Lecture 11, POLS 3841 Global Justice and Global Warming Precautionary Risk Assessment Per capita emissions rights Carbon offsetting

Lecture 11, POLS Risk assessment & the precautionary principle w Given uncertainties, how do we decide whether and how to act? w A rough overview of the possibilities IPCC predictions are right or wrong Climate change doesn’t happen Or it could be worse We do or do not reduce GHG emissions Look at the worst-case scenarios and choose

Lecture 11, POLS Global Justice & Global Warming w Bali debate: 20-40% IC reductions by 2020? w 2°C threshold requires 70% reduction in GHG emissions now, or 90% (94% in US) by /3 ton/capita w Current GHG emissions U.S tons carbon per capita/year EU -- 2 tons China --.6 tons India tons Global average tons w Atmosphere as a global commons Who “owns” it?

Lecture 11, POLS …Global Justice & Global Warming w Atmosphere is not “large” enough for the South to follow the North’s development path India + China = 40% of world population So this commons must be brought under global governance South will only change its course if treated fairly w Common but differentiated responsibility w An analogy: Nora & Sam’s aquifer Sharing a common resource creates a moral community w Ecological debt & carbon debt w Adaptation fund

Lecture 11, POLS A per capita emissions rights approach w Pragmatic “Geo-ecological realism” requires fairness w Assuming 3.5°C climate sensitivity, limiting warming to 2°C requires limiting CO2 concentrations to 450 ppm Climate sensitivity: the big uncertainty Is 2°C acceptable? w Per capita emissions RIGHTS > emissions trading In effect, North would finance technological leapfrogging of South How: Rationing? A carbon tax? Redirecting subsidies? w Free trade? Trade rules must allow climate cooperators to isolate free riders. w Obstacles “Fortress World” and “Business-as-usual” mindsets

Lecture 11, POLS Proposals: N-S wealth & tech transfer w Greenhouse Development Rights: EcoEquity.org w Global Green Deal: Mark Hertsgaard See this week’s Time magazine w Lehman Brothers: Global Warming Superfund "It is some hardship to be born into the world and to find all nature's gifts previously engrossed.“ John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy

Lecture 11, POLS Carbon offset markets w Carbon neutrality & carbon calculators A burgeoning business: profit & nonprofit The price of carbon: $5-$40/ton w Operational problems Project additionality Baseline determination Leakage analysis Transparency in evaluating offset quality Inequity: “global carbon workers” (Uganda) w Conceptual problems Future accounting: emit today & pay tomorrow Picking the low-hanging fruit in DCs and sending the wrong message Looking green instead of changing behavior

Lecture 11, POLS Some questions to consider w Monbiot admits that he’s shown only that a 90% cut in GHG emissions is technically and economically feasible. What about political feasibility? w In order to work, Monbiot’s rationing system would require enormous social solidarity. How could that solidarity be generated? w Why on earth would people want to campaign for austerity and less freedom?