Lecture 2: Prez Elections overview Homework assignment Last week’s debate Last time Presidential campaigns and elections –outline of this section of the course –historical overview of election events/practices and candidate selection events/practices

1 st Essay assignment Write no more than 3 double-spaced pages (exclusive of title/abstract page and references page) on the following: –Are major-party nominees for president different systematically today from the nominees typically produced before the 1930s? Why or why not? Include a one-paragraph (short!) abstract on a separate title page, summarizing your answer 3-paragraph introduction: hook, thesis, roadmap Due in class Oct. 13

Last week’s debate Who “won”? –Why? Will it make any difference? –Why or why not?

Last time Overview of course –Campaigns and elections: do campaigns matter? Do voters make “good” choices? If so, why? If not, why not? Are candidates systematically different in the modern era from those of the pre-WWII period? –Policy: Under what conditions and how does the president affect legislation? Ditto on policy implementation?? Traditional vs. Modern presidency

The traditional presidency Presidents were dispensers of federal patronage, but often under tightly managed conditions Congress was very hesitant to give presidents extensive military resources Also limited domestic policy tools Communications technologies limited the ability of presidents to end-run decentralized party organizations to build personal reputations with the public

Transition to modern prez communications –rise of radio in 1920s – new phenomenon of national media/entertainment/political personalities with personal reputations; TV in 1950s massive economic dislocations of Great Depression fueled a new acceptance and dependence on the national government –Democrats changed their spots; became the party of national governmental power WWII and Cold War –new and sustained support for military resources for the prez  expanded ability for prez to initiate action in foreign change in nominations procedures after 1968

Campaigns and elections questions What is the empirical structure of prez campaigns and elections? –Campaign finance law. –Who gives? –Who participates (and how)? Do campaigns matter? What are presidential election outcomes measuring? –Theories of voting behavior –retrospective voting, sociotropic voting, etc. –Theories of learning –Theories of marketing and the media

Historical overview: elections Constitution reserves selection procedures for electors to the state governments majority rule in Electoral College, backed up by unit-rule majority election in House Electoral College is population-weighted, but with a small bias in favor of small states (one vote for each member in H or S) –prez elections thus are not “national” elections, but rather, 50 simultaneous state elections (+DC) –Electoral College: = 538. Need 270 to win –CA: 55; TX 34; NY 31; FL 27; IL and PA 21; OH 20; MI 17; GA, NC and NJ 15 each, would form a winning coalition

Elections, cont. Elections of 1796, 1800 forced constitutional revision of selection rules 1824 – accelerated popularization of selection mechanisms for electors; last prez selected in House 1876 – disputed elector slates; brokered deal to end Reconstruction 1940 – FDR elected a 4th time; led to term limits for prez 2000 – Supreme Court settles Florida vote- counting dispute, determining EC outcome

Historical overview: candidates congressional party caucuses breakdown of caucus system: the instability of one-party rule in a federal system nominating conventions –who chooses the choosers? –what rules for voting? primaries stall primaries triumphant public funding and beyond