24 kft ! Wow !

2133 UTC 0.5º Base REF

2133 UTC 0.5° Base REF X-section

2133 UTC Echo Tops

2133 UTC 50 dBZ Isosurface

2142 UTC “Hail Monster” 60 dBZ isosurface up to 30 kft !!! -20°C Golf Ball-size hail reported

2142 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived Product Gridded VILEcho Tops Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft) Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)

2146 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived Product Gridded VILEcho Tops Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft) Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)

2146 UTC: Three Body Scatterer/Hail Streak…

2146 UTC Base REF 4-panel 0.5° 3.1° 1.3° 2.4°

2146 UTC: FSI 50 dBZ well above -20°C

2142 UTC KENX SRM 0.5° 0.9° 1.3° 1.8° Tornado ???

2146 UTC KENX SRM 0.5° 0.9° 1.3° 1.8°

Results General Severe Weather Synoptic and Mesoscale Environments identified well New technology such as FSI aided forecasters with timely warnings Hail ground truth reports were plentiful 18 SVR’s issued with 15 verified; 1 TOR POD = 0.93 (40/43 events); FAR = 0.17; CSI = 0.78; Lead Time = 25.5 minutes