The Energy Emergency and the Developing World.

” A whole host of factors such as climate change, land grabs, food price spikes and intensive farming are stopping nearly 900 million - that's 1 in 8 people - worldwide from having enough to eat.” “Oxfam’s Grow Campaign has a simple message: another future is possible, and we can build it together. Over the coming years, decisive action across the world could enable hundreds of millions more people to feed their families and prevent catastrophic climate change from destroying their (and our) futures. But only if we collectively stop oursleepwalk towards ecological disaster. This is Oxfam’s wakeup call.”

How will climate change affect the developing world? How do existing international agreements on carbon emissions affect the developing world? How can the world respond to the rise of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries? Can 'Trade Justice' and 'Climate Justice' co-exist? Can we reach an international climate deal that would be fair and acceptable to all?

Why Energy Emergency? Scale and impacts of climate change being revised upwards Carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise. Risk of being ‘locked in’ to 5 or 6 degree temperature rise.

The Developing World Historically low emissions but (at least for the BRIC countries) rapidly rising High impacts of climate change Location of major carbon sinks (rainforests, peatlands) Energy Poor. Population increase Affected by ‘false solutions to climate change.

“Climate Change will affect us all, but it is the world’s poorest people who are suffering first and worst.” World Development Movement.

Christian Aid. Scientists predict that at the current rate of carbon emissions tens of millions more people will go hungry in the next couple of decades as agricultural yields diminish across the globe. And if nothing is done to stem a rise of 2°C in global average temperatures by they say million more people will be forced to leave their homes. Around 30 million more people will go hungry as agricultural yields go into recession across the globe. One to three billion people will suffer acute water shortages, while nearly a fifth of Bangladesh will be submerged as sea levels rise. Not that we have to wait until then for the bad stuff, though. A 1°C rise, expected by 2020, would see an extra 240 million people experiencing water ‘stress’ – where supply can no longer be stretched to meet demand. The predicted 1.3°C rise by 2025 would see tens of millions more going hungry due to falling agricultural yields in the developing world and rising global food prices.

One Agricultural yields in some African countries declining by 50% by million people and 30% of African coastal infrastructure could face flooding by By m more people could be living in malaria infested areas.

How many are being killed per year now? WHO: 150, 000 WDM (2007): 160, 000 Global Humanitarian Forum (2009): 300, 000 Climate Vulnerability Monitor (2012): 400, 000.

Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of A Hot Planet Climate change killing 400, 000 people a year now. Air pollution caused by burning fossil fuels kills 4.5 million people per year. 100 million dead by 2030 if we don’t act on climate change. Costing the world $1.2 trillion per year Wiping 1.6 % of global GDP annually- will be 3.2% by (Only 0.5% of GDP needed to reduce emissions)

‘Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 degree warmer world must be avoided.’ Report by the World Bank (November 2012) World on track for a 4 degree world. Warns of catastrophic consequences. Effects of warming climate ‘tilted against many of the world’s poorest nations’

Other effects Food rises in 2008 and 2010: linked to biofuels and Russian wildfires – massive loss of wheat harvest. Significant prices increases led to hardship and food riots in several countries.

The Rise of the BRIC countries

What about China? China world’s greatest emitter in 2006 In 2012 China’s emissions became virtually the same as those those of EU. Increased emissions 9% in 2011 while developed nations’ emissions fell. 1/5 of China’s emissions caused by the production of goods for export to the developed world. The figures don’t include international travel so the difference between China and EU probably greater. China has a small share of historical emissions.

The Developing World in 2030 and 2050 IEA predicts a 40% increase in energy demand % of that will come from coal in China and India. 90% will come from developing countries. Population: Projected increase to 9.2 billion in 2050.

Sustainable development? 1.5 billion people in the world with no electricity (two thirds in Asia, the remainder in Africa). 80% of India’s population (2010) depend on firewood for cooking WHO: smoke from burning wood kills 1.3 million per year (more than malaria).

Fair Trade “Fair trade causes climate change because of the ‘food miles’ that its products travel. I’m buying locally instead.” If someone said this to you, how would you reply?

You could say….. 1) Vast majority of fair trade products are transported to the UK by ship. 2) Distance travelled is not significant in terms of life cycle emissions. 3) Tomatoes grown in a heated greenhouse in the UK. 4) Not all but most products that people buy are tea, bananas, coffee and chocolate. People are replacing one banana with another banana. Are they seriously suggesting not eating bananas? 5) Even if you say that the Developing world (BRICs) are part of the climate change problem, poor farmers in sub-saharan Africa are not. 6) Fair trade is supporting producers in adapting to climate change.

How to we help the ‘energy poor’? ‘Leapfrog’ the fossil fuel age and go straight to clean energy. Kenya: greatest number of solar panels per person in the world. Phillipines generates 27% of electricity from geothermal energy. Solar panels on 3% of the Sahara would provide for all the world’s energy needs

Christian Aid report. ‘Low carbon Africa: Leapfrogging to a green future’.

Biofuels. EU target: being overhauled from October Action Aid campaigning on ‘Food not Fuel’. Oxfam campaigning on the way biofuels is driving ‘land grabs’. Biofuels is one of the four ‘If’s.

What is on offer in international negotiations. Offsetting Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) REDD (Reducing emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation).

2 degrees or 1.5? Developed countries: 2 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels (equivalent to 450 parts per million) Many developing countries 1.5 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels (equivalent to 350 parts per million).

“the kind of agreement currently on offer is both inadequate and in many ways, unjust. This is because the political forces and special interests …. have essentially worked on two fronts, trying not only to block the UN talks completely but also to weaken them from within- using their presence at the talks, and influence on politicians, to ensure that their financial interests come before the effectiveness of any solutions adopted so that the agreements reached are often watered down and full of loopholes- and also, in many cases, favour the rich at the expense of the poor.” Phil Thornhill (ex-Co-ordinator of CCC)

At two degrees we would lose the coral reefs. At two degrees we would melt Greenland. At two degrees my country would not survive. As a president I cannot accept this. As a person I cannot accept this. President Nasheed of the Maldives in 2009

What should we call for? A fair global climate deal (incorporating something like Contraction and Convergence) Climate Finance for the Developing world- for adaptation and mitigation.. Opportunities for clean development for the developing world. Support for small farmers/ fair trade. Protecting carbon sinks (e.g. rainforests).

Judgements on the Doha Climate Talks December “One in eight people worldwide go hungry every day. Yet the lack of progress on agriculture at these talks means that small scale farmers who feed most of the world’s population will receive no further support, even though droughts, floods and erratic rain are making it increasingly difficult for them to put food on the table." CAFOD Head of Campaigns Clare Lyons "Those who are indifferent need to open their eyes. Those who are obstructive and self-serving need to realise we are not talking about how comfortably your people live but whether our people live." Kieren Keke, Nauru Foreign Minister, who led the Alliance of Small Island States.