Clim-Run: Tourism in Croatia Čedo Branković Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) Grič 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia (cedo.brankovic@cirus.dhz.hr) Caroline Brosy, Marjana Gajić-Čapka, Ivan Güttler, Kristian Horvath, Vladimir Kalinski, Robert Pašičko, Mirta Patarčić, Melita Perčec-Tadić, Lidija Srnec, Ksenija Zaninović

Summary on Croatia’s tourism: * Most of Croatia’s tourism is based on sun and sea - 96% of the tourism trade is generated in the Adriatic counties which have the most favourable climate * The structure of tourist facilities is very uneven - Nearly 50% of beds are available in private households, 25% in camps and only 13% in hotels (of which 4* and 5* hotels make only 40%) * The tourism sector permanently employs about 95,000 - 7% of country’s total work force. * In 2012, the total number of arrivals was 11.5 millions - About one third in private households - Total spending accumulated to 7.3 billion Euros * Croatia’s tourism is characterised by pronounced seasonality – In 2012, 87% of nights was realised in the period June to September

Summary of replies to tourism questionnaire: Respondents: - 7 interviews, 9 county tourism associations, 7 at the 1st Workshop (over 60 invitations!) - Ministry of Tourism, Croatian National Tourist Board, 1 national park, 3 hotel groups, 1 local community, Institute for Tourism, consultancy company, health tourism expert, independent consultant Replies: - Climate variability and extreme events affect business activities (except one!) - Climate-related risks are important or very important - Of most importance are droughts, water quality, storms, atmospheric pollution, loss of biodiversity, coastal erosion, sea level rise - But also: extreme events, inter-seasonal variability and change of length of (holiday) season, i.e. the beginning and the end of season - Most of respondents use only daily weather forecasts! - The future climate change are envisaged to have largest impact on outdoor activities (including camping), investment in energy efficiency and may pose a threat to natural attractiveness (e.g. in national parks) - Most important climate parameter is precipitation (about 75% of all responses) followed by temperature, extreme weather events and winds

Product development: * Defining stakeholders’ needs - Based on the questionnaire replies, it was possible to only broadly define stakeholders’ needs - For many users, extension of the peak season to shoulder seasons is the most “appealing” consequence of potential climate change - climate change should not be always associated with negative connotation - Croatia may be in a relatively better position when compared with other Mediterranean competitors - A comprehensive measure that defines a human (instinctive) perception of climate at certain location (for various time intervals) - based on fact that most tourists appreciate climate through the sense of comfort (or pleasure) - tourist comfort index (TCI) - or any derivative - for both present and future climate seems to be a quantity that would appropriately satisfy needs of most tourism stakeholders in Croatia - it could be defined for any location (region) and any time period (week, month, season) - it may look complex (because it includes various climatic parameters) but there are ways to make it simple and widely acceptable

Product development: * PET – Physiologically Equvalent Temperature (thermal impact on humans) - Derived from the equation of thermal balance between human body and the environment - Easy interpretation of results - Includes thermal sensation scale ranging from “very cold” to “very warm” Rovinj Mali Lošinj Zadar Hvar Dubrovnik y-axis: percentage of days Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)

Product development: * CIT – Climate Index for Tourism – integrates thermal, aesthetic and physical parts - Thermal part measures energy balance human body-atmosphere - Aesthetic part is sky condition: from clear to overcast - Physical components are wind and rain - CIT describes quality of climate conditions for activities for which it is specifically designed Rating class unacceptable acceptable very poor marginal ideal CIT for cycling Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)

Product development: One location – various activities * Examples of CIT Rovinj Mali Lošinj Zadar Hvar Dubrovnik Beach tourism One location – various activities One activity – various locations Ksenija Zaninović (DHMZ)

Other points: * Climate change has become a part of Strategy of Croatia’s tourism - Strategy to year 2020 - No major, potentially adverse, impacts of climate change on tourism are envisaged - Temperature rise may cause positive impact (extended season, increased competitiveness wrt southern Mediterranean countries) * Seasonal (monthly) forecasts * Energy efficiency of hotels (Croatian reality - research covered 47 hotels) - Hotels associate sustainable construction with an increase in initial investment - Only one hotel monitors the amount of waste - Only one hotel recycles the material from the guest rooms and common facilities - Water “savings” - washing machines used even if not fully loaded - Heating in 92% of hotels by oil, all swimming pools are heated by oil - Cooling installed in 53% of hotels, most surfaces covered in glass - No use of energy from renewable sources! * Development of one mountain resort - Detailed analysis of terrain elevations, orientations of ridges and slopes --> capacity estimations - Analysis of solar impact at 9, 12 and 15 local time --> warm and cold zones