© 2007 Lawrence Moore June 2008 Climate Briefing  Recent Climate Variability  Seasonal Outlook for the Globe  ENSO Status and Tutorial.

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Presentation transcript:

© 2007 Lawrence Moore June 2008 Climate Briefing  Recent Climate Variability  Seasonal Outlook for the Globe  ENSO Status and Tutorial

Onset of the Northern Monsoons June minus May Climatological Precipitation

Moron et al., 2008 (Climate Dynamics, JATBS) Onset of SW Monsoon in the Philippines Annual Cycle of precipitation Predicting onset using CCA

MAY Leading EOFs: Rainfall and SST Anomaly ( ) Rainfall (16.9%) SST (24.5%) R = 0.92 EEE E E E E E E L L L L L L

Observed SST and Precipitation Anomalies May 2008

Composite 850 hPa Anomalous Streamfunction (Std.) MAY (15 La Niña Events) Predictor: Observed March SST

La Niña?El Niño ? Onset Late?49 Onset Early?112 P < Onset of the Indian Monsoon at Kerala Kerala

La Niña?El Niño ? Onset Late?49 Onset Early?112 P < Onset of the Indian Monsoon at Kerala

QUESTIONS?