REASONING AND DECISION MAKING Shannon Baker And Alyssa Candelario

What is reasoning? ◦ Reasoning is the action of thinking about something in a rational and realistic way.

Two types of reasoning ◦ Inductive Reasoning: is reasoning from a specific case or cases and deriving a general rule. It draws inferences from observations in order to make generalizations. ◦ Deductive reasoning: Deductive reasoning happens when a researcher works from the more general information to the more specific. Sometimes this is called the “top-down” approach because the researcher starts at the top with a very broad spectrum of information and they work their way down to a specific conclusion.

Inductive vs. Deductive ◦ Inductive reasoning: Football players are tall and muscular. Derek is tall and muscular, therefore, he must play football. ◦ Deductive reasoning: All apples are fruits, all fruits grow on trees; therefore, all apples grow on trees.

Decision Making ◦ Decision making is the thought process of selecting a practical choice from the available options. ◦ Unlike reasoning there are no established rules for decision making, therefore we may not always know the consequences of our decisions. ◦ When we are making a decision we have to weigh out what we already know about the situation, and having to come to a conclusion about what we feel is the right choice. ◦ Example: I will not go to the concert tonight, because I have so much homework I have to do and I'm already behind.

Two systems of reasoning and decision making. ◦ Automatic System: (Referred to as system one) Requires the brain to process at a rapid and unconscious way. It evolves following your gut feeling or a guess based on intuition rather than knowing any facts about a problem or decision. ◦ Controlled System: (Referred to as system two) Is the opposite of Automatic system. The controlled system requires more of a thought process. It is a lot slower than the automatic system, you take your time to reflect on an issue. (Example: solving a math problem)

Biases and Heuristics ◦ Heuristics: what the brain uses produce decisions or judgments. ◦ Biases: not having an open mind about a topic; One sided.

Confirmation Bias ◦ Confirmation Bias means searching only for information to prove or confirm your theory. ◦ Example: An author is writing a segment on an important issue may only include information that supports hers or his views on the issue.

Hindsight Bias ◦ The term hindsight bias refers to the tendency people have to view events as more predictable than they really are. After an event, people often believe that they knew it would happen. ◦ Example: You are about to take an exam for which you waited last minute to study for, and you feel unsure about the results; however, when you get your grade back it is an A, you tell your friends, “I knew I was going to ace that exam.” and you actually end up believing it.

Availability Heuristic ◦ The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given persons mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. ◦ Example: You are watching the news and you hear that there has been a lot of home break-ins happening, so you start to make a judgment that home break-ins are a lot more common then it really is.

Representativeness Heuristic ◦ Representativeness heuristic is the same as availability heuristic but instead of using examples we estimate from something we already know. ◦ Examples: Three men stand in front of you one of which is a billionaire and you’re told to choose who he is and you win a million dollars. One is wearing casual attire, the second a suit, and the third has dreads and is wearing dirty clothes and flip flops. You choose the one man who is dressed in a very nice suit and cleaned up very well. You’d be using a stereotype to make generalizations about those three men.

Base Rate Fallacy ◦ Base rate fallacy (Also known as neglecting base rates, base rate neglect, base rate bias), is an error in thinking. You tend to ignore information about a topic, in favor of other information. ◦ Example: Let’s say you read an expert report on cell phones and you’ve decided you’re going to get the new iPhone 6 but then you talk to your cousin about it and she tells you about how they bend and aren’t even that great so you decide to go with the galaxy S5 because that’s what she has and she loves it.