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Culture, Rationality, and the Tragedy of the Science Communications Commons

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Left_right None at all Extremely high risk Very low Low Between low and moderate Moderate Between moderate and high High Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent N = 1,885. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk-perception outcome variable. X-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82).

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Left_right None at all Extremely high risk Very low Low Between low and moderate Moderate Between moderate and high High Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent N = 1,885. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk-perception outcome variable. X-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82). r = , p < 0.01

Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades” N = 1,898. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk-perception outcome variable. Y-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7- point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82).

The science communication problem

I. Hypotheses & evidence II.Tragedy of the risk perception commons III. A polluted science communication environment IV. “... a new political science...” The science communication problem

Two Hypotheses: “knowledge deficit” “bounded rationality” 1.Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) 2.Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) The science communication problem

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, (2012). Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) PIT prediction: knowledge deficit & Bounded Rationality High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, (2012). U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Lesser Risk Greater Risk Science literacy Numeracy low high perceived risk (z-score) lowhigh PIT prediction actual variance “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, (2012). U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Two Hypotheses: “knowledge deficit” “bounded rationality” 1.Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) 2.Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) The science communication problem

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Left_right None at all Extremely high risk Very low Low Between low and moderate Moderate Between moderate and high High Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent N = 1,885. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk-perception outcome variable. X-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82). r = , p < 0.01

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Abortion procedure Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control HPV Vaccination Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical communitarians egalitarian individualists Cultural Cognition Worldviews egalitarian communitarians Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk cats/badgers hierarchical individualists

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Concealed carry bans Climate change Nuclear waste disposal Concealed carry bans

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence Concealed Carry Climate Change Nuclear Power 31% 54% 22% 58% 61% 72% Difference in Likelihood of Agreeing Scientist is “Expert” 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on...

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Nuclear waste disposal Concealed carry bans

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Nuclear waste disposal Perceived Scientific Consensus: Low Risk High Risk Concealed carry bans

Two Hypotheses: “knowledge deficit” “bounded rationality” 1.Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) 2.Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) The science communication problem

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension PIT variance Greater Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser CCT variance Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitaran

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension PIT variance Greater Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser CCT variance Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitaran Mine is bigger!

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension PIT variance Greater Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser CCT variance Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitaran So what!What is relationship of PIT & CCT

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension PIT variance Greater Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser CCT variance Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitaran PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension PIT variance Greater Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser CCT variance Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitaran PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension PIT variance Greater Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser CCT variance Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitaran PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser PIT Prediction Actual Result Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist Low High Science comprehension

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser PIT Prediction Actual Result Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist Low High Science comprehension

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser PIT Prediction Actual Result Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low High Science comprehension

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser PIT Prediction Actual Result Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low High Science comprehension Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ

Low High perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Science comprehension Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. perceived risk (z-score) Greater Lesser PIT Prediction Actual Result Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low High Science comprehension Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ High Sci lit/numeracy mean Low Sci lit/numeracy sample mean POLARIZATION INCREASES as science comprehension increases

NSF SES : Critical reasoning and the cultural cognition of risk

I. Hypotheses & evidence II.Tragedy of the risk perception commons III. A polluted science communication environment IV. “... a new political science...” The science communication problem

Not too little rationality, but too much. The science communication problem

I. Hypotheses & evidence II.Tragedy of the risk perception commons III. A polluted science communication environment IV. “... a new political science...” The science communication problem

is not normal The science communication problem

is not normal The science communication problem This is normal! Flouridation of water

This is normal! is not normal The science communication problem

is not normal The science communication problem This is normal!

Medical x-rays is not normal The science communication problem This is normal! Medical x-rays

Nullius in verba: “take no one’s word”

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Communitarianism hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists Cultural Cognition Worldviews Science comprehension scores

Cultural Cognition Worldviews Hierarchy Egalitarianism Communitarianism Individualism Science comprehension scores

Normal

Pathological

NSF SES : Critical reasoning and the cultural cognition of risk

Normal Pathological

Normal Polluted science communication environment

Unpolluted science communication enviornment Polluted science communication environment

The science communication problem I. Hypotheses & evidence II.Tragedy of the risk perception commons III. A polluted science communication environment IV. “... a new political science...”

pertussis polio MMR childhood (19-35 mos.) vaccination coverage HBV HPV vaccine HBV vaccine

GM Foods

J. Am. Med. Ass’n 297, (2007) Oct. 2005…

Oct. 2007

Culturally Identifiable Experts Source: Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, (2010). Hierarchy Egalitarianism Communitarianism Individualism

The science communication environment as public good

“The Liberal Republic of Science...”

Nullius in verba: “take no one’s word”

Cultural Cognition Worldviews Hierarchy Egalitarianism Communitarianism Individualism Science comprehension scores

Unpolluted science communication enviornment Polluted science communication environment

“The Liberal Republic of Science...”

“The Liberal Republic of Science... and Popper’s revenge”

The science communication environment as public good Science communication impact assessment

The science communication environment as public good

“... a new political science for a world itself quite new...” The science of science communication

“The Liberal Republic of Science...”

“The Liberal Republic of Science... freedom & knowledge”

The science communication problem I. Hypotheses & evidence II.Tragedy of the risk perception commons III. A polluted science communication environment IV. “... a new political science...”

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to