Development of Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-President for Strategy & Commercial Moscow, Russia next
World Air Freight Market Will Grow 6.2% Year Through 2025 RTKs, billions HistoryForecast High Base Low 5.3% growth per year Average annual growth High 7.1% Base 6.2% Low 5.4% nextprevious 1 Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast
Average Growth in % Average World Air Cargo Freight growth, 6.2% Domestic China Intra-Asia Asia-North America Europe-Asia Latin America-North America Latin America-Europe Europe-North America Intra-Europe Europe-Middle East North America Russia Europe-Africa 0%2%4%6%8%10%12% nextprevious 2 Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast
Total volume in 2007г ~ $80 billion 190 billion tons / kilometer 41 mln tons Market Growth Forecast (2020): - On Non ramp Aircraft – 6%-6,2% (according to Boeing, Airbus, IATA) - On Ramp Aircraft – 8%-10% (according to Volga-Dnepr Group’s forecast) Air Cargo Market for ramp aircraft Charter Services Air Cargo Market for non ramp aircraft Scheduled Services 1879 Aircraft ~98,5%$78,8 billion DC-10, MD-11 A Ил-96 Ту-204 B AC ~1,4% $1 billion Ан Ил-76 Ан-12 C AC An $771 mln per year (2007) ~ 70% market share 311 AC В747F $30 billion per year (2007) ~ 38% market share nextprevious 3
Scheduled cargo operations market (2007) $80 billion Ramp aircraft operations market 2007 $1 billion Ukraine and other countries 26% Russian civil aviation 74 % By 2020 Russian transport aviation development strategy specifies: 1.Increase in dominant position of ramp aircraft cargo operations (from 74% up to 90%). Already now Russian cargo air carriers play the role of international military-cargo airlines. With all that US, European and UNO show the growing need in the services of Russian ramp aircraft air carriers. 2.Expansion on the market of general cargo transportation and share growth on this market (from 1% up to 10%). European countries 24% Russian civil aviation 1,4 % other countries 7,6 % USA 31% Asian and Pacific Region countries 1,4 % nextprevious 4
Charter Services Scheduled Services Current Ramp Cargo Fleet (150 aircraft) Current Non Ramp Cargo Fleet (21 aircraft)Non Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (92 aircraft) An-124 Il-76 An-124 Il-76 В747F ≤10 tons; 3; 14% Tons; 5; 24% ≥ 100 tons; 12; 16% tons; 1; 16% ≤10tons; 91; 63% Tons; 28; 16% ≥ 100 tons; 16; 11% tons; 15; 10% ≤10 tons; 28; 21% Medium Tons; 12; 9% ≥ 100 tons; 55; 39% tons; 41; 31% ≤10 tons; 8; 11% Tons; 24; 36% ≥ 100 tons; 20; 27% tons; 19; 26% 5 previousnext Source: Volga-Dnepr Group Forecast Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (136 aircraft) 212 B 747
6 nextprevious Total volume $80 billion Total volume $105 billion Total volume $55 billion Market volume $160 billion Russia 1,3% Other Countries 98,6% Other Countries 92,0% Other Countries 84,0% Other Countries 98,7% Russia 1,4% Russia 8,0% Russia 16,0%
7 Europe India Middle East, Africa Singapore Krasnoyarsk Khabarovsk Moscow China St.Petersburg USA India Singapore Krasnoyarsk Khabarovsk China Canada Moscow Moscow – natural geographical hub connecting Europe to Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asia Krasnoyarsk – natural geographical hub connecting USA, Europe & Canada to China, Japan and South-East Asia USA Canada nextprevious Europe DC-10, MD-11 B-747, 777
previous Moscow Krasnoyarsk 8 KJA UUS MOW LAX MIL LED FRA NRT NGO HKG SIN KUL DEL TLV NYC YYC HOU ORD NBO AMS LHR BJS SHA next B 747-8F
Total AircraftAircraft TypeDelivery/Retirement ScheduleCurrent Status 22 x Boeing (VP-BIA, BIB)April 2004, July 2005Retired in x Boeing SF (VP-BIC)October 2005In Service 41 x Boeing F (VP-BID)June 2006 (NCA)In Service 62 x Boeing F (VP-BII, BIJ)March 2007 (NCA)In Service 52 x Boeing F (VP-BIA)September 2007Retired in Boeing ERF (VP-BIG)October 2007 (Boeing)In Service 8Boeing ERFFebruary & April 2008 (Boeing)In Service 7Boeing (VP-BIB)March 2008Retired in Boeing (Boeing)On Order nextprevious 9
Boeing nextprevious 10 Boeing Boeing x Boeing x Boeing ERF +3 Boeing ERF Boeing 747 – 8F Boeing 747-8F Boeing
11 nextprevious Cities with population more than 1mln people Regions of significant economic growth Source: Ministry of Economic of RF Federal State Statistics Service
nextprevious 12 Oil & Gas Exploration fields MOSCOW (SVO) YUZHNO- SAKHALINSK (UUS) KRASNOYARSK (KJA) KHABAROVSK (KHV) ST. PETERSBURG (LED) AirBridgeCargo Hubs ABC Schedule Service Air Feeder Service Road Feeder Service Ту-204 B-737, 757, 767 next A320F, A330F
While Boeing 747 freighters offer capacity on long haul international routes, regional aircraft will complement transcontinental services with local distribution capabilities. Tupolev 204C has been selected as the middle range aircraft type to serve Russian domestic markets from ABC hubs in Moscow and Krasnoyarsk. In June 2007, two planes of this type have been ordered with AVIASTAR-SP (Ulyanovsk, Russia), and 3 more are in plans until 2010 AircraftAircraft TypeDelivery ScheduleStatus 1-2Tupolev-204C2009 Quarter 1In production 3-5Tupolev-204CUntil 2010On Option nextprevious 13
exitprevious