PX272 Global Warming Lecture 1 –Temperature rise –Carbon Dioxide rise –Geological context –Intro to radiation balance and the Greenhouse Effect.

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Presentation transcript:

PX272 Global Warming Lecture 1 –Temperature rise –Carbon Dioxide rise –Geological context –Intro to radiation balance and the Greenhouse Effect

The last 160 years thermometers IPCC AR4 Physical Science SPM

Keeling

Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures IPCC S/PM 2001

N Hemisphere temp past 1000 years IPCC S/PM 2001

Half million years: Vostok ice cores from Antarctica IPCC 2001 Ch 2.4

Some Key Sources of Info for this module Website –Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – fourth “AR4” report –Global Warming, J Horton, Rep Prog Phys June 2005 (review article) – copies circulated. –Notes –Assignments –Stern Review: Economics of Climate Change Global Warming, J Houghton, CUP 2004 –Based around TAR 2001 –AR mainly reduced uncertainty Weekly reading & Assignments –Assessed. First due ONLINE by Tues 1pm.

Global Energy Balance Te/KTm/KTsurf/K calcmeasmeas Venus Earth Mars [Jupiter ]

Simple Greenhouse analogy

Atmospheric profile DR Leadley

Infra-red emission spectrum (over sunny mediterranean)

Digest of the emission spectrum What matters, for each part of the spectrum, is the temperature at the height above which the atmosphere is transparent. Water (vapour) absorbtion bands: saturated as far as the vapour rises. Eq’m vapour pressure strongly controlled by T, so temperature of vapour emission somewhat buffered. !! Water clouds are much more delicate to assess …… CO2 bands: saturated to Stratosphere. Average T of emission only sensitive at edge of these bands, but these are quite broad. !!This does assume the stratosphere temperature is insensitive. Under query. Atmospheric windows: anything which does scatter IR here will have a strong effect per molecule. CH4, CFC’s act in this way.

Surface warming BUT stratospheric cooling