Lecture 9 Fragmented landscapes Landscape ecology Agroecology.

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Presentation transcript:

Lecture 9 Fragmented landscapes Landscape ecology Agroecology

Macropterous Carabidae Brachypterous Carabidae Dimorphic Carabidae Fragmented landscapes Idiosyncratic species Not nested High species turnover Slightly nested Moderate species turnover Highly nested Low species turnover Extinction driven system Random system Colonization driven system Colonization Persistence Nebria brevicollis Notiophilus biguttatus Carabus nemoralis Predictable species occurrences

Glanville fritillary Melitaea cinxia

The metapopulation of Melitaea cinxia

Mainland – island pattern Patchy regional distribution Patchy regional distribution without dispersal A combination of these patterns Different types of metapopulations

The Lotka – Volterra model of population growth Levins (1969) assumed that the change in the occupancy of single spatially separated habitats (islands) follows the same model. Assume P being the number of islands (total K) occupied. Q= K-P is then the proportion of not occupied islands. m is the immigration and e the local extinction probability. Immigration Emigration At equilibrium dP/dt = 0

The basic Levins model The basic function of the theory of island colonization of McArthur and Wilson The models describe changes in species numbers and occupancies in time The last model describes the changes occurrence probability on patch i at colonization rate  and extinction rate  Additional „canonical’ assumptions The basic model of metapopulation ecology describes the probability of occurrence in terms of mean patch distances d ij, the average migration distance , and the source island area A j

What does metapopulation ecology predict? Occurrences of Hesperia comma in fragmented landscapes in southern England (from Hanski 1994) Blue: occurrences Red absences Line: 50% chance to occur In fragmented landscapes occupancy declines nonlinear with decreasing patch area and with decreasing conncetivity There is a lower threshold of regional (metapopulation) extinction. This threshold can be predicted from the Levin’s model if species dispersal rates are known.

The fraction of occupied networks depends on the number of patches in a network. Bełow a certain threshold the species goes extinct Number of patches per network Fraction of occupied networks Data from the Glanville Fritillary redrawn from Thomas and Hanski (1997). Theoretical threshold

T R : regional extinction time T L : local extinction time K : regional number of patches p : Mean number of occupied patches Long term survival is only possible when the average proportion P/K of occupied patches is larger than 3 K -1 /2 : P > 3K 1/2 The model of Gurney and Nisbet (1978)(based on a stochastic form of the metapopulation model of Levins) predicts long term regional survival of a species if the average proportion of occupied patches is larger than 3 times K Regional extinction times P K 0.5 Median time to extinction

Local time to extinction Years Species OccurrencesRegional time to extinction Carabus granulatus E E E E E+20 Pterostichus melanarius E E E E E+20 Pterostichus strennus (Panzer) E E E E E+20 Oxypselaphus obscurus (Herbst) E E E E+12 Pterostichus diligens (Sturm) Synuchus vivalis (Illiger) Patrobus atrorufus (Stroem) Pterostichus antracinus Pterostichus minor (Gyllenhal) Carabus nemoralis Muller Notiophilus palustris (Duftshmid) Clivina fossor (Linnaeus) Stomis pumicatus (Panzer) Leistus rufomarginatus (Duftshmid) Epaphius secalis (Paykull) Notiophilus biguttatus (Fabricius) Calathus melanocephalus (Linnaeus) Calathus mollis (Marsham) Dischirius globosus (Herbst) Leistus ferrugineus (Linnaeus) Carabus hortensis Linnaeus Calathus micropterus (Duftschmid) Calathus fuscipes (Goeze) Carabus cancelatus Illiger Extinction times of Mazuran ground beetles Local extinction times are roughly proportional to local abundances

SPOMSIM

Today’s reading Metapopulation: pulation pulation Metapopulation research group: pop/ pop/ Metapopulation and extinction: as.wolosz/metapop.htm as.wolosz/metapop.htm Landscape ecology: The state of art NRS_534_readings/Turner_AnnRevEcoSy s_2005.pdf