The Policy Landscape: Barriers to Commercialization of GM Rice Eric J. Wailes, Alvaro Durand-Morat, and Eddie C. Chavez Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture Fayetteville, Arkansas USA 19 th ICABR Conference “Impacts of the Bioeconomy on Agricultural Sustainability, the Environment and Human Health” Ravello, Italy: June 16-19, 2015

Science vs. Politics Despite ex ante estimates of huge net benefits – Potentials to address nutrition/health, biotic and abiotic stresses, herbicide tolerance GM Rice is yet to be commercialized due to: – Lack of political will to take on anti-GM activists – Knowledge vacuum that feeds into anti-GM role – EU, Japan, Middle East aversion to GM crops – Unwillingness of key exporters to lose limited markets

GM Rice Authorizations Event NameTrait Authorization (Country/year) FoodFeedCultivation 7Crp#10 Anti-allergy, antibiotic resistance Japan/2007 GMShanyou63Bt Insect toleranceChina/2009 Hauhui-1 /TT51-1Bt Insect tolerance China/2009 LLRice06Herbicide toleranceUSA/2000 USA/1999 LLRice62Herbicide tolerance Australia/2008 Canada/2006 Colombia/2008 Honduras/2011 Mexico/2007 NewZealand/2008 Philippines/2012 Russia/2007 SouthAfrica/2011 USA/2000 Canada/2006 Philippines/2012 SouthAfrica/2011 USA/2000 USA/1999 LLRice601Herbicide tolerance Colombia/2008 USA/2008 USA/2006 Tarom molaii +cry1Ab Bt Insect toleranceIran/2004

Outline Scope of the project Structure of Country Studies Rice in Selected Study Countries Elements of the Policy Landscapes Closing comments

Colleagues E. Chavez Philippines A. Durand-Morat Colombia/Honduras J. Jing China R. Mane India F. Tsiboe Ghana E. Wailes USA M. Alam Bangladesh H. De Steur EU S. Ito Japan F. Mwaijande Tanzania Z. Zheng China

Geographical scope of the project

Project Activities 1.Qualitative assessment of the policy landscape for GM rice in the following countries: Bangladesh, China, Colombia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Tanzania, the EU, and the US. 2.CV analyses of producer and consumer willingness to pay and willingness to adopt GM rice in China, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Ghana, Colombia, and Honduras. We examine in particular GM events associated with pest tolerance and micro-nutrient fortification. 3. Ex ante global impact of GM rice adoption in selected countries. We focus on major rice importers who are more concerned about domestic self-sufficiency than international approval of GM rice that would constrain export trade.

The Policy Landscape for GM Rice Key Actors Anti-GM Activists Political leaders Regulators Producers/Millers Consumers

Structure of Country Studies Qualitative policy analyses were conducted using a common outline for all countries: A.Overview of rice in the food and agricultural economy B.Overview of the political agricultural economy and food policy environment of the country C.History and development of current biotechnology and GM policy D.Identification of the political, legal, regulatory and socio-economic barriers to the acceptance and use of GM rice E.Critical assessment/conclusions of barriers to the acceptance and use of GM rice.

Rice Production, average, TMT

Rice Consumption and SSR, Ratio

Rice Exporter/Importer, , TMT

Per Capita Rice Consumption, , kg.

GM Rice Issues Interest of the government/food security Producer support Consumer support Anti-GM Activism/Political Power/Knowledge Vacuum Regulatory environment, lags, costs Intensity in the diet Share agricultural economy/trade Degree of self-sufficiency Trade dependency General GM treatment Political activism

Country Cross Comparisons BGCHCOEUINJPPHTZUS Gov Producers +++-?-+-- Consumers +-+-?-+++ Anti-GM -- ~ Regs ~ Politics Diet Trade Net

Closing comments Predicting commercialization has proven futile However, several countries—including Bangladesh, China, the Philippines, possibly Columbia are in a position to commercialize Rice is prone to crises—thinly traded, concentrated exporter structure, vulnerable to abiotic climate events A smooth transition into GM rice is unlikely but a market crisis is likely to be the trigger.

Closing comments Governments and academic community need to confront the GM knowledge vacuum more forcefully Consequences (estimates of forgone benefits) of misinformation by the anti-GM activists need to be highlighted. Must recognize failure to commercialize GM rice is a humanitarian crisis most severely affecting people in poverty and children.

Thank you