Schedule 3:30-5:00 Breakout Sessions –What are the critical issues and questions? Identify major topics and begin to solicit input 5:30-6:30 Reception 8:30-8:45 Plenary session to review progress and goals –What information is needed from other groups? 8:45-10:15 Small group discussion wrap-up 10:15-10:30 Break 10:30-12:00 Summary of breakout sessions –Each group will provide a few slides and summarize major issues & recommendations 12:00-1:00 Lunch 1:00-3:00 Plenary discussion of AOR issues –Strategy for implementation of recommendations –Recommendations on composition/organization of committee (subcommittees on fast-track & longer-term R&D?) –The next steps: timeline 3:00 Adjourn

Breakout Session Details Session 1: Analysis Requirements (Rm 3C404) –Facilitators: David Ruth & John Snook –Charge: Identify and prioritize the requirements for AORs Session 2: Observational Resources and Verification (Room 3B809) –Facilitators: Jennifer Mahoney & Eugene Petrescu –Charge: Identify and prioritize the observational resources required to generate AORs –Identify methods to assess the quality (verification) of the AORs Session 3: Analysis Strategies (Room GB124) –Facilitators: Fred Carr & Steven Lazarus –Identify and evaluate the current capabilities to develop AORs –Recommend ways that current deficiencies may be overcome

Breakout Session Suggestions Many potential issues to discuss in each session Avoid tangential discussions and presentations Consider issues broadly: –What can be done now? –What do we need to know/improve for the future? –Real-time vs. restrospective issues –Local vs. national needs Feel free to move between sessions –Brief break 4:10-4:15 –Facilitators recap at 4:15 If need subject matter expert, ask Brad or John to track one down

Meeting Outcomes? Formation of AOR Committee under NWS/USWRP auspices Fast-track AOR options R&D for the long term

Realistic Timeline? July 20: All presentations and preliminary recommendations available online. Deadline for submission of names of volunteers and draftees for AOR committee membership August 1: Recommendations for committee members and executive summary of preliminary recommendations made to USWRP/Jack Hayes NWS ~Sept. 15: Committee meeting –Assess and make recommendations regarding realistic options for fast track AORs –Outline program plan for longer term R&D efforts October 15: Draft paper/recommendations submitted for comment to community January 1: Final version of paper/ recommendations submitted for publication and to USWRP January 1: Preliminary examples of fast track AORs available ~March 15: Committee meeting –Assess progress on fast-track options –Finalize program plan for AOR R&D April 15: Rudimentary fast track AORs products available

Breakout Session 1: Analysis Requirements Charge: –Identify and prioritize the requirements for AORs Specific issues: –Can one analysis of record meet all needs? Local analyses vs. national products Real-time vs. retrospective analyses –What spatial and temporal resolution? –Averages vs. extremes in time/space? –Parameters (temperature, precipitation, etc.) – which are absolutely essential now? –What are the fundamental characteristics that should be met in the future?

Breakout Session 2: Observational Resources and Verification Charge: –Identify and prioritize the observational resources required to generate AORs –Identify methods to assess the quality (verification) of the AORs Specific issues: –What observational data sets are most critical? –What limitations are imposed by the existing and future observational data assets vs. those available in the past? –What is required to estimate quantitatively the observational errors in the various data streams? –What efforts are required to collect surface data including mesonets? –How can COOP and other climate data be used effectively? –What is required to use radar and satellite data effectively? –How can the quality of analyses be assessed? –What are appropriate measures of analysis skill? –Can specific analytic experiments and case studies be defined to test analysis solutions?

Breakout Session 3: Analysis Strategies Charge: –Identify and evaluate the current capabilities to develop AORs –Recommend ways that current deficiencies may be overcome Specific issues: –What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing methodologies? –What limitations are imposed by an underlying model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.? –What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective analyses now? –Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation)? –What are the critical scientific issues that must be resolved in order to successfully develop quality analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution?

The First Step: Translating Needs to Requirements Many applications require the current and past states of the atmosphere near the surface at high spatial and temporal resolution. What does an analysis of record represent? Can one analysis of record meet all needs? –Local analyses vs. national products –Real-time vs. retrospective analyses –Resolution issues What spatial and temporal resolution? Averages vs. extremes in time/space? –Parameter issues (temperature, precipitation, etc.)

The Second Step: Science, Technology, and Resource Inventory To what extent can these requirements be met given existing scientific understanding, technologies, and resources? –What can be learned from the literature and current applications? –What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing methodologies? –What observational data sets are most critical? –What limitations are imposed by the existing and future observational data assets vs. those available in the past? –What limitations are imposed by an underlying model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.? –What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective analyses within the next year or two? –Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation) –How can the quality of analyses be assessed? What are appropriate measures of skill?

The Third Step: Recommendations and Outcomes What are the critical scientific issues that must be faced in order to successfully develop quality analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution? What additional R&D and resources are needed? Possible outcomes of this meeting? –USWRP report based on recommendations from workshop and additional feedback from operational, research, and user communities –Permanent NOAA/USWRP committee formed to continue advocacy for analysis of record –Propose fast-track implementation plan to provide AOR soon –Develop long-term clearly-defined project plan with compelling arguments –Propose funding opportunities and resources be sought to facilitate research projects from NWS, NSF, and other agencies –Advocate long-term funding from NOAA/NWS and other agencies for implementation of AOR beginning FY 07

USWRP Analysis of Record Summit Day 1: Tuesday, 29 June 8:00-8:15 AM Welcome (Bob Gall USWRP) Session 1: Overview 8:15-8:40 Analysis of Record Issues: Operational Perspective, Brad Colman, Seattle WFO. 8:40-9:05 Analysis of Record Issues: Research Perspective, John Horel, University of Utah. 9:05-9:25 Summary of Recommendations from USWRP Observing and Regional Weather Prediction Workshops. Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma 9:25-9:35 Summary of Recommendations from USWRP Cool Season QPF Workshop. Marty Ralph, NOAA ETL 9:35-10:00 Break Session 2: Current Capabilities 10:00-10:15 MSAS/RSAS Patty Miller. FSLMSAS/RSAS 10:15-10:30 The NCAR/ATEC Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation and Forecast (RTFDDA) System: Basics, operation and future development Yubao Liu. NCAR/RAPThe NCAR/ATEC Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation and Forecast (RTFDDA) System: Basics, operation and future development Session 3: Data Specific Applications 10:30-10:45 Real-time Doppler wind quality control and analysis. Qin Xu NOAA/NSSLReal-time Doppler wind quality control and analysis. 10:45-11:00 Challenges and Prospects for the Analysis of Precipitation Steve Vasiloff. NOAA/NSSLChallenges and Prospects for the Analysis of Precipitation 11:00-11:15 Real-Time Hurricane Wind Field Analysis Mark Powell. Hurricane Research DivisionReal-Time Hurricane Wind Field Analysis 11:15-11:25 Dave Sharp. Melbourne Fl WFO 11:25-11:35 Robert Aune. NOAA/NESDIS 11:35-12:45 Lunch Session 4: Kalman Filter Applications 12:45-1:00 Assimilation of Fixed Screen-Height Observations in a Parameterized PBL. Joshua Hacker NCARAssimilation of Fixed Screen-Height Observations in a Parameterized PBL. 1:00-1:15 Ensemble Filters for Data Assimilation: Flexible, Powerful, and Ready for Prime-Time? Jeff Anderson. NCAREnsemble Filters for Data Assimilation: Flexible, Powerful, and Ready for Prime-Time? 1:15-1:30 Toward a Real-time Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Greg Hakim. U. WashingtonToward a Real-time Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Session 5: Future Strategies 1:30-2:00 Analysis of Record Strawman Proposal Geoff DiMego, NCEP.Analysis of Record Strawman Proposal 2:00-2:30 An FSL-RUC/RR proposal for the Analysis of Record Stan Benjamin. FSLAn FSL-RUC/RR proposal for the Analysis of Record 2:30-3:00 A New Approach for Mesoscale Surface Analysis: The Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis System. John McGinley. FSLA New Approach for Mesoscale Surface Analysis: The Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis System. 3:00-3:15 Break