Modeling Ecological Performance Indicators for the Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River Water Levels Study

April 9, 2002 Project Objectives – Phase 1  Form a modeling team to build an ecological response model for analysis of potential flow regulation plans in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system  Develop Conceptual Framework for the LOSL Ecosystem Model  Develop and vet a simple prototype LOSL Ecosystem Model  Prepare a Plan for LOSL Ecosystem Model development and application

April 9, 2002 Tasks for Phase 1 1.Form LOSL ecosystem modeling team  LTI, IWR, ETWG chair, selected experts 2.Modeling team will develop a draft conceptual model  Conceptual Model will include:  Select Performance Indicators to include in model framework;  Define Measure/s of each Performance Indicator (e.g., population dynamics and growth of smallmouth bass);  Determine stressors and processes affecting each Measure of each Performance Indicator;  Develop kinetic structure of conceptual model (i.e., box- and-arrow diagram).  This task will utilize:  Literature review  Site-specific research  Expertise of modeling team

April 9, 2002 Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) 3. Develop a simple prototype (mock) model to demonstrate the utility of the full conceptual model. 4. Vet the prototype model to key members of the ETWG  Acquire additional knowledge base  Revise prototype model

April 9, 2002 Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) 5. Develop Design Criteria for LOSL Ecological Model  Consider linkages with H&H and coastal models and Shared Vision Model  Consider model flexibility and ease of refinement  Consider visualization capabilities  Develop configuration of model to the LOSL system, including selection of temporal and spatial resolution and representation of wetlands and other key habitats in the model  Other design criteria in consultation with EWTG and Study Group

April 9, 2002 Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) 6. Hold workshop to demonstrate conceptual model, prototype model and design criteria to ETWG, Study Group, and other key stakeholders.  Workshop in early September  Get feedback during workshop and incorporate into conceptual model and design criteria

April 9, 2002 Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) 7. Prepare Ecosystem Model development and application plan. Include:  Conceptualization and assumptions  Code language and structure  Input/output design  Calibration strategy  Application approach and linkage with Shared Vision Model