Foreign Policy Proposal: Iranian Diplomacy Jenny Wang Tom McCauley

Cartoons

Problems-Threat to Iraq Biggest long-term threat to the existence of the new Iraq government –If U.S withdraw troops now, Iraq might be taken over by Iranian revolutionaries and Shiite militants Apparent covert operations by Iranian government in Iraq –Infiltrated Iraqi political parties –Assassination of certain Iraqi officials

Problems-Nuclear Weapons Enriching of uranium, possibly making nuclear weapons –Denial by Iranian government: insists all it wants to do is provide a stable supply of electricity –Making of nuclear power fuel that can also be used to make nuclear weapons of mass destruction Iran not completely open about intentions and operations according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty- possible violation of due to its enrichment program Nuclear weapons might land in the hands of Islamic extremists or terrorists

Problems-Nuclear Weapons Cont. Suspicious activities in nuclear plants unreported to the IAEA Russia helping in the technology of developing nuclear power Outright rejection of agreement to halt its program to produce enriched uranium after election of Ahmadinejad –urged Muslims to rally behind Iran and accused critics of Iran’s nuclear program of trying to prevent a developing country from making scientific advances Possession of biological warfare agents

Problems-Israel Want the destruction of the Israeli state –Possibly use nuclear weapons against Israel A regime that denies Israel's right to exist in any borders A principal sponsor of Hezbollah Possibility of force used by Israel to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program –Might create war on a large scale in the Middle East

Proposals-diplomacy Option 1 Fuse U.S. military and diplomatic power to both engage Iran and set limits on its activities Obama wants to use American diplomacy to pressure Iran to stop nuclear program, threats to Israel and support of terrorism –Offering memberships into World Trade Organization etc. –Economic investments –Normal diplomatic relations Apply economic sanctions and political isolation if Iran doesn’t cooperate (50% chance of success, within 1 year)

Proposals Cont. Option 2 Turning Iran's Enrichment Activities into a Multilateral Program –jointly managed and operate uranium enrichment program on Iranian soil by a coalition of countries including Iran and other governments such as France, Germany, etc. Pros –Likely to be approved by Iran Cons –Viewed as giving in to Iran

Proposals Cont.-Military Grant tacit approval to Israel to plan and execute air strikes on Iranian enrichment facilities –(67% chance of success, within 2 month) Pros – Eliminates known enrichment facilities. – Israel willing to bear political and military cost of operation. Cons –Politically dangerous: will inflame Muslims and regional nations. –any failure would require follow-on US military action.

Proposals Cont. Option 3 Comprehensive Negotiation-utilizes the EU, Russia, and China’s political and economic resources –Organizing five party negotiations –Convince countries of the global security risk a nuclear Iran –(67% chance of success, within 1 year) Pros –Most likely to gain international support –Provides room for negotiation –Best chance for a long-term solution Cons –Gives Iran opportunity to stall for time –Politically difficult in US. May be characterized as appeasement