World Cotton Market In the Next Season Önümüzdeki Sezonda Dünya Pamuk Pazarı Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated

World Cotton Prices Dünya Pamuk Fiyatları cents/lb Sources: Cotlook, Reuters

cents/lb Sources: Cotlook, Reuters World Cotton Prices Dünya Pamuk Fiyatları

Lower Acreage Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS million acres Factors Contributing to Recent Movement Yakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Lower Acreage million acres Cotton/Corn new crop futures: cotton/corn ratio Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS, Reuters (crop price ratios are Jan-Apr averages of new crop futures (Dec 2013 for cotton & corn, Nov 2013 for soybeans) Factors Contributing to Recent Movement Yakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Lower Acreage Higher Exports thousand tons of U.S. cotton shipped, rolling 4-week average Source: USDA Factors Contributing to Recent Movement Yakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Lower Acreage Higher Exports Source: USDA USDA export forecasts in million tons Factors Contributing to Recent Movement Yakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Lower Acreage Higher Exports, lower stocks for exporters Source: USDA USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons Factors Contributing to Recent Movement Yakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Lower Acreage Higher Exports, more stocks in China Source: USDA USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons Factors Contributing to Recent Movement Yakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Lower Acreage Higher Exports Chinese policy Factors Contributing to Recent Movement Yakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Price Outlook Fiyatlara Bakış Record stocks, but stocks withheld from market - Demand-related questions /14 acreage & Production - Chinese cotton policy

Source: USDA Production Surplus Expected in 2013/ /14’te Üretim Fazlalığı Bekleniyor Early USDA estimates Source: USDA million tons

Source: USDA million tons Stocks Forecast to Reach another Record Stokların Yeni bir Rekor Kırması Bekleniyor Source: USDA

Stocks Forecast to Further Concentrate in China Stokların Çin’de Daha da Yoğunlaşması Bekleniyor Source: USDA million tons

Buy and withhold from the market How to supply mills? Releases from reserves? Imports? million tons 6.5 Chinese Reserves Çin Rezervleri

Chinese Reserves Chinese Growers Çinli Yetiştiriciler 13% VAT 20,400 RMB/ton 150 cents/lb 17,750 RMB/ton 128 cents/lb

Chinese Spinning Mills 19,000 RMB/ton (137 cents/lb) −Slow delivery −Lower grades offered when higher grades wanted −Higher volumes and higher grades promised for release Chinese Reserves Çin Rezervleri

Chinese Mill-Use Çin İşletme Kullanımı Source: USDA million tons

Chinese Yarn Imports Çin İplik İthalatları thousand tons Record volumes in recent months 40% from Pakistan 20% from India Source: Cotlook

Chinese Spinning Mills 19,000 RMB/ton (137 cents/lb) Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) allowed as part of WTO agreement 894,000 tons (4.1 million bales) with 1% duty Sliding-Scale Quota, duty varies with price (5-40%) Discretionary volume, 3:1 ratio Outside of quota, 40% duty Untried until this year 13% VAT Imports Chinese Reserves Çin Rezervleri

cents/lb Source: Cotlook Outside quota option becomes viable around 85 cents/lb Higher prices could be expected to trigger releases Chinese & World Cotton Prices Çin vey Dünya Pamuk Fiyatları

World Consumption less China Çin Hariç Dünya Tüketimi Source: USDA million tons

Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated