Robin Edwards H ampshire County Council Population and Household Forecasts for Output Areas Methods and Uses

Contents Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS) Use of LAMS data in Population Forecasting Model Outline of Complete Small Area Population Forecasting Model (SAPF) Outputs from Model and Uses

Main Features of Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS) Planning decision and planning monitoring system All planning consents granted in the county All sites allocated in local and structure plans Record created for each site and mapped on to GIS Development progress – starts, completions Estimated phasing of outstanding development

Sites with Full Planning Permission Dwellings by –Number –Type –Tenure –Number of bedrooms –Completion year(s), actual or estimated

Remaining Sites Sites with Outline Planning Permission –Dwellings by number (estimated), type, tenure and estimated completion year Allocated Sites –Dwellings by number and completion year (both estimated)

LAMS Information into SAPF Model For each record Output area code via link with GIS Number of completions by type, tenure, number of bedrooms and year Number of losses by year Estimated phasing of outstanding development on large sites by year (with details where known)

Output from LAMS; Input to SAPF YearOATT11-73TT11TT21TT31TT41TT51TT61TT71TT UNGA UNGA UNGA

Estimating Future Completions on Small Sites Sites not phased so estimates based on: Past completion trends Past geographical distribution

Conversion of Dwelling Supply to Population Dwellings Type/Tenure Occupancy Rates Source: HCC Home Movers Survey 2002 Tenure 11 Bed2 Bed3 Bed Persons per dwelling Male Male Male Male Male

Basic Model Structure Demolitions Module Natural Change Module Out Migration Module Dwelling Stock Gains Module Other In Migration Module

Geographical Levels Recognised by Model Output Areas Wards Districts National (County)

Age Ranges Recognised by Model Single year of age and gender Quinary age groups by gender Aggregated age groups by gender

Demolitions Module Inputs DataGeographyAge DistributionsSource Private Household Population (PHPOP) OASingle year of age2001 Census Dwelling Stock (DWS) OAN/A2001 Census Dwelling Losses (DL)OAN/ALAMS

Natural Change Module Inputs DataGeographyAge DistributionSource Private Household Population OASingle year of ageDemolitions Module Fertility Rates (FR)NationalSingle year of ageGAD Mortality Rates (MR) NationalSingle year of ageGAD Actual BirthsWardAll ages of motherVital Statistics Actual DeathsWard0-64, then quinary age groups Vital Statistics

Out Migration Module Inputs DataGeographyAge DistributionSource Private Household Population OASingle year of ageNatural Change Module Out Migration Propensities Ward5 year age groups2001 Census

Inputs to In Migration to Existing Dwelling Stock Module DataGeographySource DwellingsWardDemolitions module Vac Rate & Second HomesWard2001 Census Private Hhold PopnWardOut Migration module Hhold Representative RatesWard2001 Census/DCLG In Migration PropensitiesWard2001 Census England & Wales popNationalGAD

Constrained Final Population Forecast Basic assumption: in each district, rate of decline in average hhold size equals the average annual rate of decline between the two most recent censuses

Inputs Required to Calculate Constraints for Final Population DataAge DistnGeographySource Private Hhold Pop DistrictAll agesIn Migration Module HholdsDistrictAll agesIn Migration Module Av Hhold Size DistrictN/A1991/2001 Censuses HHold Rep Rates WardQuinary age groups In Migration Module

Model Outputs Population by: 100 age groups 2 genders 5,400 Output Areas 7 Forecast Years from Base Year Hholds by age and gender of Hhold Rep Total Dwelling Stock

Components of Forecast Population Change Births Deaths Out Migration due to Dwelling Stock Loss Out Migration from Existing Dwelling Stock In Migration to New Dwellings In Migration to Existing Dwelling Stock

Derived Outputs Parish Ward District School Catchment Areas Other Departmental Service Areas Urban Areas PCTs Ad Hoc Areas via GIS Economic Activity Any Age Range Population by