N EW TRENDS IN G EOINFORMATICS IN A CHANGING WORLD Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research, Brazil

We need cooperation at a global level… By ,5 billion people: 6 billion tons of GHG and 60 million tons of urban pollutants. Resource-hungry: We will withdraw 30% of available fresh water. Risky living: 80% urban areas, 25% near earthquake faults, 2% in coast lines less than 1 m above sea level. source: Guy Brasseur

Global Change Where are changes taking place? How much change is happening? Who is being impacted by the change? Global Change: How is the Earth’s environment changing, and what are the consequences for human civilization?

source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)

From land cover to land use Soybeans Pasture Abandoned Land

Land change is crucial for the world

Changes in dietary patterns: Meat consumption FAOSTAT 2007

Productivity and prices: the challenge source: The Economist

The food challenge source: Nature

The food challenge: technology gaps source: The Economist

Forests and food production: potential conflicts

Slides from LANDSAT images: USGS Modelling Human-Environment Interactions How do we decide on the use of natural resources? What are the conditions favoring success in resource mgnt? Can we anticipate changes resulting from human decisions? What techniques and tools are needed to model human- environment decision making?

Geoinformatics enables crucial links between nature and society Nature: Physical equations Describe processes Society: Decisions on how to Use Earth´s resources

Why GI Engineering? Chemistry Chemical Eng. Physics Electrical Eng. Computer Computer Eng. Science GI Science GI Engineering GI Engineering= “The discipline of systematic construction of GIS and associated technology, drawing on scientific principles”

Scientists and Engineers Photo 51(Franklin, 1952) Scientists build in order to study Engineers study in order to build

What set of concepts drove GIS -20? Map-based (cartography) User-centered (user interfaces) Toblerian spaces (regionalized data analysis) Object-based modelling and spatial reasoning

GIS-20: Object-oriented modelling Egenhofer, M. and A. Frank (1992). "Object-Oriented Modeling for GIS." URISA Journal 4(2): SPRING´s object-oriented data model (1995) ARCGIS´s object-centred data model (2002) Geo-object Cadastral Coverage Spatial database Categorical Geo-field Numerical Is-a contains

GIS-20: Topological Spatial Reasoning Egenhofer, M. and R. Franzosa (1991). "Point-Set Topological Spatial Relations." IJGIS 5(2): OGC´s 9-intersection dimension-extended Open source implementations (GEOS)

GIS-20: User interfaces Jackson, J. (1990) Visualization of metaphors for interaction with GIS. M.S. thesis, University of Maine. Geographer´s desktop (1992) ArcView (1995)

GIS -20: Region-based spatial analysis SPRING´s Geostatistics Module GeoDA: Spatial data analysis

TerraAmazon – open source software for large-scale land change monitoring Spatial database (PostgreSQL with vectors and images) : 5 million polygons, 500 GB images

shared analysis sensor networks mobile devices GIS-21 ubiquitous images Data-centered, mobile-enabled, contribution- based, field-based modelling

Data is coming... are we ready? Sentinel-2A 2012 Amazônia Landsat-8 CBERS-3 ResourceSat-2 ResourceSat-3 Sentinel-2B CBERS-4

Data Access Hitting a Wall Current science practice based on data download How do you download a petabyte?

Data Access Hitting a Wall Current science practice based on data download How do you download a petabyte? You don’t! Move the software to the archive

26 Virtual Observatory If data is online, internet is the world ’ s best telescope Scientific Data Management in the Coming Decade (Jim Gray)

Tracking Positions collected over a fixed period of time Monitoring Data from remote stations, fixed or mobile Sensor Webs source: ARGOS

Earth observation satellites and geosensor webs provide key information about global change… …but that information needs to be modelled and extracted

What´s in an Image? “Remote sensing images provide data for describing landscape dynamics” (Câmara, Egenhofer et al., COSIT 2001).

GIS-21: Spatio-temporal semantics Different types of ST-objects (source: JP Cheylan)

GIS-21: Discovering the history of land change objects Reconstructing the history of a landscape

32 Land Use Change by Sugarcane expansion source: INPE

Sugarcane expansion source: Rudorff et al, Remote Sensing Journal (2010)

f ( I t+n ). FF f (I t )f (I t+1 )f (I t+2 ) GIS-21: Spatio-temporal modelling “A dynamical spatial model is a computational representation of a real-world process where a location on the earth’s surface changes in response to variations on external and internal dynamics on the landscape” (Peter Burrough) Dynamic Spatial Models need good conceptual models

Spatially-explicit LUCC models  Explain past changes, through the identification of determining factors of land use change;  Envision which changes will happen, and their intensity, location and time;  Assess how choices in public policy can influence change, by building different scenarios considering different policy options.

Resilience Concepts for spatial dynamical models Events and processes

degradation Concepts for spatial dynamical models vulnerability

Human-environmental models need to describe complex concepts (and store their attributes in a database) and much more… biodiversity Concepts for spatial dynamical models sustainability

Clocks, clouds or ants? Clocks: deterministic equations Clouds: statistical distributions Ants: emerging behaviour

Models: From Global to Local Athmosphere, ocean, chemistry climate model (200 x 200 km) Atmosphere only global climate model (50 x 50 km) Regional climate model (10 x 10 km) Hydrology, Vegetation Soil Topography (1 x 1 km) Regional land use change Socio-economic adaptation (e.g., 100 x 100 m)

25 x 25 km 2 1 x 1 km 2 Human-enviroment models should be multi- scale, multi-approach [Moreira et al., 2008]

Multi-scale modelling using explicit relationships Express explicit spatial relationships between individual objects in different scales [Moreira et al., 2008] [Carneiro et al., 2008]

How can we express behavioural changes in human societies? Small Farmers Medium-Sized Farmers photos: Isabel Escada When a small farmer becomes a medium-sized one, his behaviour changes

Old Settlements (more than 20 years) Recent Settlements (less than 4 years) Farms Settlements 10 to 20 anos Societal systems undergo phase transitions Isabel Escada, 2003 [Escada, 2003]

Networks as enablers of human actions Bus traffic volume in São PauloInnovation network in Silicon Valley

Consolidated area GIS-21: Network-based analysis Emergent area Modelling beef chains in Amazonia

TerraME: Computational environment for developing human-environment models Cell Spaces Support for cellular automata and agents [Carneiro, 2006]

TerraLib: spatio-temporal database as a basis for innovation Visualization (TerraView) Spatio-temporal Database (TerraLib) Modelling (TerraME) Data Mining(GeoDMA) Statistics (aRT)

RgeoR R data from geoR package. Loaded into a TerraLib database, and visualized with TerraView. R-Terralib interface

Managing change is a major challenge for the scientific community Images are a major source of new data Move the software, not the data We need new algebras, data representations and algorithms to handle spatio-temporal data Conclusions