International Migration and Economic Development Robert E.B. Lucas Boston University

Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000) Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

Given widening income and demographic gaps migration pressures will continue to grow

Medium Population Growth Projections Annual Growth : Ages 15-29

Pressures to emigrate often reflect –failure to create jobs –failure to maintain security Emigration option is a critical safety valve

Average Unemployment Rates Select Countries of Origin: (approx).

Refugees Originating Per Thousand Population (2003)

Despite growing economic gaps, migration has grown less quickly than trade and financial flows

Migration is not a substitute for development Some risk of long-term dependence on migration

Migrants are the big winners Despite commercialization of migration These gains to migrants are a form of development

But migration can have important impacts on development at home Not all impacts are positive

Poverty alleviation greatest from low-skill circular migration High levels of remittances reach poor Low skill workers at home benefit

Reported Remittances Sent per Migrant (2000) Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics and UN Trends in Migrant Stock

But migration of low skilled workers to OECD is largely from neighboring countries

Low-Skill Migration Rates to OECD

Low Education Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000) Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

South-South Migration Dominates For Low Skill Workers From Low Income Countries Most is irregular Calls for bilateral/regional agreements

High Skill Migration to OECD Growing Rapidly Percent of tertiary educated population abroad in OECD: 2000 Source: Mapped from Docquier and Marfouk (2005)

Tertiary Educated, Non-OECD Adults In EU-15 By region of origin (2000) Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

High Skill Migration to N America Dominates Expatriates in OECD Countries: 2000

Distribution of Tertiary Educated Population From E Europe in OECD: 2000

Migration policies of high income countries Not part of coherent development strategy Competition to attract highly skilled (students) Yet protect low skill sectors (agriculture)

Low-Skill Temporary Migration Schemes Present a Dilemma Integration and rights of migrants Family separation & social effects Managing return Transferable pension schemes Mode 4 and contracting Cost of re-entry (irregulars)