The chemical composition of the middle atmosphere - a nowcasting product based on irradiance observations of the experiments LYRA/PROBA2 and PREMOS/PICARD Werner Schmutz 1), Tanja Egorova 1), Eugene Rozanov 1), Alexander Shapiro 1), Anna Shapiro 1), Manfred Vogel 2) 1) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland 2) Institut für 4D–Technologien, Hochschule für Technik FHNW, Windisch, Switzerland SOTERIA meeting, Saariselkä

Overview The PMOD/WRC space projects –LYRA/PROBA2 –PREMOS/PICARD The nowcasting project Current additions to SOCOL i

LYRA 3 units 12 detectors 24 LEDs … x 92.5 x mm ~A4 size 5.0 kg 1 unit = 4 wavelength channels

LYRA (FM March 2006) BESSY synchrotron calibration at PTB

LYRA integration on PROBA Launch 15. July 2009

PICARD PREMOS – SOVAP – SODISM Total Solar Irradiance Filter Radiometers

Filter Radiometers LYRA/PROBA2 (launch July 2009 ?!) PREMOS-PFR/PICARD (launch 2009 or early 2010) 210 LYRA: 30 (Zr), 70 (Al), 125, 210 nm 215 PREMOS: 215, 266, 535, 607, 782 nm

UV influence on the terrestrial atmosphere Ozone mixing ratio changes (%) due to a 10% increase of the spectral solar flux in 1 wavelength bin (1 nm). Ozone Herzberg band 210 nm Ozone band 270 nm Ly  30 km: level of max. ozone change

LYRA Instrument on PROBA2 (built by ROB & PMOD/WRC) Chemistry ionosphere climate model (CICM) extension of CCM SOCOL (Egorova et al., 2005) On-line LYRA data for space-weather community LYRA/PROBA2

Project idea Nowcast of neutral and ion composition in the mesosphere based on solar irradiance measurements Hourly/Daily Data from observations by PREMOS, LYRA, SORCE Radiation spectrum reconstruction nm (Egorova et al., 2008,ACP) Nowcast of anomalies of neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOL i Nowcast results available on web every 6 hours Output validation to improve the model and experimental set-up  Evaluate the response of the middle atmosphere to the solar UV irradiance variability

Aim of Nowcast Find out how well we understand the solar influence on the middle atmosphere; Learn how to provide near-real-time operation; Space Weather Service is secondary goal but may become interesting if successful !

LYRA measurements: 6-hourly solar irradiance at nm (Lyman-  ) nm (Herzberg cont.) Spectral irradiance for other wavelengths Measurements for previous month Statistical tools Input of spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours Data flow

Status PMOD/WRC project Model SOCOL i is developed  Getting ready for „operational service“ after PROBA 2 launch  Develop data flow; automatic modelling, and tool to browse the result  via link available through European Space Weather Portal web page Publications: –Egorova T. et al. 2004, GRL 31, L06119: Chemical and dynamical response to the 11-year variability of the solar irradiance simulated with a chemistry-climate Model –Egorova T. et al. 2005, COSPAR, Adv. Space Res. 35, : Influence of solar 11-year variability on chemical composition of the stratosphere and mesosphere simulated with a chemistry-climate model –Rozanov E., Egorova T., Schmutz W., Peter T., 2006, J. Atm. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 68, 2203–2213, Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle –Egorova et al. 2008, ACP 8, , Nowcast and short-term forecast in the middle atmosphere based on the observed UV irradiance.

SOCOL : modeling tool to study SOlar-Climate-Ozone Links General Circulation component (GCM): MA-ECHAM4 (Manzini & McFarlane,1998) Chemistry/transport component (CTM) : MEZON (Egorova et al., 2003) GCM CTM Winds and temperature H 2 O (troposphere) Ozone H 2 O(stratosphere) Main properties: ~4ºx4º (T30); L39; ~80km Included all relevant physical, dynamical and chemical processes Simulates wind, temperature, 43 neutral and 48 charged species CICM SOCOL

Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours Initial fields for 10 ensemble members 10-member model ensemble run for the next 6 hours Model output for the next 6 hours Initialization fields for the next period Experimental setup

Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement and their statistical properties O +, O 2 +, O 4 +, N +, NO +, N 2 +, H 2 O 2 +, H 3 O +,O 2 + ∙N 2, O 2 + ∙H 2 O, H 3 O + ∙OH, NO + ∙H 2 O, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 3, NO + ∙CO 2, NO + ∙N 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙CO 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙N 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 3, H + ∙(H 2 O) 4, H + ∙(H 2 O) 5, H + ∙(H 2 O) 6, H + ∙(H 2 O) 7, H 3 O + ∙CO 2, H 3 O + ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2 e¯,O¯, O 2 ¯, O 3 ¯, O 4 ¯, OH¯, CO 3 ¯, CO 4 ¯, NO 2 ¯, NO 3 ¯, HCO 3 ¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH 3 ¯,O 2 ¯∙H 2 O, NO 3 ¯∙H 2 O, CO 3 ¯∙H 2 O O 3, O *, O, O 2 *, NO, HO 2, ClO, NO 2, OH, NO 3, N 2 O 5, HNO 3,HONO 3, ClONO 2, Cl, N, N *, H 2 O 2, H, HOCl, Cl 2, Cl 2 O 2, HCl,Br, CH 2 O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO 3, BrCl, CH 3, CH 3 O 2, CH 3 O, HCO, CH 3 O 2 H, H 2 O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N 2 O, CH 4, CO, H 2, CBrF 3 Output data 4D Location, height, and time

Positive ions Negative ions and electrons Neutrals Graphs: Exp1-Exp2 1)Solar maximum with GCR at min + NO ionization 2)Solar minimum control with GCR at max + NO ionization Model sensitivity to the changes of the solar spectral irradiance from minimum to maximum of the solar activity

SUSIM data SOCOLcalculations Microwave Radiometer SOMORA : Data provided by Bern University N.Kämpfer group Red: Ly-alpha Blue: Herzberg (scaled) Comparison 3D simulation and observations: signal of 27-day solar cycle in ozone

Latest update: SEP effects Time-altitude distribution differences at N relative to SEP effects turned off

Summary SWAP (0.1 Hz) + LYRA (60 Hz) on PROBA2 provide the EUV equivalent in Europe of the NOAA SXI + GOES X-ray monitor SODISM + PREMOS on PICARD will continue in the near UV and visual 2009/