Incorporating Potential Climate Impacts into PNW Energy Planning Presented to: Northwest Power Planning Council Presented by: Stephen Buffington SMA 550, Winter 2002

NWPPC Mandate Through the Northwest Power Act of 1980, these states formed a compact and established the Northwest Power Planning Council to help plan for the future of the power system, and inform and involve citizens of the region in the planning process. Congress and the four Northwest states identified and embraced a set of long-term goals in the Power Act: To achieve cost-effective conservation; To encourage the development of renewable energy resources; To establish a representative regional power planning process; and To assure the region of an adequate, efficient, economical and reliable power supply. >>> 20-year Electric Power Plan <<<

Current NWPPC Approach Dealing with uncertainty in key areas  Fish / Hydro trade-offs  Fuel price volatility  Demand volatility  Regulatory uncertainty Dealing with climate change impacts  Potential impacts to Hydro capacity  Avoidance of GHG emissions  Incorporating potential regulatory changes

Proposal to Include Climate Impacts Holistic Approach  Increase study of potential impacts to supply  Develop study of potential impacts on demand  Compare potential impacts of supply/demand on transmission and distribution By incorporating these potential impacts into the Fifth Northwest Power Plan the region has a much better chance of achieving an accurate reflection of the future trends and challenges faced by the electricity market.

Climate Change and Variability in the PNW Variability  Cold phase of PDO / ENSO > Cool, wet winters  Warm phase of PDO / ENSO > Mild, dry winters  PDO more important for 20-year Power Plans due to time scale (20-30years per phase) Climate Change (Modeled)  Increase in annual temperature (~2.0deg C by 2020)  Increase in winter precipitation  Inconclusive change for summer precipitation

Climate Impacts on Electricity Supply Not affected  Coal  Natural Gas  Nuclear  Fuel Oil Potentially Affected  Hydropower  Wind  Biomass  Solar

Potential Climate Impacts on Renewable Supply Hydropower  Change in timing, amount, and form of precipitation  Resulting change in streamflow Wind  Change in intensity (small and large spatial scale) Solar  Change in cloudiness and transmittance  Change in seasonality of cloudiness Biomass  Change in species composition  Changes in biomass amount

Potential Climate Impacts on Demand Residential / Commercial  Heating  Cooling Agriculture  Irrigation Pumping

Transmission Planning When non-affected supplies and demand are planned use normal models When supply or demand is potentially affected adjust models to capture +/- needed in capacity

Conclusion  Climate variability and gradual warming are going to impact future supply and demand of electricity in the PNW  Current 20-year Power Plans do not adequately address these impacts  Adding climate impacts will greatly improve the results of the models which rely heavily on historic and recent trends

References All 20-year Power Plan and background material was found at NWPPC website  All climate variability and change information from  “Rhythms of Change”, Climate Impacts Group. Snover & Miles. IP All maps on resources and physical conditions of the PNW from  “Atlas of the Pacific Northwest” 8 th Ed. Jackson & Kimerling OSU Press(at UW Bookstore)