State of Utah Long Term Projections Model System T. Ross Reeve Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget November 26, 2002

Utah Long Term Projections  Long term demographic & economic projections program is housed at the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget  Projections Website:  Documentation:

Overview  UPED: Utah Process Economic & Demographic model has a 30 year legacy  Continuous Development  Consistent Economic & Demographic Projections  Employment Method is Both Top Down & Bottom Up: Relates Utah’s projected inter-industry structure to that of the nation; SR-LR, events, industries  Baseline, Impact, & Scenario Analysis Capabilities

Regional Economic / Demographic Projection Model GOPB Geographic Information System AGRC Water Supply/Demand Model DWR Transportation Planning Models MPOs, UDOT Air Quality Models DAQ Small Area Allocation Models MPOs, AOGs Planning Models

Quality Growth Efficiency Tools State Agencies Regional Planning Entities Local Government Public Utilities Integrates Economic & Demographic Projections Fiscal Impacts GIS/Land Use Air Quality Transportation Planning Water Supply/Demand Projections Coalition for Utah’s Future Utah Critical Land Conservation Committee Local Government Plans Regional Plans State Planning Agencies Federal Agency Plans Private Sector Plans “Process to improve the quality of information available to decision makers to plan for Utah’s future.”

Utah Planning Districts UPED Model Regions Southeast Southwest Central Wasatch Front Uintah Basin Bear River Mountainland

Utah Planning Districts UPED Model Regions  Bear River: Box Elder, Cache, Rich  Wasatch Front: Davis, Morgan, Salt Lake, Tooele, Weber  Mountainland: Summit, Utah, Wasatch  Central: Juab, Millard, Piute, Sanpete, Sevier, Wayne  Southwest: Beaver, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Washington  Uintah Basin: Daggett, Duchesne, Uintah  Southeast: Carbon, Emery, Grand, San Juan

Projection Process InternalExternal Development Production Distribution Data Series & Sources Primary Empirical Information Professional Literature & Association Market Research & User (Customer) Feedback

Model Estimation, Calibration & Projection Design Data Lag (Variable in Time) Projection Interval Estimation Interval Complete Data Availability Problem: Estimate Parameters Using Variables Partial Data Availability Problem: Estimate Some Parameters Using Variables Values; Calculate Some Variable Values Using Parameters No Data Availability Problem: Calculate Variable Values Using Parameters History2000Current YearFuture

UPED Model System Capabilities  Baseline Projection  Impact Projection  Self Calibration  Historical Parameter Estimates  Target or Goal Seeking  Confidence Intervals

Data Preparation Models Database Evaluation/ Interpretation / Presentation Data Sources Data Sets Model System Parameter & Exogenous Variable Estimation & Projection

Data Sources  Utah Population Estimates Committee  Bureau of Vital Records  Department of Workforce Services  Board of Higher Education  L.D.S. Church  Bureau of the Census  Bureau of Economic Analysis  Bureau of Labor Statistics StateFederal

UPED Model Parameters and Variables  Variables Produced  Demographic Parameters  Exogenous Basic Employment Variables  Economic Parameters

Variables Produced  Population  Temporarily Present Non-Residents  Temporarily Absent Residents  Births  Deaths  Natural Increase Population  Employment Related In and Out Migration  Non-employment Related In- Migration  Non-Employment Related Out-Migration  Households  Labor Force  Residentiary Employment  Total Employment Note: Most Dimensioned by Age and Sex

UPED Model Major Demographic Parameters  Birth Rates (age of mother)  Survival Rates (age, sex)  Non-employment Related Out-Migration Rates (age, sex)  Non-employment Related In-Migration Growth Rates (age, sex)  Migration Propensities (age, sex)  Household Headship Rates (age, sex of householder)

UPED Exogenous Variables Dimensioned by Industry and Year  Temporary Basic Employment  Event Basic Employment  Other Permanent Basic Employment

UPED Model Major Economic Parameters  Labor Force Participation Rates (age, sex)  Residentiary Demand Relatives (industry)  Relative Demand Parameters (age, industry)  Multiple Job Holding Rate  Net Out-Commutation Rate  Equilibrium Unemployment Rate

Model System Models Utah Process Economic and Demographic Model (UPED) Utah County Allocation of Population & Employment Model (UCAPE) County Age and Sex Allocation Model (CASA)

UPED Model General Flowchart Population in Year t-1 Age & Survive; Births & Non- Employment Related In-Migration Adjusted Natural Increase Population Non-Employment Related Out-Migration & Employment Related Net In-Migration in Year t Population in Year t Labor Market Population Dependent Job Opportunities in Year t Labor Force in Year t Total Job Opportunities in Year t Basic Job Opportunities in Year t Recursive Iterative Direct Model Components Inputs & Outputs

UPED Labor Market: Supply & Demand for Jobs Where: PisPopulation (persons) BisBasic Employment (jobs) SisTotal Employment (supply of jobs) LisLabor Force (persons) UisUnemployed Labor Force (persons) DisDemand for Jobs (jobs) XDisExcess Demand for Jobs (jobs) u*isEquilibrium Unemployment Rate lisLabor Force Participation Rate disMultiple Job Holding Rate cisNet Out-Commutation Rate risResidentiary demand relative

UPED Employment Production for Regional Consumption Direct & Indirect Production for Export Direct & Indirect Residentiary Employment (REDi) Total Employment (TEDi) Basic Employment (BEDi) Permanent Basic Employment (BEDPi) Temporary Basic Employment (BEDTi) Change in Permanent Basic For Event or Impact (BEDPACi or BEDCACi) Growth Rate of Permanent Basic For Baseline (BEDPGi or BEDPGRi) = If Baseline

Determinants of the Demand for Residentiary Employment Permanent Basic Employment in the Region Temporary Basic Employment in the Region In-Region Consumer Demand for Goods & Services Local Market for Consumer Goods & Services Consumer Goods & Services Produced Outside the Region Locally Produced Consumer Goods & Services Competition $$ Residentiary Employment to Produce Locally Demanded Consumer Goods & Services Relates the region’s projected changes in productivity and consumption to that of the nation. Captures unique regional industrial structure, consumption patterns, and age structure.

UCAPE Model General Flowchart Historical county population & employment by industry Allocate industry employment to counties using Bayesian Maximum Likelihood Procedure UPED MCD projections of population & employment Selection of industry employment locational hypothesis Allocate industry employment to counties using selected hypothesis Allocate population to counties

CASA Model General Flowchart UPED regional variables & parameters UCAPE total population by county Previous year’s county population by age & sex Allocation of MCD temporarily absent residents & present non-residents Allocation of MCD births & deaths Allocation of MCD employment related net in-migration Allocation of MCD non-employment related in & out migration County population projection by age & sex Allocation of MCD households to county level

Labor Force Participation Rates

Households (by Age and Sex of Household Head)

Visualization: Geographic Distribution of Utah’s Population Across Time