CHAPTER 2 POPULATION

WHY IS POPULATION IMPORTANT? Helps explain issues in human geography It’s connected to everything!!!! (economics, health, politics….)

CASE STUDY: INDIA Read the case study on p. 46 and answer the following: Give 2 reasons people in India are having many children 2. Where do most people in India live? 3. How does the age of India’s population negatively affect it’s growing wealth?

Where is the World’s Population Distributed? ISSUE #1 Where is the World’s Population Distributed?

(which areas are clustered, which are sparse? ) Geographers look at two properties to understand global population distribution…. CONCENTRATION (which areas are clustered, which are sparse? ) DENSITY 2/3 of the world’s population lives in East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Western Europe Different ways of measuring this: Arithmetic, Physiological, Agricultural

World Population Cartogram Fig. 2-1: This cartogram displays countries by the size of their population rather than their land area. (Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.) World Growth worldmapper

ARITHMETIC Total number of people divided by total land area (population density) Helps geographers compare populations of different parts of the world (helps understand “where”, people live, but not “why” there is uneven distribution

PHYSIOLOGICAL Number of people supported by a unit area of arable land Helps us understand the capacity of land to support the population The higher the PD, the more pressure on the land to produce enough food

AGRICULTURAL Ratio of the number of farmers to the amount of arable land Helps explain economic differences MDCs have lower AD (why? Benefits?)

LIST 3 PHYSICAL SIMILARITIES THE MOST POPULATED REGIONS SHARE…

LIST 3 PHYSICAL SIMILARITIES THE MOST POPULATED REGIONS SHARE… Live near ocean and/or river w/ easy access to a river 2. Live in low-lying areas 3. Fertile soil 4. Temperate climate 5. All in the NH, between 10*N and 55*N - exception?

Where has the World’s Population Increased? ISSUE #2 Where has the World’s Population Increased?

IMPORTANT MEASUREMENTS Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Natural Increase Rate

MEASURING NIR just subtract CDR from CBR ex. CBR = 20 (20 per 1,000) CDR = 5 (5 per 1,000) - therefore the NIR = 15 or 1.5 % (remember, it’s out of 1,000, not 100) --- know the global trend over the past 60 years (p.53)

TRUE/FALSE? As NIR decreases, the overall population automatically decreases as well.

TRUE/FALSE? FALSE – see graph on p.52 As NIR decreases, the overall population automatically decreases as well. FALSE – see graph on p.52

WHERE IS NIR INCREASING? Almost all growth in NIR is clustered in LDCs It is negative in Europe * What are the implications of this?

Provide and example/explanation of how a country’s NIR could equal 1 (CBR is 100 and CDR is 84)

True/False – the NIR peaked in the 1960s and then decreased during the late 20th century.

True/False – As the NIR decreased the overall population must also decrease.

True/False – The nations with the highest NIR tend to also be the same as those with high CBRs and TFRs. (True)

If a nation has a very high life expectancy would you expect it to most likely have a high or low infant mortality rate? (low)

In general, the IMR reflects a nation’s ___________________ (health care system)

True/False – the combined CDR for LDCs is actually lower than that of MDCs.

Which of the following has the highest CBR? sub-Saharan Africa Europe East Asia (sub-Saharan Africa)

Which of the following has the lowest CDR? sub-Saharan Africa Europe South America (South America)

Which of the following has the highest NIR? sub-Saharan Africa North America South Asia (sub-Saharan Africa)

Which of the following has the highest TFR? Middle East Europe North America (Middle East)

Which of the following has the lowest IMR? North America Southeast Asia South America (North America)

ISSUE #3 Why is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries?

List what you think are the 10 most populated countries in the world

1. China 2. India 3. U.S. 4. Indonesia 5. Brazil 6. Pakistan 7. Bangladesh 8. Nigeria 9. Russia 10. Japan

List what you think will be the 10 most populated countries in the world in the year 2050

1. India 2. China 3. U.S. 4. Pakistan 5. Nigeria 6. Indonesia 7. Bangladesh 8. Brazil 9. Ethiopia 10. Democratic Republic of the Congo

WORLD POPULATION 2010 2050 1. China 2. India 3. U.S. 4. Indonesia 5. Brazil 6. Pakistan 7. Bangladesh 8. Nigeria 9. Russia 10. Japan 1. India 2. China 3. U.S. 4. Pakistan 5. Nigeria 6. Indonesia 7. Bangladesh 8. Brazil 9. Ethiopia 10. Democratic Republic of the Congo PDS

World Population Growth 1950 - 2005 Fig. 2-6: Total world population increased from 2.5 to over 6 billion in slightly over 50 years. The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION A process of change in a society’s population This transition will vary in different places, at different times Process has different stages, every country is either 2,3, or 4

STAGE 1: LOW GROWTH Characterizes most of humanity throughout Earth’s history NIR = 0 (roughly); high CBR and CDR Agricultural revolution led to population increase (8000 BC) but unreliable food supply kept societies in stage 1 until mid-1700s

STAGE 2: HIGH GROWTH After 1750 world population grew MUCH faster CDR plummets and CBR remains about the same (NIR goes way up because the gap between CDR and CBR is high) industrial revolution (mid-1700s) spurred this change and pushed some countries into stage 2 Countries in Europe and NA entered S2 in about 1800, many in Asia and Africa didn’t get there until 1950 (why? – medical revolution)

STAGE 3: MODERATE GROWTH CBR drops sharply and CDR falls, but at a much slower rate than in S2 (NIR increases but only moderately because the gap between CBR and CDR narrows) European and NA countries entered S3 in the first half of the 20th century Most Asian and LA countries moved there recently, most African countries are still in S2 People choose to have fewer children (social behavior changes) ---read p.59

STAGE 4: LOW GROWTH CBR declines until it equals CDR (NIR = 0) Also called zero population growth (TFR results in a lack of change in total population) Most European countries are here Social changes explain the change from S3 to S4 (p.60)

The Demographic Transition Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

TYPE 2 List the factors that push a society from stage 1 to stage 2, stage 2 to stage 3, and stage 3 to stage 4.

TYPE 2 List the factors that push a society from stage 1 to stage 2, stage 2 to stage 3, and stage 3 to stage 4. Industrial rev. and medical rev. - push from 1 to 2 b. People decide to have fewer children – push from 2 to 3 (lower IMR, economic changes such as not working on farms and smaller living spaces in urban settings) c. People have even fewer children due to things such as ,more women in the workforce, more leisure, time, more use on birth control … - push from 3 to 4

Which stage am I? 1. CBR and CDR are about the same, have good technology, food supply and health care Most of human history has been in my stage CBR stays relatively the same as it was in the previous stage, but CDR plummets NIR increases, but moderately, as gap between CDR and CBR narrows

Which stage am I? CBR and CDR are about the same, have good technology, food supply and health care ; zero population growth (Stage 4) Most of human history has been in my stage (Stage 1) 3. CBR stays relatively the same as it was in the previous stage, but CDR plummets (Stage 2) NIR increases, but moderately, as gap between CDR and CBR narrows; CBR drops sharply (Stage 3)

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND POPULATION PYRAMIDS make sure you know dependency ratio, sex ratio and the examples of countries in each stage and what their pyramid looks like as a nation moves through the stages the % of elderly people increases (explains why nations in stages 3 and 4, which are MDCs, have higher CDRs than LDCs)

WHAT DOES A PYRAMID TELL US? Read p.62 and look at examples on p.63 Pay attention to me, I have lots to tell you about my community!

STAGE 2-High Growth: CAPE VERDE (p.64) Figure: 02-17 Title: Demographic transition and population pyramid for Cape Verde Caption: Cape Verde entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in approximately 1950, as indicated by the large gap between birth and death rates since then. As is typical of countries in stage 2 of the demographic transition, Cape Verde has a population pyramid with a very wide base.

STAGE 3-Moderat Growth: CHILE (p.65) Figure: 02-18 Title: Demographic transition and population pyramid for Chile. Caption: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, when death rates declined sharply, and stage 3 in the 1960s, when birth rates declined sharply. Since the mid-1980s, however, birth rates have no longer declined, and Chile's natural increase rate has remained about 1.5.

STAGE 4-Low Growth: DENMARK (p.66) Figure: 02-19 Title: Demographic transition and population pyramid for Denmark. Caption: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition and has experienced virtually no change in total population since the 1970s. The population pyramid is much straighter than that of Cape Verde and that of Chile, a reflection of the relatively large percentage of elderly people and small percentage of children.

POPULATION PYRAMIDS With a partner draw a pyramid representing each state (2,3,4) – no pyramid for stage 1 Add a brief description explaining why the pyramid represents that particular stage Draw 2 pyramids, not labeled, that your classmates will have to identify ( I will tell you which stage to draw)

Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? ISSUE #4 Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

MALTHUS (population growth is outrunning food supply) Neo-Malthusians Critics of Malthus Believe it is worse than Malthus anticipated: 1. more countries have entered stage 2 so gap between population and resources is greater than he anticipated (especially inLDCs) 2. not just food is being outstripped, world population is too much for other resources as well (clean air, arable land,fuel) Food supply is not fixed, it can be expanded (possibilism) Larger population can actually stimulate economic growth, leading to more production of food and technologies Marxists don’t blame pop. growth, they blame inequalities of capitalism

What Malthus had Wrong Since 1950 world food supply has grown faster than global NIR (new techniques, better seeds, use of more land, Green Revolution) Expected world pop. to be 10 billion by 2000, actually 6 billion During past ¼ century population has been increasing at a much slower rate than previous ½ cent. However, this still adds to our population (why?) – so he wasn’t completely wrong

Now it is believed that our population will hit 7 billion by the end of 2011

Food & Population, 1950-2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

DECLINING BIRTH RATES NIR 2 reasons NIR can decline: Lower birth rates Higher death rates *** for obvious reasons most people develop policies to promote #1 NIR

2 STRATEGIES THAT HAVE REDUCED BIRTH RATES DISTRIBUTION OF CONTRACEPTIVES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Lower IMR = having fewer children More/better health care More education

2. DISTRIBUTION OF CONTRACEPTIVES Demand for contraceptives in LDCs is higher than supply (need to be distributed quickly and cheaply) Contraceptive use is especially low in Africa (25% compared to 75% in LA and 66% in Asia) Reasons are economic, religious, and educational/cultural For women in some LDCs having more children is a way to “improve” their social status

Women Using Family Planning

Promoting One-Child Policy in China

WORLD HEALTH THREATS In most countries lower CBRs have been responsible for declining NIRs, but in some regions(especially sub-Saharan Africa) lower NIRs have resulted from higher CDRs Epidemiologic transition focuses on causes of death in each stage of demographic transition

STAGES 1 Stage of pestilence and famine Infectious and parasitic diseases are main causes of deaths (animal and human attacks too) BLACK PLAGUE

STAGE 2 Stage of receding pandemics Improvements of IR reduced spread of infectious diseases Poor people in crowded areas had high death rates 1832 – ½ million die in New York from cholera 1831 – 1/8 of Cairo’s population dies of cholera

Cholera in London, 1854 Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

STAGE 3 Stage of degenerative and human-generated diseases Decrease in deaths from infectious disease Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging (exs. Cancer and heart attacks) ATTACK

STAGE 4 Stage of delayed degenerative disease Same causes of death as in stage 3, but medical advances allow people to live longer Better diets, new types of surgery, less smoking….

Retired Man in Russia

STAGE 5??? What is it? Reasons for it? Reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases? This stage would mean higher CDRs Others say just a temporary setback Evolution (of the diseases, not humans) Poverty (diseases controlled in MDCs are spreading in LDCs) Improved travel

Avian Flu, 2003 - 2006 Fig. 2-25: The first cases of avian flu in this outbreak were reported in Southeast Asia.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005 95% of people living with HIV and 99% of new cases in the last decade come from LDCs (sub-Saharan Africa hit particularly hard Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

Chapter 02: Review

02.01 The country with the second-largest population is 1. China 2. Indonesia 3. Russia 4. United States 5. India

02.01 The country with the second-largest population is 1. China 2. Indonesia 3. Russia 4. United States 5. India

02.02 The number of people per unit of arable land is the 1. Arithmetic density 2. Physiological density 3. Agricultural density 4. Land-use density 5. Population density

02.02 The number of people per unit of arable land is the 1. Arithmetic density 2. Physiological density 3. Agricultural density 4. Land-use density 5. Population density

02.03 Given a choice, people are most likely to live in a place that is 1. Wet 2. Dry 3. Cold 4. Warm 5. High

02.03 Given a choice, people are most likely to live in a place that is 1. Wet 2. Dry 3. Cold 4. Warm 5. High

02.04 Which of the following is the least significant factor affecting population growth rates? 1. Doubling times 2. Sex ratio 3. Total fertility rate 4. Crude death rate 5. Crude birth rate

02.04 Which of the following is the least significant factor affecting population growth rates? 1. Doubling times 2. Sex ratio 3. Total fertility rate 4. Crude death rate 5. Crude birth rate

02.05 Infant mortality rates are highest in 1. East Asia 2. The Middle East 3. South America 4. Africa 5. Central America

02.05 Infant mortality rates are highest in 1. East Asia 2. The Middle East 3. South America 4. Africa 5. Central America

02.06 In which stage of demographic transition are birth rates stable and death rates declining? 5. This situation does not occur in any of the four stages.

02.06 In which stage of demographic transition are birth rates stable and death rates declining? 5. This situation does not occur in any of the four stages.

02.07 Population growth rates are lowest in _________ of the demographic transition. 1. Stage 1 2. Stage 2 3. Stage 3 4. Stage 4 5. Stage 5

02.07 Population growth rates are lowest in _________ of the demographic transition. 1. Stage 1 2. Stage 2 3. Stage 3 4. Stage 4 5. Stage 5

02.08 Dependency ratios are highest in 1. Africa 2. South America 3. Europe 4. North America 5. East Asia

02.08 Dependency ratios are highest in 1. Africa 2. South America 3. Europe 4. North America 5. East Asia

02.09 According to Malthus, a growing population will eventually 1. Go to war with neighboring countries 2. Outgrow its food supply 3. Reach an infinite size 4. Be decimated by infectious diseases 5. Reach Stage 4

02.09 According to Malthus, a growing population will eventually 1. Go to war with neighboring countries 2. Outgrow its food supply 3. Reach an infinite size 4. Be decimated by infectious diseases 5. Reach Stage 4

02.10 The most lethal global epidemic disease in recent years has been 1. Tuberculosis 2. Malaria 3. AIDS 4. SARS 5. Ebola

02.10 The most lethal global epidemic disease in recent years has been 1. Tuberculosis 2. Malaria 3. AIDS 4. SARS 5. Ebola